Recently predicted HI would occur at 19%. I specifically predicted Aug 1 or a few days thereafter would see the effects of such.
See thread:
https://thedonald.win/p/GIq5xjKm/prediction--aug-1-2020--curve-be/
Several factors contributed to prediction:
Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
CDC admission that they are only catching at most 1 in 10 cases
Antibody test from all over the world, specifically Stanford
And now another research piece:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
I agree, we're waiting for that 20% number... That's what did it in Sweden where it no longer was a threat to the society as long as they protect the most vulnerable which are mostly the elderly.
Problem is, I live in New Mexico, where the tyrant has locked things down for the last 6 months even though the numbers are not drastically out of hand. To my county has just hit the 350 cases mark, out of 70,000 people in the county. Because she slowed it down so much we have taken over 6 months to even reach this point. so for our county to get to the 20% mark, she really could keep us locked down another year. Which is what she said from the beginning, that she wanted to keep us locked down until there was a vaccine.
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham only follows the science that says what she wants it to say.
The estimate is that real spread is 10 times the number counted as positive, because for 99% of people they just have a mild cold and get over it.
Your community may be closer to herd immunity than you think
The other thing is that if you wash your hands religiously you reduce your chance of getting this by a significant %. Masks dont prevent spread, but soap and water kills the virus stopping it from spreading further.
The answer to “where is your mask” is “when did you last wash your hands?”
Recall Petition. Get it going. Not joking. Find others who agree w/ you. Join an existing recall effort. Get it going.