I am not sure personally but I will say I feel we have an implicit bias to assume that in the 21st century we are through with things like famines, and we are so used to there being food at grocery stores it is hard for us to conceptualize a shortage.
On the flip side, the problems at the grocery stores we are seeing now seem to be caused more by distribution issues than necessarily supply issues, so I am trying to more fully understand what's happening and I'd like y'all's opinions.
We have a food packaging problem.
We went from a 50/50% grocery and restaurant product distribution to a 90/10% grocery and restaurant distribution.
The product packaged for restaurants can't be sold at the grocery store for the most part.
Never been a disruption like this before.
Things probably shifted for WWII, I imagine.
But yeah, this is a huge shakeup.
I agree it's more of a distribution issue.
But I do think the price of food will go up and people will have to make adjustments.
Temporarily. Things will readjust and food prices will go back down to rock-bottom prices.
We have a union problem.
If the Demonrats think it will harm the greatest Potus ever I've no doubt they would attempt to cause a shortage of food. However as my dad used to say. Even a coward will fight when he gets the miss meal colic.
Bottlenecks in the supply chain creates a shortage on one side and a glut on the other side. The glut side will cull or til rather than continue the expense of production. The shortage side leads to empty shelves and higher prices. There is going to be a lag on the production (glut) side when the bottleneck resolves. If the bottleneck lasts long enough, production will decrease through loss of producers or the lag in seed to harvest or birth to market size. Production will ultimately drop to what the bottleneck can throughput. Demand may remain stable, increase or decrease depending on the elasticity of the product. If demand drops some markets may face permanent loss due to substitution.
If the lockdowns and virus continue, it’s probably going to get bad. If we get back to work the impacts should be lessened. Restaurant and stadium demand may be permanently reduced. Airline demand may remain low, as will oil demand.
Food banks are full. If people need food, send them to the food banks, they won't turn them away.
Don't buy extra. I wouldn't even stock up right now. Just buy what you eat, let the market figure it out.
When things stabilize, then you can start stocking up on non-perishables.
Our supply chains will be very strong. If needed, he can send in the army to the packaging and distribution centers. It probably won't be needed.
No, just more msm fodder to keep the anxiety up.
My liberal neighbors might, but I’ll be fine.
/Laughs in 2A.
NO FOOD SHORTAGE IS ON THE WAY.
We are seeing a massive shift in the eating habits of the average American. We aren't eating mountains of cheeseburgers and french fries right now, so the food industry needs to shift away from french fry potatoes, burger meat, and processed cheese. Onions and tomatoes too.
The farmers of America are not stupid. Do you think they could survive so long as a farmer by making bad bets and huge mistakes?
I think this pandemic caught most farmers off guard, so whether they are stupid or smart is irrelevant to their inability to plan for something like this.
I think most farmers were prepared for almost every possible imaginable scenario. This was one of them.
I know that even for startups (which I am most familiar) that disaster planning often takes on ridiculous scenarios. For instance, we routinely plan what would happen if half the US gets nuked. We talk about entire areas of the world just simply disappearing, transformed into fundamental particles. We talk about people figuring out how to break all the encryption in the world. We talk about markets and economies shifting in ways unimaginable to the layperson.
If we do this, and we're being paid to gamble with other people's money, you can bet farmers are doing the same. If not individually, then they form coops to do this sort of thinking for them. It doesn't take much money to hire people who help with planning for the unplannable.