I was thinking about viruses in the frame of evolution and natural selection and yesterday.
I once heard that ultra deadly viruses like Ebola typically don't lead to worldwide pandemics because they kill their hosts before they have time to transfer it.
It seems to reason that being extremely deadly isn't advantageous for a virus.
Hypothesis - most of the ultra deadly covid bugs died with their hosts, and only the non-deadly, super contagious ones are left.
This hypothesis seems to satisfy the observation of new cases rising, while deaths fall.
I'm not expert - but I'm curious to hear why this is/isn't a possible theory. Do viruses not mutate as quickly as this theory suggests?
Let’s ask Chyna!
Initially we did not know the true spread of the virus because of limited testing and vast majority of cases being completely asymptomatic. Now, with testing ramped up, everyone that wants to be tested is tested, and everyone one in the hospital is tested. This leads to the massive explosion in positive cases we are seeing, which was previously present but invisible.
A good map of Wuhan Virus strains can be found here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
If you color the map by clade, you can see US has a good assortment of different strains. Some of them are probably more deadly than others.
Generally, evolutionary pressure forces viruses to not be super deadly - the "goal " of any virus is not to kill it's victim, but to spread. You are right here.
However, any real info about the number of cases and death rate is buried under so much propaganda and political interests it would take a dedicated team and weeks of research time to try and cut through the bullshit. Take your best guess about the deadliness, it would be as good as any.
Great reply - thanks for the thoughtful response!
BTW - that website you linked is amazing
The hosts of the deadly version dressed in black and stood on a highway at night.
or the people who were most susceptible have left the pool.
that's how virus work, they mutate with each cycle of reproduction