Recently predicted HI would occur at 19%. I specifically predicted Aug 1 or a few days thereafter would see the effects of such.
See thread:
https://thedonald.win/p/GIq5xjKm/prediction--aug-1-2020--curve-be/
Several factors contributed to prediction:
Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
CDC admission that they are only catching at most 1 in 10 cases
Antibody test from all over the world, specifically Stanford
And now another research piece:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
The estimate is that real spread is 10 times the number counted as positive, because for 99% of people they just have a mild cold and get over it.
Your community may be closer to herd immunity than you think
The other thing is that if you wash your hands religiously you reduce your chance of getting this by a significant %. Masks dont prevent spread, but soap and water kills the virus stopping it from spreading further.
The answer to “where is your mask” is “when did you last wash your hands?”