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posted ago by Libertas1776 ago by Libertas1776 +14 / -0

There hasn’t been a national poll in about a week, actually more. So... why? Taking more time to cook books? Not sampling? Taking time?

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donald_d_donaldson 2 points ago +2 / -0

You can get regular updates on all of the most recent contrived & massaged fake polling numbers the mainstream media is pushing here, although I wouldn't see why you'd want to.

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Libertas1776 [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

Those are contrived. As are other polls. Honestly I cringe when people say that Trumps falling with white voters.

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ShrikeDeCil 2 points ago +2 / -0

I have the chops to do experimental-level "poll like" investigations in the hard sciences.

They're tough to do right when you pretty much know all the side issues.

There's lots of 'normal' side issues that are actually disclosed by "Reputable" polling groups - "Percent female", "Percent Hispanic", etc.

But there "enthusiasm" and "refuse to answer phone" and that sort of issue ... you have to make assumptions about who isn't answering. And the people actually paying for the poll are often - the press. And the press admits they see their job as 'telling a story' of what's good for us.

My conspiracy-minded thinking is that the lowest number of people setting out to screw things is "Whoever provides the phone number list". You can be flat-baking in whatever you like by pre-estimating what you'd get and fudging the people on the edges.

A poll of 10x Nancy-Pelosi and 10x Susan Collins is a different poll from a poll of 10x Kurt Schlichter and 10x the mythical "Yellow Dog D". And yet ... they're both nominally "10R and 10D". They do know enough to judge. These are precisely the people buying Google and Amazon's full databases.

So, say I want Biden up by ten, and I bake that in before even taking the poll by choosing my people. Then I run my poll ... and it starts heading south. "Well, add more Dems" ... and ... it still is outrageously bad.

That little clause "We get to release it first? Yeah? We aren't releasing it."

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Libertas1776 [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

I noticed this because the RCP average hasn’t had a poll since July seventh.

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MidwestNorsk 1 point ago +1 / -0

The marxists are behind after taking the Fourth of July off. They're like the atheists who demand Christmas off.