I think that maybe China wants someone to prevent a power vacuum from forming in Afghanistan, to prevent Russia from geting its hands on it. Once Russia croaks, China will no longer need placeholders there, and will be able to spread its influence there. Then it will no longer try to push for US troop presence in the region.
Also, the US sending soldiers anywhere costs money, and why not exhaust the resources of your enemy/competitor on the global arena while you're at it.
Russia failed in Afghanistan when they had a good military. They might have an in through a proxy like Syria or Iran but I'm not sure what the play would be exactly. A baseless invasion would not go well for any nation especially a large one. Best they could do is fund anti-Taliban forces- which would be pretty cheap.
Also, the US sending soldiers anywhere costs money, and why not exhaust the resources of your enemy/competitor on the global arena while you're at it.
this is the most convincing argument. i'm just not convinced that china had to do much, if any convincing. clearly many in our government want our troops there still. again, I think our companies benefit from this more than china. I could see China doing it just to fuck us and Russia potentially.
If there is an even momentary power vacuum near Russia, it'll have its "green men" there in no time under all sorts of bullshit pretenses. Just like they did in Ossetia and Crimea. Whether the invasion is baseless or not is simply a question of who gives a damn. Nobody wants to fight Russia, as war is expensive and if you're not going to capture some kind of resource rich region, what good will it do?
Also, Russia failed in Afghanistan because the CIA actively trained the taliban forces, and even though having a powerful military makes it easy to capture new territory, it's still very vulnerable to guerrilla warfare.
Maybe these companies are benefiting, but overall I suspect the expenses of having a force overseas may be just about as big as the profit...
You misunderstood, I meant an invasion by China would not work on the int'l stage. Not Russia, they don't really care and sure- that is how they would do it as you described. The question is, would they be successful or would the Taliban not just galvanize even more support from the Afghan ppl, Pakis, ISIS, Indian extremist groups, etc.
China has investment there so I suppose preserving the status quo is a reasonable strategy for them. I'd just think they would have potential for even more presence if we weren't there, at least from where I sit.
China is deeply involved in mining rare earth minerals in Afghanistan. The US military operating in the region is acting as a defacto security force for the Chinese. Our guys are perceived by the jihadis as an invading army. We are seen by the more militantly minded locals as "the bad guys". I would bet dollars to doughnuts Chinese intelligence does a lot to help the jihadis see us that way. If we brought our soldiers home some of the locals might just get the idea into their head that Afghanistan's prescious resources should be mined by afghanis and sold to enrich Afghanistan, not China. How would we feel if China showed up in all the US oil fields and began milking them dry without hiring any Americans to work the fields and without any money from the sale of that oil going to Americans?
it's hard to make this argument while not simultaneously tacitly making an argument for us to stay. if this is indeed china's play- why not stay and reap the benes instead?
the chinese are def funding some of the jihadis either directly or indirectly but it's not like that is a new thing in the region. perhaps they are playing both sides of the equation: either force us to stay due to the almost unwinnable situation while they continue to profit or just continually underming whatever we do there for shits and giggles and to rat fuck us good.
i'm not convinced they have a unique longterm strategy there aside from their normal influence peddling and debt and aid traps.
my hunch is the chicoms use the drug trade more as a destabilizing force than a source of large amounts of profit. probably a mix of both. I know there are estimated to be a few trillion in mining resources there. the entire global drug trade is maybe 1/6 of that and heroin is like the cheapest drug.
China pulls opium resources out of Afghanistan to supply the pharma manufacturers, which are all in China. Then sells the pills at a massive markup to the the US. China gets rich, the US wastes it's money protecting the poppy fields, and they destabilize the US by creating mass drug addicts that foment chaos and demand resources. China has been slowbleeding the US for a very long time.
why do you think china wants us in afghanistan?
I think that maybe China wants someone to prevent a power vacuum from forming in Afghanistan, to prevent Russia from geting its hands on it. Once Russia croaks, China will no longer need placeholders there, and will be able to spread its influence there. Then it will no longer try to push for US troop presence in the region.
Also, the US sending soldiers anywhere costs money, and why not exhaust the resources of your enemy/competitor on the global arena while you're at it.
Russia failed in Afghanistan when they had a good military. They might have an in through a proxy like Syria or Iran but I'm not sure what the play would be exactly. A baseless invasion would not go well for any nation especially a large one. Best they could do is fund anti-Taliban forces- which would be pretty cheap.
this is the most convincing argument. i'm just not convinced that china had to do much, if any convincing. clearly many in our government want our troops there still. again, I think our companies benefit from this more than china. I could see China doing it just to fuck us and Russia potentially.
If there is an even momentary power vacuum near Russia, it'll have its "green men" there in no time under all sorts of bullshit pretenses. Just like they did in Ossetia and Crimea. Whether the invasion is baseless or not is simply a question of who gives a damn. Nobody wants to fight Russia, as war is expensive and if you're not going to capture some kind of resource rich region, what good will it do?
Also, Russia failed in Afghanistan because the CIA actively trained the taliban forces, and even though having a powerful military makes it easy to capture new territory, it's still very vulnerable to guerrilla warfare.
Maybe these companies are benefiting, but overall I suspect the expenses of having a force overseas may be just about as big as the profit...
You misunderstood, I meant an invasion by China would not work on the int'l stage. Not Russia, they don't really care and sure- that is how they would do it as you described. The question is, would they be successful or would the Taliban not just galvanize even more support from the Afghan ppl, Pakis, ISIS, Indian extremist groups, etc.
China has investment there so I suppose preserving the status quo is a reasonable strategy for them. I'd just think they would have potential for even more presence if we weren't there, at least from where I sit.
Because they will buy support vs india + the u.s. secure the lithium and they mine it and opium access
buy support from the US?
In the form of bribes/blackmail
wouldn't it be cheaper to pay off the Taliban? China would have the edge over the Russians for sure and India too.
China is deeply involved in mining rare earth minerals in Afghanistan. The US military operating in the region is acting as a defacto security force for the Chinese. Our guys are perceived by the jihadis as an invading army. We are seen by the more militantly minded locals as "the bad guys". I would bet dollars to doughnuts Chinese intelligence does a lot to help the jihadis see us that way. If we brought our soldiers home some of the locals might just get the idea into their head that Afghanistan's prescious resources should be mined by afghanis and sold to enrich Afghanistan, not China. How would we feel if China showed up in all the US oil fields and began milking them dry without hiring any Americans to work the fields and without any money from the sale of that oil going to Americans?
it's hard to make this argument while not simultaneously tacitly making an argument for us to stay. if this is indeed china's play- why not stay and reap the benes instead?
the chinese are def funding some of the jihadis either directly or indirectly but it's not like that is a new thing in the region. perhaps they are playing both sides of the equation: either force us to stay due to the almost unwinnable situation while they continue to profit or just continually underming whatever we do there for shits and giggles and to rat fuck us good.
i'm not convinced they have a unique longterm strategy there aside from their normal influence peddling and debt and aid traps.
Heroin trade?
my hunch is the chicoms use the drug trade more as a destabilizing force than a source of large amounts of profit. probably a mix of both. I know there are estimated to be a few trillion in mining resources there. the entire global drug trade is maybe 1/6 of that and heroin is like the cheapest drug.
Revenge for the opium wars
China pulls opium resources out of Afghanistan to supply the pharma manufacturers, which are all in China. Then sells the pills at a massive markup to the the US. China gets rich, the US wastes it's money protecting the poppy fields, and they destabilize the US by creating mass drug addicts that foment chaos and demand resources. China has been slowbleeding the US for a very long time.