If there is an even momentary power vacuum near Russia, it'll have its "green men" there in no time under all sorts of bullshit pretenses. Just like they did in Ossetia and Crimea. Whether the invasion is baseless or not is simply a question of who gives a damn. Nobody wants to fight Russia, as war is expensive and if you're not going to capture some kind of resource rich region, what good will it do?
Also, Russia failed in Afghanistan because the CIA actively trained the taliban forces, and even though having a powerful military makes it easy to capture new territory, it's still very vulnerable to guerrilla warfare.
Maybe these companies are benefiting, but overall I suspect the expenses of having a force overseas may be just about as big as the profit...
You misunderstood, I meant an invasion by China would not work on the int'l stage. Not Russia, they don't really care and sure- that is how they would do it as you described. The question is, would they be successful or would the Taliban not just galvanize even more support from the Afghan ppl, Pakis, ISIS, Indian extremist groups, etc.
China has investment there so I suppose preserving the status quo is a reasonable strategy for them. I'd just think they would have potential for even more presence if we weren't there, at least from where I sit.
This guy gets it. That hits all the main points as I see it. China can lurk either way but I imagine they would just swoop in and be a much more passive version of us if we left.
Ergo I didn't understand dude's point about them conspiring to keep us there, although I like to hear theories on this stuff. I am certainly no expert on Afghanistan, although I have seen Rambo III about 50 times.
Oh, well China's doctrine is not focused on grabbing territory using its army. It is much more patient. China can focus on economic influence, and it would be very convenient if they can spread their tentacles in the shadows, when someone else (like the US for example) is in the spotlight, being a target for the angry population. They can also strive for a demographic change, very much like the muslim invasion of Europe.
For example: Russia's failing economy relies on China to play ball (at least with the construction of the new oil/gas pipeline from Asia to Europe, which had cost a fortune and failed). As part of the agreements between Russia and China, large parts of Siberia have been leased for exploitation for about 50 years. This is convenient for China because it offers employment for its population, that settles in the new region, and after about 50 years they'll have so many Chinese there that an annexation wouldn't be out of the question.
If there is an even momentary power vacuum near Russia, it'll have its "green men" there in no time under all sorts of bullshit pretenses. Just like they did in Ossetia and Crimea. Whether the invasion is baseless or not is simply a question of who gives a damn. Nobody wants to fight Russia, as war is expensive and if you're not going to capture some kind of resource rich region, what good will it do?
Also, Russia failed in Afghanistan because the CIA actively trained the taliban forces, and even though having a powerful military makes it easy to capture new territory, it's still very vulnerable to guerrilla warfare.
Maybe these companies are benefiting, but overall I suspect the expenses of having a force overseas may be just about as big as the profit...
You misunderstood, I meant an invasion by China would not work on the int'l stage. Not Russia, they don't really care and sure- that is how they would do it as you described. The question is, would they be successful or would the Taliban not just galvanize even more support from the Afghan ppl, Pakis, ISIS, Indian extremist groups, etc.
China has investment there so I suppose preserving the status quo is a reasonable strategy for them. I'd just think they would have potential for even more presence if we weren't there, at least from where I sit.
We are in Afghanistan so we can control oil flow through the Middle East if we wanted to.
Further, having a base on both sides of Iran does wonders for power projection there.
China going into Afghanistan would ruffle too many feathers on the international stage. Particularly with India and Russia.
This guy gets it. That hits all the main points as I see it. China can lurk either way but I imagine they would just swoop in and be a much more passive version of us if we left.
Ergo I didn't understand dude's point about them conspiring to keep us there, although I like to hear theories on this stuff. I am certainly no expert on Afghanistan, although I have seen Rambo III about 50 times.
Oh, well China's doctrine is not focused on grabbing territory using its army. It is much more patient. China can focus on economic influence, and it would be very convenient if they can spread their tentacles in the shadows, when someone else (like the US for example) is in the spotlight, being a target for the angry population. They can also strive for a demographic change, very much like the muslim invasion of Europe.
For example: Russia's failing economy relies on China to play ball (at least with the construction of the new oil/gas pipeline from Asia to Europe, which had cost a fortune and failed). As part of the agreements between Russia and China, large parts of Siberia have been leased for exploitation for about 50 years. This is convenient for China because it offers employment for its population, that settles in the new region, and after about 50 years they'll have so many Chinese there that an annexation wouldn't be out of the question.
Playing the long game.