I wouldn't take this as gospel. This model is only analyzing enthusiasm for the two candidates, and doesn't take into account enthusiasm against them. The media has done an absolute bang up job of getting people riled up against Trump. And it's not just fake news; I see an absolute tedious amount of Trump bashing from people in know in real life on social media, to an extent that was never there with GWB. The Dems could run an empty suit (not far from the actual situation) and half of the country would feverishly vote for it.
Fact is that Trump is toast if he doesn't make something happen. His campaign to date doesn't have the same definition that it had in '16. He also needs some big news to break his way, something the public is generally with the GOP on, like another Guatemalan migrant crisis or Muslim terrorist attack. If the election were held today, he would lose.
I wouldn't take this as gospel. This model is only analyzing enthusiasm for the two candidates, and doesn't take into account enthusiasm against them. The media has done an absolute bang up job of getting people riled up against Trump. And it's not just fake news; I see an absolute tedious amount of Trump bashing from people in know in real life on social media, to an extent that was never there with GWB. The Dems could run an empty suit (not far from the actual situation) and half of the country would feverishly vote for it.
Fact is that Trump is toast if he doesn't make something happen. His campaign to date doesn't have the same definition that it had in '16. He also needs some big news to break his way, something the public is generally with the GOP on, like another Guatemalan migrant crisis or Muslim terrorist attack. If the election were held today, he would lose.
Lots of Dem indictments through Maxwell would help, or even Reps...