The best thing to pull from those numbers isn't the contrast between COVID and the flu... It's the overall decrease in COVID deaths since March 28th:
March 28th: 2,659
April 4th: 7,932
April 11th: 11,864
April 18th: 9,333
April 25th: 2,167
Seems like the peak happened right around April 11th no? And if that's the case, Blue State Governors have lost the initiative and CAN NOT hide behind this slogan of "flatten the curve", the curve is about as flat as most of Joe Biden's victims at this point.
They claim to being using data, but they certainly aren't using it correctly. My state is looking at new cases over time to see how we should open. They are looking at the new cases and saying that there is an upward trend. Well if two weeks ago, when testing wasn't as robust, you test 500 people in a day and 30 came back negative, that is a downward trend compared to today when you test 2000 people and 80 come back positive. They are only looking at the numerator, and these values are not in like terms. Anyone with the slightest clue about how you look at data would know this. It is set up to fail.
Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)
Whether your state is using the alternative measure is an issue to take up with them.
Anyone wanting to discuss the "meta-science" behind testing, how the stats are gathered, are they comparable to other countries, can we estimate a mortality rate, etc., are labelled conspiracy theorists and bashed with "facts" consisting of sharing media articles and facebook memes.
I've tried explaining this many times to people on team apocalypse, but they still just hide behind "but the experts say..." or "I'll listen to the experts, not some rando-tRumper"
The "Percent of expected deaths" is at 97%, meaning that there are fewer total deaths than would be expected right now as a matter of routine. In other words, there is no spike in total deaths over what normally happens.
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).
I don't think they want to necessarily kill us, although the culling of the elderly and otherwise disabled is a major thing socialists love to do. That's at the most what I think they'd want it to do deathwise. Incapacitate us though, that definitely is something they'd preffer.
Data doesn't lie. It's the people that slice and dice it that lie. Slice the same data any number of ways and it can tell you a different story each time, particularly if you forget to mention how the other ways show a different story than what you're telling.
The best data seems to be hospitalizations, which is less vulnerable to testing surges or false death certificates. Hospitalizations peaked in NYC first week of April, and I suspect the rest of the country is close to that.
Yeah I love when you point out that the projections included these policies, and they go "we didn't overestimate the virus, we underestimated the policies!"
You were wrong. Just admit it and open up the states and let life get back to normal.
Asymptomatic is they had it, then have it again but not showing symptoms cause they’re immune to it? Is that what asymptomatic means?
Either way, totally agree.
If you look at my post history, I posted a article from my state saying that masks are mandatory now in stores and businesses. In the article they mention, people are walking around and have the froo but not showing symptoms.... well wouldn’t that mean that they had it and it’s actually herd immunity?!? Fuck these politicians and governors are either very VERY stupid, or know EXACTLY what they are doing. I really hope they are just stupid.
How do we know how many of the deaths in the column "Pneumonia, Influenza or COVID" will wind up being pneumonia or influenza, and how many will be COVID? It's confusing. Maybe that's the intent, to confuse rather than to inform?
I think "Pneumonia, Influenza or COVID" is their new "Infulenza-Like Illness" (ILI) classification.
Basically if someone has flu-like symptoms but they haven't specifically tested positive for COVID of Influenza they are considered to have "flu-like symptoms".
I'm honestly kind of shocked that they're rolling COVID in with all ILI. It will make it very easy to compare total flu deaths to past years with COVID's impact accounted for.
EDIT: Is this mostly just data lag? CDC numbers don't have this week. Also, I think this doc is missing the COVID + Pneumonia column which bumps up the overall numbers. Whether the data is right or not, I don't think they've changed anything drastic.
No, they grouped all of those together because they are usually respiratory deaths. Of the 54,217 deaths in that time frame, most are deaths from bacterial pneumonia, with the second being covid and the third being influenza.
In typical years, it's common to see 50,000 die of pneumonia and 5,000 die of influenza.
I haven't heard of a 100K number being reported anywhere? IMHE is showing 55,891 as of 4/27 and worldmeters is showing 63,856 as of 4/30.
39,748 died of bacterial pneumonia and influenza in 2016. 54,217 in 2017. It varies wildly from year to year. It looks like they are saying 42,000 have already died this year from pneumonia and influenza.
There's huge problem with this screenshot: This is through the week ending 2020-04-11. So, you can't compare it to the latest count of COVID-19 deaths.
The number of deaths as of 4/11 was 24,062. At first glance, that's about double the number of deaths reported by the CDC.
But, look at the footnote: Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.
So, how far back to we need to go to get a complete count from the CDC? I don't know, but we can work backwards to find out. For each date, CDC is from the table, WI is from the above URL:
Spez: all numbers are total numbers of deaths as of the week ending date. I added up the weekly number of deaths.
4/11, CDC: 11,356, WI: 24,062
4/04, CDC: 7,714, WI: 10,384
3/28, CDC: 2,802, WI: 2,754
3/22, CDC: 517, WI: 509
As you can see, the data converged to essentially the same values the week of 3/28.
But, what the originator of this screenshot really should have done: look at the latest data from the CDC:
What's the difference between the screenshot and the most recent data? SS is screenshot, CD is current data:
4/11: SS: 3,542, CD: 12,262
4/04, SS: 5,012, CD: 8,082
3/28, SS: 2,285, CD: 2,712
Are you starting to see the problem? These "revisions" are simply updating old data. Since the screenshot was made, I can see changes as long ago as the week ending 2/8.
So, let's repeat the same comparison between the CDC data and WorldInfometer data:
4/25, CDC: 37,308, WI: 54,256
4/18, CDC: 34,037, WI: 39,331
4/11, CDC: 23,629, WI: 24,062
As you can see, the number of deaths converged rapidly as you go back a couple of weeks.
The moral of this story: don't believe a screenshot that omits data.
While all of that is true, it doesnt really change the main points of the original screenshot. Which is to say that this virus is really not much worse than the flu. And we have vaccines for the flu. This virus might be less deadly than the flu.
What part of my posting was wrong? I'm tired of bullshit accusations, especially when I provided you detailed information and references.
Show me what's wrong, or withdraw your accusation.
Your screenshot was two weeks old. But even on your screenshot, it told you why the data appears to show a decline in deaths from COVID-19 in the final two weeks.
Two weeks later, you can see how the data for those weeks has changed. You can see it effects of the lag in data by simply comparing your screenshot to the most recent data.
You made that claim, but even the screenshot you posted showed you were wrong, because it said:
Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.
Again, what part of my posting was wrong? Be specific, rather than making another claim not supported by the data.
If it's influenza, you should be able to show that. "Wake me up" with actual data, not a bunch of hand-waving.
Trump has actual doctors advising him, not a random troll on the Internet that has no clue. Thank God he took this seriously, instead of listening to people like you.
The best thing to pull from those numbers isn't the contrast between COVID and the flu... It's the overall decrease in COVID deaths since March 28th:
March 28th: 2,659
April 4th: 7,932
April 11th: 11,864
April 18th: 9,333
April 25th: 2,167
Seems like the peak happened right around April 11th no? And if that's the case, Blue State Governors have lost the initiative and CAN NOT hide behind this slogan of "flatten the curve", the curve is about as flat as most of Joe Biden's victims at this point.
They abandoned flatten the curve back around April 11th, lol.
Now it's "nothing is worth one life". In other words, "We are not opening shit until this is gone."
They all claim to be using data to back up their decisions, but they're all ignoring the numbers in favor of just being scared, clearly.
No, I think it's more like 'we're shutting this down until early November so that the democrat can win the election'.
They claim to being using data, but they certainly aren't using it correctly. My state is looking at new cases over time to see how we should open. They are looking at the new cases and saying that there is an upward trend. Well if two weeks ago, when testing wasn't as robust, you test 500 people in a day and 30 came back negative, that is a downward trend compared to today when you test 2000 people and 80 come back positive. They are only looking at the numerator, and these values are not in like terms. Anyone with the slightest clue about how you look at data would know this. It is set up to fail.
An alternate criteria is the percentage of POSITIVE tests, as long as the number of tests are stable or increasing:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria
Whether your state is using the alternative measure is an issue to take up with them.
Anyone wanting to discuss the "meta-science" behind testing, how the stats are gathered, are they comparable to other countries, can we estimate a mortality rate, etc., are labelled conspiracy theorists and bashed with "facts" consisting of sharing media articles and facebook memes.
i jUSt cArE abUt dA sCienCE bRo!
“oh yeah? just wait two weeks!”
I've tried explaining this many times to people on team apocalypse, but they still just hide behind "but the experts say..." or "I'll listen to the experts, not some rando-tRumper"
It's civil war though. they are doing their job of distracting and war gaming us to see what we'll put up with.
Negotiating with terrorists is not my strength.
Bill of Rights is non negotiable. Alter or Abolish.
I'm not on team apocalypse of course, but you and everyone else on this thread are completely misreading the table.
Each row is the number of deaths THAT WEEK.
So there were 7,932 for the week of 4/4
2,167 for the week of 4/25
etc...
There's nothing suspicious about that.
Take a look at the total numbers at the top: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The "Percent of expected deaths" is at 97%, meaning that there are fewer total deaths than would be expected right now as a matter of routine. In other words, there is no spike in total deaths over what normally happens.
The current measure of 97% is considering the current total, which is under counted. The death certificate data lags at least 2 weeks.
Look at the individual weeks, like 4/4 and 4/11, where the data appears to be mostly complete (see this for an explanation: https://thedonald.win/p/FfWLiGwy/x/c/11QSCMNXhR).
In those weeks, it's 115% and 120%.
This was a test run to see how it would spread, and how we would react. The next one will be as transmissible, but way more deadly.
We should take out every virology lab in every hostile nation.
There is no justification for manufacturing viruses.
Just send the SF homeless to the bad guys
I don't think they want to necessarily kill us, although the culling of the elderly and otherwise disabled is a major thing socialists love to do. That's at the most what I think they'd want it to do deathwise. Incapacitate us though, that definitely is something they'd preffer.
Data doesn't lie. It's the people that slice and dice it that lie. Slice the same data any number of ways and it can tell you a different story each time, particularly if you forget to mention how the other ways show a different story than what you're telling.
very accurate
Judging by the "new deaths" numbers, we are over the peak and in roughly two weeks we'll be back to 0.
Time to start opening back up, retard Governors...
I’m pretty sure the peak happened way before these fucking retarded lockdowns started happening.
Yes.
Peak in testing is what caused a peak in reported cases. Asymptomatic infections are stupidly high.
It was almost like they designed a virus to have the highest infection rates possible but the lowest death rates. I wonder why they would do that?
If you look at the numbers in prisons where 75%+ have antibodies but less than a dozen people report systems it raises some questions.
How could China virus sweep through a prison and nobody even noticed?
The best data seems to be hospitalizations, which is less vulnerable to testing surges or false death certificates. Hospitalizations peaked in NYC first week of April, and I suspect the rest of the country is close to that.
Hospitalizations need to be the main piece of data, because this whole damn thing was about not overloading the hospitals in the first place.
Being off by only 700% is actually pretty good for these people.
Yeah I love when you point out that the projections included these policies, and they go "we didn't overestimate the virus, we underestimated the policies!"
You were wrong. Just admit it and open up the states and let life get back to normal.
According to the CDC more people were hospitalized with Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) during the 2017-2018 flu season by this point in the year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/EIPRates17_small.gif
Great point.
Asymptomatic is they had it, then have it again but not showing symptoms cause they’re immune to it? Is that what asymptomatic means?
Either way, totally agree.
If you look at my post history, I posted a article from my state saying that masks are mandatory now in stores and businesses. In the article they mention, people are walking around and have the froo but not showing symptoms.... well wouldn’t that mean that they had it and it’s actually herd immunity?!? Fuck these politicians and governors are either very VERY stupid, or know EXACTLY what they are doing. I really hope they are just stupid.
Asymptomatic just means they had it but had no symptoms of it. They had it without knowing.
So basically it went through entire prison systems entirely unnoticed because there was zero testing.
The data seems to show if we had ignored it entirely it would have gone almost unnoticed.
Ok. Yeah makes sense.
(a month ago)
These "new deaths" numbers are incomplete. See the footnote. Or see the most recent data:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
I explain it in more detail here:
https://thedonald.win/p/FfWLiGwy/x/c/11QSCMNXhR
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Thank you. Everyone that is interested, please look at the updated data, not a screenshot from two weeks ago.
Deep state op
Millions will starve to death in countries where a days wages = a handful of wheat/rice
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
shit just got real, maybe
edit: my link has higher numbers because it's the same spreadsheet but has 3 more weeks of data
Yes, the footnote explains the lag in counting the deaths at CDC. It's at least two weeks for most, but I noted changes in counts over a month ago.
How do we know how many of the deaths in the column "Pneumonia, Influenza or COVID" will wind up being pneumonia or influenza, and how many will be COVID? It's confusing. Maybe that's the intent, to confuse rather than to inform?
I think "Pneumonia, Influenza or COVID" is their new "Infulenza-Like Illness" (ILI) classification.
Basically if someone has flu-like symptoms but they haven't specifically tested positive for COVID of Influenza they are considered to have "flu-like symptoms".
I'm honestly kind of shocked that they're rolling COVID in with all ILI. It will make it very easy to compare total flu deaths to past years with COVID's impact accounted for.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
WTF? Other places are still listing like ~64k.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
EDIT: Is this mostly just data lag? CDC numbers don't have this week. Also, I think this doc is missing the COVID + Pneumonia column which bumps up the overall numbers. Whether the data is right or not, I don't think they've changed anything drastic.
Yes, it's data lag. If you compare the CDC data to the source you cited, they are very close once you go back about two weeks.
More info here: https://thedonald.win/p/FfWLiGwy/x/c/11QSCMNXhR
How am I "losing"?
I see you refusing to answer my question: what error is in my posting?
link please
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
It doesn't 404 for me.
As the numbers get closer and closer to the seasonal flu, they're gonna revise previous flu seasons downward. Just watch.
No, they grouped all of those together because they are usually respiratory deaths. Of the 54,217 deaths in that time frame, most are deaths from bacterial pneumonia, with the second being covid and the third being influenza.
In typical years, it's common to see 50,000 die of pneumonia and 5,000 die of influenza.
I haven't heard of a 100K number being reported anywhere? IMHE is showing 55,891 as of 4/27 and worldmeters is showing 63,856 as of 4/30.
39,748 died of bacterial pneumonia and influenza in 2016. 54,217 in 2017. It varies wildly from year to year. It looks like they are saying 42,000 have already died this year from pneumonia and influenza.
The footnote of the column explains:
Source link please?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
Yuuuuge!
Ooh, what's the source on this?
Is this being downvoted?
Spez: is it even possible to downvote a post?
That's as of the 16th
There's huge problem with this screenshot: This is through the week ending 2020-04-11. So, you can't compare it to the latest count of COVID-19 deaths.
From this different source of data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The number of deaths as of 4/11 was 24,062. At first glance, that's about double the number of deaths reported by the CDC.
But, look at the footnote: Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.
So, how far back to we need to go to get a complete count from the CDC? I don't know, but we can work backwards to find out. For each date, CDC is from the table, WI is from the above URL:
Spez: all numbers are total numbers of deaths as of the week ending date. I added up the weekly number of deaths.
As you can see, the data converged to essentially the same values the week of 3/28.
But, what the originator of this screenshot really should have done: look at the latest data from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
What's the difference between the screenshot and the most recent data? SS is screenshot, CD is current data:
Are you starting to see the problem? These "revisions" are simply updating old data. Since the screenshot was made, I can see changes as long ago as the week ending 2/8.
So, let's repeat the same comparison between the CDC data and WorldInfometer data:
As you can see, the number of deaths converged rapidly as you go back a couple of weeks.
The moral of this story: don't believe a screenshot that omits data.
Thank you for posting this. Everyone on the thread is misreading the data.
Yeah, but you can see that's an unpopular set of facts.
While all of that is true, it doesnt really change the main points of the original screenshot. Which is to say that this virus is really not much worse than the flu. And we have vaccines for the flu. This virus might be less deadly than the flu.
What part of my posting was wrong? I'm tired of bullshit accusations, especially when I provided you detailed information and references.
Show me what's wrong, or withdraw your accusation.
Your screenshot was two weeks old. But even on your screenshot, it told you why the data appears to show a decline in deaths from COVID-19 in the final two weeks.
Two weeks later, you can see how the data for those weeks has changed. You can see it effects of the lag in data by simply comparing your screenshot to the most recent data.
You made that claim, but even the screenshot you posted showed you were wrong, because it said:
Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.
Again, what part of my posting was wrong? Be specific, rather than making another claim not supported by the data.
If it's influenza, you should be able to show that. "Wake me up" with actual data, not a bunch of hand-waving.
Trump has actual doctors advising him, not a random troll on the Internet that has no clue. Thank God he took this seriously, instead of listening to people like you.
This must be bullshit or the news would be everywhere not just some “holy shit” screenshot
I’m sad we both support the president given how much of a neck beard piece of shit you are.
I went through your posts and comments and they were the biggest waste of space since Jon Karl.
One thought.... what if CONFIRMED flu deaths are not included in that 55k list?
That would mean some of those 55 thousand deaths may actually be covid.
What horrible reasoning for anything.
Remember ABC squashing Epstein?
don't be so gullible lol "the news" is not your friend. that mafia doesn't even take care of its own.
It’s not even on right wing sites dumb ass.