I've got 5 toss-up states added into the mix we could talk about, and I'll give my takes.
The toss-up states, in my opinion, are Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine.
Nevada was won by Clinton with 2.42% more than Donald Trump. Important to note is that Gary Johnson got a lot of support in 2016. In Nevada he got 3.29% of the vote. It's obvious that Libertarians align more with Republicans than they do Democrats, so now that Johnson is out of the running and Jorgensen has taken his place, I think a lot of those Libertarian votes will go to Trump in 2020; not only do I think this because Jorgensen isn't as known a politician as Johnson was, and she doesn't have the same level of publicity as Johnson had, but also Trump has shaken off all of the #NeverTrumpers that were dragging him down in a lot of these states. People like Crowder, Shaprio, and Beck who were Never Trumpers are now fully on the Trump Train. In addition to this, I think a lot of people in Reno and especially Las Vegas might be upset at the Democrat-imposed restrictions on businesses for the Corona outbreak. Those restrictions have damaged a lot of businesses, and Republicans have always been the party that seeks to promote businesses and lessen restrictions, while Democrats are the party of Socialism and harsh restrictions. I think Nevada could go Trump in 2020.
Then there is Colorado. I know Colorado is a pretty blue state, but Clinton only won it by 4.91%. And again, Johnson picked up 5.18% of the vote here, and now that he's out much of that could go back to Trump. Will that be enough to seize Colorado for Trump? I don't know. What applies to this state and all of the other 50 states is the fact that Biden won't get the women vote like Clinton got. Sure he'll get some women who just vote straight Democrat every election, but he won't get the same amount as Hillary got. Trump's 51% of white women who voted for him might go even higher this year because of that. If they stuck with Trump through "grab her by the pussy" and the Rosie O'Donnell stuff, then I don't see why they would abandon him now. In addition to this, a lot of these western states and many northern states don't have many blacks, which will be Biden's strength because of his connection to Obama. Colorado could go red, I think, or maybe not.
Then Florida, which only voted for Trump by 1.2% over Clinton, it might be in jeopardy now. Trump got 28% of the Hispanic vote I believe, but if that's dropped, and considering there are many blacks in Florida who will vote Biden, it might swing blue this year. If Trump's support there has strengthened with blacks and Hispanics then he'll win again, otherwise it's in trouble. And again, Gary Johnson got 2.2% of the vote here, so that will help Trump too if many go to Trump.
Now Pennsylvania is Biden's home state, but I really don't see him winning this. Trump won last time by 0.72%. The recurring theme again, is that Johnson's 2.38% voters might go over to Trump this year. In addition to that, the Democrat's didn't come out in the same numbers for the Pennsylvania 2020 Democratic Primary as they did in the 2016 Democratic Primary. There were 66,013 fewer Democrat voters that voted in the 2020 primary than there were in 2016. To me, this indicates that the Democrats lost support here. Also, not a lot of blacks here, so Biden's black vote won't matter much. I think this goes to Trump again in 2020.
Finally Maine, which voted for Clinton by 2.96% more than Trump. Johnson got 5.09% of the vote there too. I don't live in Maine, and I hear they do something like "ranked voting" there but I haven't been able to find anything about this. So if you're in Maine, let me know if this is true: I was told Maine voting works where you vote for your top candidates in order of how much you want them to win, so if you voted for Gary Johnson first, then Trump second, and Clinton third, your first vote goes to Johnson; now if Johnson doesn't have enough votes to win then the votes go to the next in line which would be Trump. That's what I was told, I'm not too sure though. Regardless, Trump has been helping Maine out lately, so maybe they'll remember that come election day. If the Never Trumpers are all but destroyed, then I think they might come out too and help Trump win the entire state there and not just a single district.
Anyway, let me know what you guys think about this, and if you have your own predictions. You can make your own maps here if you want to share one: https://www.270towin.com/
Yeah, although like we saw with Clinton who got pretty bad turnout at her rallies (although surprisingly she got much more than Biden has ever gotten) I think Democrats are more likely to fall in line and vote how their party wants them to (NPCs) than Republicans are to do the same for a straight Republican ticket.
And I'm not even really factoring in the three debates yet either, because we don't know how those will turn out. Although I'm confident that Biden's stupidity and brainlessness will be aired on National TV for all to see, and that will definitely hurt him come voting time.
I've got 5 toss-up states added into the mix we could talk about, and I'll give my takes.
The toss-up states, in my opinion, are Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine.
Nevada was won by Clinton with 2.42% more than Donald Trump. Important to note is that Gary Johnson got a lot of support in 2016. In Nevada he got 3.29% of the vote. It's obvious that Libertarians align more with Republicans than they do Democrats, so now that Johnson is out of the running and Jorgensen has taken his place, I think a lot of those Libertarian votes will go to Trump in 2020; not only do I think this because Jorgensen isn't as known a politician as Johnson was, and she doesn't have the same level of publicity as Johnson had, but also Trump has shaken off all of the #NeverTrumpers that were dragging him down in a lot of these states. People like Crowder, Shaprio, and Beck who were Never Trumpers are now fully on the Trump Train. In addition to this, I think a lot of people in Reno and especially Las Vegas might be upset at the Democrat-imposed restrictions on businesses for the Corona outbreak. Those restrictions have damaged a lot of businesses, and Republicans have always been the party that seeks to promote businesses and lessen restrictions, while Democrats are the party of Socialism and harsh restrictions. I think Nevada could go Trump in 2020.
Then there is Colorado. I know Colorado is a pretty blue state, but Clinton only won it by 4.91%. And again, Johnson picked up 5.18% of the vote here, and now that he's out much of that could go back to Trump. Will that be enough to seize Colorado for Trump? I don't know. What applies to this state and all of the other 50 states is the fact that Biden won't get the women vote like Clinton got. Sure he'll get some women who just vote straight Democrat every election, but he won't get the same amount as Hillary got. Trump's 51% of white women who voted for him might go even higher this year because of that. If they stuck with Trump through "grab her by the pussy" and the Rosie O'Donnell stuff, then I don't see why they would abandon him now. In addition to this, a lot of these western states and many northern states don't have many blacks, which will be Biden's strength because of his connection to Obama. Colorado could go red, I think, or maybe not.
Then Florida, which only voted for Trump by 1.2% over Clinton, it might be in jeopardy now. Trump got 28% of the Hispanic vote I believe, but if that's dropped, and considering there are many blacks in Florida who will vote Biden, it might swing blue this year. If Trump's support there has strengthened with blacks and Hispanics then he'll win again, otherwise it's in trouble. And again, Gary Johnson got 2.2% of the vote here, so that will help Trump too if many go to Trump.
Now Pennsylvania is Biden's home state, but I really don't see him winning this. Trump won last time by 0.72%. The recurring theme again, is that Johnson's 2.38% voters might go over to Trump this year. In addition to that, the Democrat's didn't come out in the same numbers for the Pennsylvania 2020 Democratic Primary as they did in the 2016 Democratic Primary. There were 66,013 fewer Democrat voters that voted in the 2020 primary than there were in 2016. To me, this indicates that the Democrats lost support here. Also, not a lot of blacks here, so Biden's black vote won't matter much. I think this goes to Trump again in 2020.
Finally Maine, which voted for Clinton by 2.96% more than Trump. Johnson got 5.09% of the vote there too. I don't live in Maine, and I hear they do something like "ranked voting" there but I haven't been able to find anything about this. So if you're in Maine, let me know if this is true: I was told Maine voting works where you vote for your top candidates in order of how much you want them to win, so if you voted for Gary Johnson first, then Trump second, and Clinton third, your first vote goes to Johnson; now if Johnson doesn't have enough votes to win then the votes go to the next in line which would be Trump. That's what I was told, I'm not too sure though. Regardless, Trump has been helping Maine out lately, so maybe they'll remember that come election day. If the Never Trumpers are all but destroyed, then I think they might come out too and help Trump win the entire state there and not just a single district.
Anyway, let me know what you guys think about this, and if you have your own predictions. You can make your own maps here if you want to share one: https://www.270towin.com/
Idk about Michigan. Looking at these sources for the 2016 primaries: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/michigan ; and then for the 2020 primaries: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/michigan/ it looks like the Democrats there picked up 391,215 more primary voters than in 2016. I expect many are blacks, because of Detroit and other high black population areas. Not sure why else the Democrats would have gotten that many new voters.
It's possible we win Michigan again, although I'm not too certain. We only won by 0.23% last time, it will be close either way.
Yeah, although like we saw with Clinton who got pretty bad turnout at her rallies (although surprisingly she got much more than Biden has ever gotten) I think Democrats are more likely to fall in line and vote how their party wants them to (NPCs) than Republicans are to do the same for a straight Republican ticket.
And I'm not even really factoring in the three debates yet either, because we don't know how those will turn out. Although I'm confident that Biden's stupidity and brainlessness will be aired on National TV for all to see, and that will definitely hurt him come voting time.