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Latest polls shows Biden 6% ahead..ah yes they polled 7% more Dems than Reps (media.patriots.win)
posted ago by Loc12 ago by Loc12 +2736 / -0
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– Sabeoth42 1 point ago +1 / -0

Election night turnout in 2016 was 35% Democrat, 33% Republican and 32% Independent.

Assuming the turnout is identical in November then they are under sampling Independents by 8 points and oversampling Democrats by 5 points. This is the equivalent of a 3-4 point increase for Trump.

Therefore the actual poll result is +2-3 Biden which is identical to 2016 with Hilary. The electoral college will do the rest.

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