Copied this from another poster in another site I read:
Anyone with an hour to spend researching can tell you that the reason for the "positives" spike in Texas is primarily due to the increased number of tests and the Black Lives Matter Protests. But here's some statistical proof.
I used my data from this website, which I believe is a respected data aggregator: WorldOMeters
In April, Texas was on lock down like the rest of the country. During that period, we averaged 808.5 new cases per day (with a range from 402 – 1,359 and, taking out the three highest and lowest days, a range of 629-1,122 cases per day). We averaged 21.7 deaths per day (with a range from 4-59 and taking out the three highest and lowest days, a range of 14-35). Very consistent. This is your baseline.
Key dates for you: May 1, Texas "re-opens" with restaurants at 25% capacity. On May 22, we went to restaurants at 50% and bars at 25%. On June 12, we went to 75%. May 25 is Memorial Day. May 29-June 9 is the heyday of the George Floyd Protests in Texas, particularly Houston. June 2 is the biggest day for the protests.
The Impact of "Reopening": Average cases in May did increase over April. For the month of May, average new cases per day increased to 1,176 (a 45% increase). Deaths also increased to an average of 28.5 per day in May (31% increase, which is the beginning of the disassociation of deaths with cases). Now, new cases lag about 5 to 12 days. So let's use 14 to be safe to test the impact of the reopening. The average number of new cases from May 14-31 (with May 14 being two weeks after reopening) was not much higher than the average in May itself. 1,188.7 v. 1,176.
The Impact of Memorial Day: There was an increase in cases following Memorial Day as the reopening was in full bore and people pent up all spring cut loose. In the 14 days after Memorial Day, the average new case per day went up to 1468. That's another 25% increase over average May numbers.
So yes, there is evidence to say that cases and deaths increased post-reopening and post-Memorial Day, with cases increasing at a higher rate than deaths.
Now here's where it gets interesting.
The Impact of the BLM Protests:
The June Floyd protests kicked off in earnest the weekend following Memorial Day. On June 2, 60,000 people marched together in Houston. Protests were rampant in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.
Let's look at the data from June 16-yesterday, which is the 12 day period beginning two weeks after the big Houston protest. As a reminder:
Average Cases:
April 808.5 cases per day
May, 1,176 cases per day
May 14-31, 1,188 cases per day
Post Memorial Day, 1,468 cases per day
So what do you think we have seen in the past two weeks since the BLM protests:
An average of 4,789 cases per day!
Now, it is not all the protests. There is another factor at play here - testing. We started April with about 5,000 daily tests and ended April with 20,000 tests per day. In May we started testing into the 35,000 test per day range. And in June we got above 40,000, including a record 62,782 tests performed on June 19.
The number of people testing positive who are asymptomatic is rising. That is a promising thing. And that is borne out because, even though we are averaging 3x as many cases now per day than post-Memorial Day, the number of deaths per day is pretty flat. For June it is at 32.5 deaths per day compared to 28.7 in May and 21.7 in April. (In fact the death per day figures for June are better than the "first spike" we saw in April. In the end of March we were seeing only 300 cases per day and 20.5 deaths per day. From April 1-3, we saw a spike in cases to 664 per day. Two weeks later we saw a spike in deaths to 36.3 per day). So this is encouraging. Despite now seeing 8x more cases, the death rate is not spiking.
This will be a key week in Texas as we are just now beginning to get to the crucial two week mark since we saw the post-George Floyd spike in cases. Yesterday we had 39 deaths and we had 33 on Friday. I expect that number to climb a bit but if it doesn't climb 3X, then the increased testing simply means we are finding that this virus is not as deadly as we thought. People are testing positive but they aren't dying. But that's for another thread.
The point of this thread is that while the reopening in Texas had an impact on new cases, the two biggest drivers of this increase are the testing and the BLM protests earlier this month. Now you have proof. Don't let the media tell you otherwise and try to pin this on Abbott.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Go look at the daily deaths. Of course it’s a trailing indicator, moron, but they are still falling. Keep pushing your fear narrative faggot
Let me guess, not a single rioter or looter caught COVID, right?
🚁🚁DEPORT🚁🚁🚁
Copied this from another poster in another site I read:
Anyone with an hour to spend researching can tell you that the reason for the "positives" spike in Texas is primarily due to the increased number of tests and the Black Lives Matter Protests. But here's some statistical proof.
I used my data from this website, which I believe is a respected data aggregator: WorldOMeters
In April, Texas was on lock down like the rest of the country. During that period, we averaged 808.5 new cases per day (with a range from 402 – 1,359 and, taking out the three highest and lowest days, a range of 629-1,122 cases per day). We averaged 21.7 deaths per day (with a range from 4-59 and taking out the three highest and lowest days, a range of 14-35). Very consistent. This is your baseline.
Key dates for you: May 1, Texas "re-opens" with restaurants at 25% capacity. On May 22, we went to restaurants at 50% and bars at 25%. On June 12, we went to 75%. May 25 is Memorial Day. May 29-June 9 is the heyday of the George Floyd Protests in Texas, particularly Houston. June 2 is the biggest day for the protests.
The Impact of "Reopening": Average cases in May did increase over April. For the month of May, average new cases per day increased to 1,176 (a 45% increase). Deaths also increased to an average of 28.5 per day in May (31% increase, which is the beginning of the disassociation of deaths with cases). Now, new cases lag about 5 to 12 days. So let's use 14 to be safe to test the impact of the reopening. The average number of new cases from May 14-31 (with May 14 being two weeks after reopening) was not much higher than the average in May itself. 1,188.7 v. 1,176.
The Impact of Memorial Day: There was an increase in cases following Memorial Day as the reopening was in full bore and people pent up all spring cut loose. In the 14 days after Memorial Day, the average new case per day went up to 1468. That's another 25% increase over average May numbers.
So yes, there is evidence to say that cases and deaths increased post-reopening and post-Memorial Day, with cases increasing at a higher rate than deaths.
Now here's where it gets interesting.
The Impact of the BLM Protests:
The June Floyd protests kicked off in earnest the weekend following Memorial Day. On June 2, 60,000 people marched together in Houston. Protests were rampant in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.
Let's look at the data from June 16-yesterday, which is the 12 day period beginning two weeks after the big Houston protest. As a reminder:
Average Cases: April 808.5 cases per day May, 1,176 cases per day May 14-31, 1,188 cases per day Post Memorial Day, 1,468 cases per day
So what do you think we have seen in the past two weeks since the BLM protests:
An average of 4,789 cases per day!
Now, it is not all the protests. There is another factor at play here - testing. We started April with about 5,000 daily tests and ended April with 20,000 tests per day. In May we started testing into the 35,000 test per day range. And in June we got above 40,000, including a record 62,782 tests performed on June 19.
The number of people testing positive who are asymptomatic is rising. That is a promising thing. And that is borne out because, even though we are averaging 3x as many cases now per day than post-Memorial Day, the number of deaths per day is pretty flat. For June it is at 32.5 deaths per day compared to 28.7 in May and 21.7 in April. (In fact the death per day figures for June are better than the "first spike" we saw in April. In the end of March we were seeing only 300 cases per day and 20.5 deaths per day. From April 1-3, we saw a spike in cases to 664 per day. Two weeks later we saw a spike in deaths to 36.3 per day). So this is encouraging. Despite now seeing 8x more cases, the death rate is not spiking.
This will be a key week in Texas as we are just now beginning to get to the crucial two week mark since we saw the post-George Floyd spike in cases. Yesterday we had 39 deaths and we had 33 on Friday. I expect that number to climb a bit but if it doesn't climb 3X, then the increased testing simply means we are finding that this virus is not as deadly as we thought. People are testing positive but they aren't dying. But that's for another thread.
The point of this thread is that while the reopening in Texas had an impact on new cases, the two biggest drivers of this increase are the testing and the BLM protests earlier this month. Now you have proof. Don't let the media tell you otherwise and try to pin this on Abbott.
Excellent post!
Covid911