Just some perspective from someone working in deep tech (semiconductor industry):
China is actually very firmly entrenched and, while very disruptive, the sanctions are too little, too late. China has already captured enough high-tech formerly Western Tech entities and done the tech transfers. China will soon have the capability to domestically produce all what it still relies others to make.
China is a much bigger threat than most appreciate. China of today is not the China of the 80’s or 90’s. China has already or nearly caught up with the West in key strategic areas and starting to pull away in others. Their rise is shocking and due to many reason, including traitorous politicians and a system focused solely on short-term financial gains.
Never underestimate your enemy, don’t underestimate China, don’t fail to appreciate the type of mind that produced Art of War.
Once the stealing stops and people stop buying so much from China it’s all going to come to head. China is already way over extended before this year. They had to bail out most of their economy this year with borrowed money.
I agree and disagree. I mean, once they have the knowhow there is no putting that genie back. Also, the sanctions are just accelerating China’s drive to be more self-reliant. They have been anticipating exactly this, hence their partnerships within Africa and Pakistan and securing strategic resources and ports.
Chinese are a capable people even with their shortcomings. Don’t underestimate a high-IQ, obedient, patient and industrious (and large) population.
Sure, economic collapse and if we are lucky collapse in the regime but that is a pipe dream imo. There is no democratic form of government coming to China because there is no history of such. People (us Americans) need to get a little more sophisticated and not assume everyone is quintessentially an American under the surface with the same outlooks as us. These people as a whole are very different and we have to respect that.
Edit: I agree, sanctions are a must and I think Chinese nationals and firms must be blocked totally from the West.
Know-how is still crucial. It is not always enough to have e.g. architecture, materials and layouts as in this example. Recipes are very much an integral part of the semiconductor business and those things are certainly not documented externally. A good example is when China tried to buy Aixtron, the US pressured Germany to block this sale. It is clear the Chinese were not simply interested in acquiring their customers.
There are a lot of trade secrets and 'formulas' for manufacturing that are never patented (would be impossible to enforce anyway). As an example, I have a friend who worked in Huawei in the UK. The 'old-guard' engineers would really drag their feet or simply not comply to document details on designs (in terms of epitaxial profiles etc.) because this was the bread-and-butter of the technology.
But yeah, I agree, we need to totally lock China out but I fear it is too late. I mean, I have traveled to China over the past 15 years and the rate of transformation (off of essentially transferred Western wealth) is astonishing. They are already at a high level in many technology domains.
I agree, but unlike with the Soviet Union 'we' in the West have willingly sold strategic companies and technology to the Chinese. It was unfathomable for a European or American research center or high tech firm to be bought by the Soviets but that is exactly what has happened with China. Likewise, the West never outsourced manufacturing to the Soviet Union or allowed Soviet companies really any foothold but we have with the Chinese.
This is why I think the Soviet Union analogy is limited and why I believe we have now limited options. And who can we blame? Can start with Kissinger and Nixon who opened up relations with China and every administration after that.
archive that shit plz
Just some perspective from someone working in deep tech (semiconductor industry): China is actually very firmly entrenched and, while very disruptive, the sanctions are too little, too late. China has already captured enough high-tech formerly Western Tech entities and done the tech transfers. China will soon have the capability to domestically produce all what it still relies others to make.
China is a much bigger threat than most appreciate. China of today is not the China of the 80’s or 90’s. China has already or nearly caught up with the West in key strategic areas and starting to pull away in others. Their rise is shocking and due to many reason, including traitorous politicians and a system focused solely on short-term financial gains.
Never underestimate your enemy, don’t underestimate China, don’t fail to appreciate the type of mind that produced Art of War.
It’s never too little too late in geopolitics.
Once the stealing stops and people stop buying so much from China it’s all going to come to head. China is already way over extended before this year. They had to bail out most of their economy this year with borrowed money.
Unlike the US China cannot keep Borrowing.
All true...but if we cut off their revenue (economy) from the US the will crumble within a year.
They cannot survive without sucking wealth from the US.
I agree and disagree. I mean, once they have the knowhow there is no putting that genie back. Also, the sanctions are just accelerating China’s drive to be more self-reliant. They have been anticipating exactly this, hence their partnerships within Africa and Pakistan and securing strategic resources and ports.
Chinese are a capable people even with their shortcomings. Don’t underestimate a high-IQ, obedient, patient and industrious (and large) population.
Sure, economic collapse and if we are lucky collapse in the regime but that is a pipe dream imo. There is no democratic form of government coming to China because there is no history of such. People (us Americans) need to get a little more sophisticated and not assume everyone is quintessentially an American under the surface with the same outlooks as us. These people as a whole are very different and we have to respect that.
Edit: I agree, sanctions are a must and I think Chinese nationals and firms must be blocked totally from the West.
Know-how is still crucial. It is not always enough to have e.g. architecture, materials and layouts as in this example. Recipes are very much an integral part of the semiconductor business and those things are certainly not documented externally. A good example is when China tried to buy Aixtron, the US pressured Germany to block this sale. It is clear the Chinese were not simply interested in acquiring their customers.
There are a lot of trade secrets and 'formulas' for manufacturing that are never patented (would be impossible to enforce anyway). As an example, I have a friend who worked in Huawei in the UK. The 'old-guard' engineers would really drag their feet or simply not comply to document details on designs (in terms of epitaxial profiles etc.) because this was the bread-and-butter of the technology.
But yeah, I agree, we need to totally lock China out but I fear it is too late. I mean, I have traveled to China over the past 15 years and the rate of transformation (off of essentially transferred Western wealth) is astonishing. They are already at a high level in many technology domains.
I agree, but unlike with the Soviet Union 'we' in the West have willingly sold strategic companies and technology to the Chinese. It was unfathomable for a European or American research center or high tech firm to be bought by the Soviets but that is exactly what has happened with China. Likewise, the West never outsourced manufacturing to the Soviet Union or allowed Soviet companies really any foothold but we have with the Chinese.
This is why I think the Soviet Union analogy is limited and why I believe we have now limited options. And who can we blame? Can start with Kissinger and Nixon who opened up relations with China and every administration after that.
I won’t be clicking on any Washington Compost story.