In order to know how good the test is then we need to know the prevalence if the disease, to know the prevalence we need a good test. Circular logic is no basis for healthcare or government policy.
It's not. That one has its own inaccuracies though. Fortunately, Trump decided which company to go with for the PCR testing (or live virus) and he decided to go with 'Abbott'. There are plenty of broadcasts talking about the accuracy of Abbott's devices but nothing compared to the Antibody testing.
The Antibody testing appears to be where the numbers are most manipulated. After sifting through thousands of news segments, it's clear that there is a correlation between the testing of antibodies and the spike in cases (for a particular State). These tests are often given out for free before a spike occurs.
States are also combining the data between the PCR tests and the Antibody tests. All the while saying that the case numbers are what determines the reopening of local economies.
The CDC is also combining these numbers but 'are actively working to separate them'. The numbers they publish are also not real-time numbers. When they report deaths on a particular day, it doesn't mean they occurred in the last 24 hours. It's all about how fast they input the data. The reporting of deaths could be the accumulation of a week's worth of deaths but only reported that day.
So they are using antibody test positives as new case positives...? retarded. Also, if that is how they are reporting death numbers; it is also super retarded that there is ever a "largest deaths on a single day ever" article published.
I would take any one of these anchors over the current MSM... i learned more in a handful of 60 second clips than i have in months from the cable networks.
Honestly, the local reporting is the best. They genuinely care about reporting the truth to their communities. I have a ton of stuff on false positives, not reporting positives, combining numbers, confusion on where the numbers come from, hundreds of faulty kits.. When I started looking into this I didn't think it would be so blatant.
False positives have a greater impact on the stats overall but we can't dismiss false negatives. If an organization is indeed manipulating the numbers, they would want to control both increases and decreases. Antibody test approvals by the FDA were fast tracked so test can come from anywhere. He who provides the kits controls the numbers.
Here's a clip where they announce one of 11 antibody kits approved under emergency measures (no clinical trial): https://streamable.com/2w0mt5
In Canada they blocked their own product from hitting the market because it failed specifically in the clinical trial (@38sec): https://streamable.com/99pgtk
My wife asked her doctor for an antibody test and was told there's no point because the tests are only about 45% accurate, expensive, and not covered by most insurance.
This was a month ago. It's been known for a while.
even with 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity - in a population of 10,000 with prevalence of 5% - any given positive test is a flip of a coin if it is real or not.....
the only way to improve this is to test ONLY symptomatic patients....
The antibody test measures the presence of antibodies that your body makes to fight the virus though. Those would only come up positive for people who have already mounted a successful immune response (ie. cured people and people who are close to curing themselves.)
Hopefully.
The reality is that we don't know which Ab tests detect antibodies that mean immunity. The so called "neutralizing antibodies" is a separate and rather involved and costly test.(presence of other than neutralizing antibodies means the body has encountered the pathogen but not necessarily that it can defeat it - think of HIV antibodies, or hepatitis C or B)
Too much is still not known about the CCP virus.
I disagree. If this is how some of the election manipulation will take place, we should be on top of it. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that these antibody tests are pure junk.
and they are adding those numbers to the total of positive real tests. How convenient
I have several news clips that support your comment.
EDIT: Here they are.
Georgia: https://streamable.com/khcvsb
Arizona: https://streamable.com/947rz4
Texas: https://streamable.com/3s71ww
Texas: https://streamable.com/zpfrzh
Missouri: https://streamable.com/7ampv6
'Test'
Another word the leftists have changed the definition for (see: woman, fascist, racist, baby-raper).
Just about as accurate, not to mention cheaper to just do coin tosses.
Lol and governors are shutting their states down on this garbage
The whole thing is a fraud from start to finish. It needs to end.
In order to know how good the test is then we need to know the prevalence if the disease, to know the prevalence we need a good test. Circular logic is no basis for healthcare or government policy.
Welcome to the challenges of Bayesian probabilities.
Finally someone gets the right answer! Base Rates Matter
Is this only for the antibody test? This cant be the test the use to determine if you currently have the virus...
It's not. That one has its own inaccuracies though. Fortunately, Trump decided which company to go with for the PCR testing (or live virus) and he decided to go with 'Abbott'. There are plenty of broadcasts talking about the accuracy of Abbott's devices but nothing compared to the Antibody testing.
The Antibody testing appears to be where the numbers are most manipulated. After sifting through thousands of news segments, it's clear that there is a correlation between the testing of antibodies and the spike in cases (for a particular State). These tests are often given out for free before a spike occurs.
States are also combining the data between the PCR tests and the Antibody tests. All the while saying that the case numbers are what determines the reopening of local economies.
The CDC is also combining these numbers but 'are actively working to separate them'. The numbers they publish are also not real-time numbers. When they report deaths on a particular day, it doesn't mean they occurred in the last 24 hours. It's all about how fast they input the data. The reporting of deaths could be the accumulation of a week's worth of deaths but only reported that day.
Any idea where they're using Antibody vs PCR tests?
You'll have to ask or research the test beforehand. They are different tests.
Here is one of the best clips explaining why we don't know what we're testing for: https://streamable.com/z9t0r1
Here's Trump showcasing Abbott's 5 Minute test: https://streamable.com/7msrs8
and for those still reading this far down.. here's Trump snapping back at a reporter about testing at the White House: https://streamable.com/j3704z
So they are using antibody test positives as new case positives...? retarded. Also, if that is how they are reporting death numbers; it is also super retarded that there is ever a "largest deaths on a single day ever" article published.
Here's where they've been caught combining the numbers:
Georgia: https://streamable.com/khcvsb
Arizona: https://streamable.com/947rz4
Texas: https://streamable.com/3s71ww
Texas: https://streamable.com/zpfrzh
Missouri: https://streamable.com/7ampv6
Here's how they are (sometimes?) reporting deaths:
Florida: https://streamable.com/w89ib2
I would take any one of these anchors over the current MSM... i learned more in a handful of 60 second clips than i have in months from the cable networks.
Honestly, the local reporting is the best. They genuinely care about reporting the truth to their communities. I have a ton of stuff on false positives, not reporting positives, combining numbers, confusion on where the numbers come from, hundreds of faulty kits.. When I started looking into this I didn't think it would be so blatant.
False positives have a greater impact on the stats overall but we can't dismiss false negatives. If an organization is indeed manipulating the numbers, they would want to control both increases and decreases. Antibody test approvals by the FDA were fast tracked so test can come from anywhere. He who provides the kits controls the numbers.
Here's a clip where they announce one of 11 antibody kits approved under emergency measures (no clinical trial): https://streamable.com/2w0mt5
In Canada they blocked their own product from hitting the market because it failed specifically in the clinical trial (@38sec): https://streamable.com/99pgtk
And that Canadian device appears to be used in the United States: https://streamable.com/4glinv
Here are a couple of the FREE Antibody test reports:
New York: https://streamable.com/dlul9m
Texas: https://streamable.com/4izdbz
Here's the FULL segment in case anyone else archives this stuff: https://streamable.com/g3unrt
My wife asked her doctor for an antibody test and was told there's no point because the tests are only about 45% accurate, expensive, and not covered by most insurance.
This was a month ago. It's been known for a while.
even with 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity - in a population of 10,000 with prevalence of 5% - any given positive test is a flip of a coin if it is real or not.....
The antibody test measures the presence of antibodies that your body makes to fight the virus though. Those would only come up positive for people who have already mounted a successful immune response (ie. cured people and people who are close to curing themselves.)
Hopefully. The reality is that we don't know which Ab tests detect antibodies that mean immunity. The so called "neutralizing antibodies" is a separate and rather involved and costly test.(presence of other than neutralizing antibodies means the body has encountered the pathogen but not necessarily that it can defeat it - think of HIV antibodies, or hepatitis C or B) Too much is still not known about the CCP virus.
We knew
And the other half is common cold
Also, they can subtract at least another 30% from the total count.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/07/connecticut-pathologists-study-shows-cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-generate-30-false-positive-results/
So, we probably have something like 15k actual CUOMO-19 deaths.
New York - "The city now says an additional 3700 people who died without being tested are presumed to be victims of the pandemic"
https://streamable.com/sq8vor
Key word being 'presumed'. They shouldn't be presuming anything.
You guys are confusing the terms here. They are taking about “positive predictive value”. Look it up. It doesn’t mean half the tests are wrong...
Of course the antibody tests are wrong, that's why you need to get the vaccine.
I disagree. If this is how some of the election manipulation will take place, we should be on top of it. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that these antibody tests are pure junk.
More proof of a government scam. Can't wait for November.