Daily case numbers are a useless stat. Don't be deceived. Furthermore, it does not matter if there is ever a vaccine.
The answer to Covid/WuFlu is in the profile. Yes, I know profiling is a politically incorrect word. But profiling is the top tool in the arsenal of both preventive law enforcement and preventive medicine.
Covid was never a catastrophe of epic and uncontrollable proportions. It may have initially seemed that way due to two major mistakes by the political and medical communities.
On the political side, Govs shove patients in nursing homes and long term care facilities creating killing fields.
On the med side (and this is from a discussion w/ a Cardiologist) originally physicians were treating WuFlu as ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and were thus utilizing ventilators incorrectly. During the first 60 days of WuFlu's rise 90% or more of patients on vents were dying.
Even though DEM run states have attempted to artificially inflate numbers to damage your Pres, the data still clearly presents a very distinct PROFILE of those who struggle w/ this virus. Most of whom are infected never experience a symptom.
The profile is well defined. If you have the following conditions in this order of priority you are high risk: Hypertension, Diabetes, Cardiac Disease, Chronic Kidney Disease, or Obesity. That is top 6 comorbidities. Also, if you are over the age of 70 you are higher risk unless you are very healthy.
Kids, young adults, healthy seniors even, are not at risk statistically. In fact, many things they do in their daily lives on a normal basis are riskier.
we know about 50% of the population has cross immunity that helps them fight off the virus so they never get sick
This puts the bar for herd immunity at about 16-20% — with 10 undetected cases for every 1 detected, you only need 1.6-2% of the population to test positive for this before it hits a wall and collapses. This has proven out across multiple states and countries.
Even further, we have multiple successful early treatment protocols and people can get the help they need and move on
I said very early on that I was far more concerned about the geopolitical second and third order effects. I am not worried about a mild cold virus. I am worried about tyrannical governments
Exactly.
But in your first statement I put that figure at 81%. Can explain if requested.
I think you are right on the herd immunity and I believe we are approaching it. I have predictions on this board that Aug 1 is when this begins disappearing. I think we are about to see decreasing case numbers at an increasing rate. As for 1 in 10, I used a ratio of 1 in 15. Have written extensively about it.
Some antibody studies that were conducted prior to "massive test harvesting" placed to confirmed/actual case ratio at as high as 1 to 85. That study was in Santa Clara County, CA.
As for third order effects, those are very real. Cancelling College Football is a high profile one. Hopefully the SEC and ACC stick to their guns and actually play.
If you have any links off hand on the cross immunity I'd love to read them. That's not something I've heard of and I'd like to read more about it so I'm better equipped to argue with the covid fear-mongers. Edit: did a google search like a non-lazy asshole. Dropping some links for anyone who may be interested: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871 https://www.sciencealert.com/surprise-finding-suggests-some-people-are-already-primed-to-fight-the-coronavirus https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306987720317874