4154 () posted 241 days ago by Lyndhurst 241 days ago by Lyndhurst +4154 / -0 357 comments share 357 comments share save hide report block hide child comments Comments (357) sorted by: top new old worst You're viewing a single comment thread. View all comments, or full comment thread. ▲ 19 ▼ – MagaChamp253 19 points 241 days ago +19 / -0 even if that's 50% wrong - a TEN POINT swing is CRUSHING. a 20+ swing? If that's accurate? Devastating. permalink save report block reply ▲ 7 ▼ – congruent 7 points 241 days ago +7 / -0 10% of the electorate in 2016 was black. Thus, if 10% of those switch their vote, it's a 2% swing over all (+1% Trump along with -1% Dem). If 20% of those switch their vote, it's a 4% swing over all (+2% Trump along with -2% Dem). Datum from: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/ permalink save report block reply ▲ 5 ▼ – Bewbskizzle 5 points 241 days ago +5 / -0 That's the difference in 304 and 400+, right there. permalink parent save report block reply
even if that's 50% wrong - a TEN POINT swing is CRUSHING. a 20+ swing? If that's accurate? Devastating.
10% of the electorate in 2016 was black. Thus, if 10% of those switch their vote, it's a 2% swing over all (+1% Trump along with -1% Dem).
If 20% of those switch their vote, it's a 4% swing over all (+2% Trump along with -2% Dem).
Datum from: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
That's the difference in 304 and 400+, right there.