Same, the election was basically decided in 3 states and by 73k votes. Won't take much voter fraud and their numbers get massively pumped up in California (by 3million) so you just add an extra 100k to those 3 states and then pretend you won in a landslide by 3 million.
Yes. And in the article, it points out the two elections that the model got wrong had questionable methods for counting ballots. (Paraphrasing.) One of the elections that was wrong was Bush vs. Gore.
Millions of Americans, including myself, was living a blind life enjoying and not worrying about anything. Thanks to Trump, it opened up my eyes as I researched more and more. He needs to serve his 2nd term to finish what he started.
“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” he concluded. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”
I feel like this guys analysis is what resulted in the BLM / Antifa summer of love we have been having. It may also have something to do with impeachment as well as Covid. Trump's enemies are desperate and will try anything to attempt to move the needle. They know they are losing bigly.
It's easy. Take the parameters of the model (which appear to be Primary results) and plug in the known historical values. In 25 of 27 cases, the model gave the actual experienced result.
It's more than that. He uses economic indicators, no war, bonus to incumbent, etc. Etc. He said before coronavirus that it might be too late, even if the economy had some unforeseen catastrophe, people already veiw trump as a good economic leader. Let's hope he was and is right. I am far more worried about fraud.
Yeah, but this time Professor L's sticking to normal traditional translations for each of his parameter categories.
That's pretending that everything going on around us this year is normal and traditional. That's either Lichtman being dishonest or vacuous. I don't know anybody LEFT OR RIGHT who considers this year to be normal or traditional.
So for Lichtman to apply his previous model "hunky dory" is like the Titanic captain deciding to engage Autopilot. or like 2016 pollsters refusing to adjust their methods despite knowing their criteria flopped last time.
I do see plenty of social media posts by TDS leftists who claim to be enthusiastic about Biden rescuing and redeeming the nation, as a cure for the Trump disease. Despite Biden never having been such a person during his past 4 decades in D.C.
There's nothing I can do to pierce the veil of such people, in the same way as TDS family relatives who've gone off the deep end.
Most Americans are carefully guarding their true beliefs to avoid negative reactions from the extreme left. Most media pundits and so-called journalists, are even more insulated in a micro-bubble of their peers this year than they were in 2016.
Trump is blending a variety of policies that mix both conservative and liberal populism. RINOs are meekly ducking their heads like ostriches. NeverTrumpers are allying w/ Pelosi/Schumer et al to promote Biden as a method of rescuing old-school conservatism. DJT is actually delivering on America First priorities that traditional politicians give lip service to during campaigns but never follow.
Normal people see that.
Obama was only "scandal free" because of media lies and gaslight distortion.
Trump's "scandals" have been biased lies and distortion.
I don't know why Lichtman's pretending like his traditional model doesn't need to be elastically modified to recognize 2020 events. To me the good news is that Trump recognizes the battlefield, like James Kirk evaluating the Kobayashi Maru. The next few months will contain dramatic twists and surprises.
Another advantage to Biden, in his analysis, is that Democrats made gains in the 2018 midterms when they won back the House. And Lichtman does not count Mr. Trump as a "charismatic incumbent," arguing that he appeals to a narrow voting base — which gives another point to Biden.
People who don't want to be fired for milquetoast opinions and don't want peaceful rioters in their neighborhood is a "narrow base" looool
I think the definition of landslide is greater than 60% of the popular vote, like Reagan in '84. That isn't going to happen, but Trump will perform better than 2016. At least 320 electoral votes.
they want to stretch out election day for months to try and make Pelosi President for the meantime and she will pass her bullshit and ruin the economy. CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN! TRUMP 2020
Vote in person on election day. Most people here voted early during the 2018 gov election and he magically got just enough votes to win in a red state.
Rigged. Don't show our hand. I'll never early vote again.
The reason they picked Biden is they didn't want what happened when Trump got elected. All the old corners of hissy Republicans establishment got thrown out. If Bernie had been the nominee this would have happened to the Democrats
Vote in person. Do not get complacent. Pretend this election we have an even greater chance of losing than we did in 2016 (this might as well be true with all the voter fraud).
But know, that in 2016 this prediction gave Trump an 87% chance of winning. This time around, it is 91%. Remember, that these percentages are ONLY possible if every single one of us and all our friends and neighbors show up to vote alongside.
I agree, but we have to not be complacent. I have never seen so many people switching parties and narrative to vote for Trump. I just got an earful again from my formerly Trump hating hispanic friend about Trump being right on Covid. His uncle was diagnosed as a covid death and it was a heart attack. This was California and the family is pissed. The silent vote is real, but we need to be counted. My county is all vote by mail, but they have in person drop off points. I always drop of the family ballots personally, I do not trust the postal service
German Scientists get bonus credibility score, it's just a matter of fact. There's a good German doctor analysing Covid as well, putting the hysteria to rest.
"In 2020, his model once again projects a Trump victory, giving the incumbent President a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide — a controversial call that runs contrary to current polls."
Controversial?? How is it controversial to go against the same people that were hysterically wrong in 2016? And using the same polls no less?
Same, the election was basically decided in 3 states and by 73k votes. Won't take much voter fraud and their numbers get massively pumped up in California (by 3million) so you just add an extra 100k to those 3 states and then pretend you won in a landslide by 3 million.
Very Sage advice for those who intend to do The Honorable thing. However the left has never played by rules, even ones they impose.
Yes. And in the article, it points out the two elections that the model got wrong had questionable methods for counting ballots. (Paraphrasing.) One of the elections that was wrong was Bush vs. Gore.
What if a someone steals my mail in ballot, Fills it out for Trump, and I show up to vote for Trump on 11/3?? 🤔
If they let you vote in person. What if they do all mail in ballots?
It would pretty much nullify the election, no?
Millions of Americans, including myself, was living a blind life enjoying and not worrying about anything. Thanks to Trump, it opened up my eyes as I researched more and more. He needs to serve his 2nd term to finish what he started.
I like your optimism, but the radical left will never be destroyed permanently. Each generation has to defeat them anew.
And two Tucker terms for safe measure.
"The cost of freedom is eternal vigilance." Thomas Jefferson
He was right in 2016 so I hope he is right again!
“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” he concluded. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”
F-ing academia.
Please Heavenly Father let this be accurate. And when it is may your wrap be channeled through our re-elected president.
I'll Be There in Person with my Stupid Fuckin Mask.. (In California)
We thank you for your sacrifice pede
I feel like this guys analysis is what resulted in the BLM / Antifa summer of love we have been having. It may also have something to do with impeachment as well as Covid. Trump's enemies are desperate and will try anything to attempt to move the needle. They know they are losing bigly.
I'm guessing not Presidential Elections or he would be pretty freaking old.
It's easy. Take the parameters of the model (which appear to be Primary results) and plug in the known historical values. In 25 of 27 cases, the model gave the actual experienced result.
It's more than that. He uses economic indicators, no war, bonus to incumbent, etc. Etc. He said before coronavirus that it might be too late, even if the economy had some unforeseen catastrophe, people already veiw trump as a good economic leader. Let's hope he was and is right. I am far more worried about fraud.
Agreed on the parameters. I think they are all pretty much available (or estimable with some degree of confidence) historically.
In a fair election with no fraud.
Interesting analysis. Sadly my first thought was "How did Harrison Ford and Dennis Quaid make a kid?"
I see your Stony Brook professor, and raise you an American University professor who says DRUMF WILL LOOOOOOOOSE lol
https://www.yahoo.com/news/2020-prediction-professor-called-every-181001596.html
Most professors have TDS
he did call '16 correctly
Yeah, but this time Professor L's sticking to normal traditional translations for each of his parameter categories.
That's pretending that everything going on around us this year is normal and traditional. That's either Lichtman being dishonest or vacuous. I don't know anybody LEFT OR RIGHT who considers this year to be normal or traditional.
So for Lichtman to apply his previous model "hunky dory" is like the Titanic captain deciding to engage Autopilot. or like 2016 pollsters refusing to adjust their methods despite knowing their criteria flopped last time.
I do see plenty of social media posts by TDS leftists who claim to be enthusiastic about Biden rescuing and redeeming the nation, as a cure for the Trump disease. Despite Biden never having been such a person during his past 4 decades in D.C.
There's nothing I can do to pierce the veil of such people, in the same way as TDS family relatives who've gone off the deep end.
Most Americans are carefully guarding their true beliefs to avoid negative reactions from the extreme left. Most media pundits and so-called journalists, are even more insulated in a micro-bubble of their peers this year than they were in 2016.
Trump is blending a variety of policies that mix both conservative and liberal populism. RINOs are meekly ducking their heads like ostriches. NeverTrumpers are allying w/ Pelosi/Schumer et al to promote Biden as a method of rescuing old-school conservatism. DJT is actually delivering on America First priorities that traditional politicians give lip service to during campaigns but never follow.
Normal people see that.
Obama was only "scandal free" because of media lies and gaslight distortion.
Trump's "scandals" have been biased lies and distortion.
I don't know why Lichtman's pretending like his traditional model doesn't need to be elastically modified to recognize 2020 events. To me the good news is that Trump recognizes the battlefield, like James Kirk evaluating the Kobayashi Maru. The next few months will contain dramatic twists and surprises.
Yeah, him having TDS was my thought too when I watched his video. Especially when he said that Biden has great charisma.
People who don't want to be fired for milquetoast opinions and don't want peaceful rioters in their neighborhood is a "narrow base" looool
My friend tried sighting this as why trump would lose
Vote vote vote. If you're forced to mail in, see if they have ballot boxes to drop them off into instead. Loves.
I think the definition of landslide is greater than 60% of the popular vote, like Reagan in '84. That isn't going to happen, but Trump will perform better than 2016. At least 320 electoral votes.
they want to stretch out election day for months to try and make Pelosi President for the meantime and she will pass her bullshit and ruin the economy. CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN! TRUMP 2020
Reppin Stony Brook!!
This is my hope, such a large electoral win that many mail in states just won't matter and their delay tactic will fail.
Vote in person on election day. Most people here voted early during the 2018 gov election and he magically got just enough votes to win in a red state.
Rigged. Don't show our hand. I'll never early vote again.
This guy's probably aces at the horse tracks!
STILL VOTE!
Who cares. Vote like you’re the deciding factor. Forget the analysis, these people have no idea what the fuck
But did he get 2016 right?
He gave Trump an 87% chance in 16.
Hmm.... 27 x4? Very old fella. 108years old if he predicted as a newborn.
IT’S WRONG IGNORE HIM TRUMP IS NOT GUARANTEED A LANDSLIDE GO VOTE
The reason they picked Biden is they didn't want what happened when Trump got elected. All the old corners of hissy Republicans establishment got thrown out. If Bernie had been the nominee this would have happened to the Democrats
Yay! Go Trump. All that.
Shit like this means NOTHING. Its rains every day until it doesn't. This isn't helpful or productive. Vote, spread the word. Register.
Well that wasn't a hard one for him to predict.
Dude has been guessing over 100 years?
Like predicting that water will freeze at 32 degrees. We all know that.
Vote in person. Do not get complacent. Pretend this election we have an even greater chance of losing than we did in 2016 (this might as well be true with all the voter fraud).
But know, that in 2016 this prediction gave Trump an 87% chance of winning. This time around, it is 91%. Remember, that these percentages are ONLY possible if every single one of us and all our friends and neighbors show up to vote alongside.
I agree, but we have to not be complacent. I have never seen so many people switching parties and narrative to vote for Trump. I just got an earful again from my formerly Trump hating hispanic friend about Trump being right on Covid. His uncle was diagnosed as a covid death and it was a heart attack. This was California and the family is pissed. The silent vote is real, but we need to be counted. My county is all vote by mail, but they have in person drop off points. I always drop of the family ballots personally, I do not trust the postal service
Doctor Helmut Ja! This dude is real science.
German Scientists get bonus credibility score, it's just a matter of fact. There's a good German doctor analysing Covid as well, putting the hysteria to rest.
Has he taken into consideration the chances of fraud with mail in voting?
What should be a landslide might be a very close win or a full blown loss
"In 2020, his model once again projects a Trump victory, giving the incumbent President a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide — a controversial call that runs contrary to current polls."
Controversial?? How is it controversial to go against the same people that were hysterically wrong in 2016? And using the same polls no less?
These people are delusional (at best).
what's the best betting site for this? i only bet 1 dollar in 2016 on Trumpo.
How old is this man to have lived through 27 elections!