Same. But this is encouraging. Honestly, no matter what the polls say, I truly believe our people will show up to vote in historical numbers. Enthusiasm is higher than ever!
I'm an anglo white male in Quebec, Canadastan. Sick, yet again. I had a fever for a few days, and sinus issues. Today, I feel like it's moving into my lungs. After 9 years of experience with the medical system here, I - firmly - believe that my best chances for survival are in not being tested.
drink tons of water and orange juice, keep clearing it out as you can, take hot showers, massage your sinus via your cheeks to help loosen and get rid of it, eat steak and veggies and watch funny movies.
I think I caught the wuflu in late December, knocked me on my ass for a good week and a half and felt distinctly different from the flu, came on really fast and during the tail end symptoms would mostly go away and then come back just as hard.
I was almost compulsively taking hot showers during it, was one of the only things that made me feel better.
I went to a cybersecurity conference in Detroit at the beginning of February and when I got back that weekend I woke up and was just decimated. Couldn't breath, heavy dry cough, vomiting, body ache like Andre the Giant just delivered a top rope frog splash. Was out of action for about 5 days. I have never been sick like that before. I actually rarely get sick. Maybe a cold in the winter or spring, but that - that was something else.
Yup, me too, same time-frame...not quite knocked out but challenging for sure. There were lots of Asian tourists around where I was (NorCal resort town). I never take antibiotics and never get sick. The only vaccine I’ve had was Hydroxychloroquin (so??) required for a Visa to India, interesting...
Just a personal tip to a felllow pede. I had severe sinus problems for years due to a deviated septum. Whenever I would get a cold, it would lead to a sinus headache which would then lead to an infection. It would take me weeks to get rid of it, and usually require antibiotics.
I tried a lot fo sinus medicine, some helped, but nothing really worked that well. Then I found some stuff called Alleve D it is a 12 hour caplet, I don't know why, but the stuff works. I take it at the first sign of a Sinus headache, and drink a lot of fluid, and it usually clears up within an hour.
I know this isn't web MD, and I don't mean to sound like a commercial,(there are generics with the combination of Naproxin and Pseudophedrine that work just as well). But I went from being out of commission and in pain 20-30 days a year taking antibiotics for sinus infections at least 5 times a year, to not missing a day of work or being on antibiotics for the last 5 years.
I told a few people in my neighborhood who also had sinus problems about this, and my only regret is that the local drug store is always out of stock now. Just trying to help a fellow pede
This is funny, because commercials actually spend time and money trying to make themselves sound like real people giving good advice. Then real people don't know how to sound real anymore, when they're actually trying to give good advice. I'll look for it, thanks :D.
I have the same problems with colds: they turn into sinus infections or bronchitis.
I now take Mucinex D at the first sign of a cold. It's available in generic over-the-counter: look for guafacin (expectorant to prevent bronchitis) and pseudoephidrine (a decongestant to open up your sinuses).
Pharmacists keep it behind the counter, so you have to ask for it.
its hilarious when leftists say this same thing. Im like wtf? What do you fuckers have to be afraid of? Are you terrified that you wont be able to force communism on the population for another four years? Like why do they feel so threatened lol?
Leftists are the dumbest fucking sheep Ive ever observed.
Guys. Please do not forget that we need to vote for real republicans in the house and the senate. When getting friends or family to vote for Trump make sure they vote accordingly for congress. If Trump wins but we lose the house and the senate we are screwed anyways.
That's exactly it. Most people don't pay too much attention to politics. So they see "Lindsey Graham is based now" being spread everywhere, and that becomes their new permanent perception of him.
traitors don't just 'grow a pair'. i knew exactly what he was doing with that kavanaugh act and i knew it would sucker many. he says just what he needs to say and just when he needs to say it. he's a complete sham.
Don't be discouraged. It's simply too difficult to commit enough fraud across enough states to overcome a landslide of support for Trump.
Sure there will be fraud, and we may not win as many congressional seats or senate seats as we should have (see 2018). But Trump has MORE support today than in 2016. There are MORE states in play for him now. Fraud will need to be distributed across MORE states and need to be in such a high volume that would be impractical to do without risking a serious discovery of high volume fraud (which will ensure we finally reform the elections and dramatically reduce the opportunity for fraud via Voter ID and other reforms).
This. I one hundred perfect DONT give a fuck. Only the most brainwashed Hispanics would vote for a party that is actively making the country into the shitholes we collectively left. I think the key is one to make sure that people know the protestors are rioters and that those rioters are democrats
Enthusiasm absolutely is higher. Compare the DNC to GOP. One preached misery, how bad the country is, and how sorry they feel for everyone. The other gave a positive outlook, highlighted our accomplishments, and gave people a sense of hope.
How long until they try something like this Fort Worth? I’m sure BLM will be able to throw one or two bricks before they are all mowed down by Americans.
Hahaha you have Don Lemon pleading with them to stop. Always remember, politics is about contrast. None of this crap is happening in red towns and cities in that magnitude.
Just want to make it abundantly clear -- if 15% of Blacks vote Republican it becomes literally impossible for a Democrat to win. Too many light-blue states flip red.
It only works on those who are emotionally invested in supporting Democrats, like a good friend of mine. His entire Church supports Trump, his parents support Trump, and at least one of his best friends (Me) support Trump. And he thinks we're ALL brainwashed and a "cult of personality".
I think he's a lost cause for flipping, but it makes me feel good that pretty much his entire orbit (note: these are in bright blue bay area, california) are trump supporters, and he's trying to organize phone banks for Biden LOL
She's "culturally black." That is how she's promoted herself and how she has always been known in California legal circles going waaaay back. She's Indian or "bi-racial " depending on the circumstances and when it's advantageous. And you notice she wasn't whoring herself to the Bobby Jindals of the world. She worked the black angle for Willie's favors.
I don't fucking get it. I love the man and I would sacrifice my life for him and this country in a split second, because thats exactly what he is doing for us. With that said, I am going to say it-he is the man in charge, do something about it! Tweeting about potential mail in voter fraud will do nothing.
Action matters and he knows it, so whats the damn hold up? He will lose this election and we will lose this country if they have their way with mail in voting.
I understand it is up to the states, but at least an Executive Order with some sort of substance to combat the cheating that will occur
Hillary would not have exposed herself in such a nasty light if Jeb! won. We would be living in complete communism within the next 4 years under her leadership. And people would like it.
It's a federal election - why can't he cite the fraud that was proven last time around as grounds for stationing federal election monitors in known problem areas, like Philly, Detroit, etc.? Announce that, and dissuade the wannabe fraudsters from pulling their shit? It would be terrible if the initial bogus announced result was a loss, and it was left to fighting about it afterwards to overturn that.
Because constitutionally, the presidential election is handled by then states. It's up to each individual state how they want to do things. In this, his hands are tied. He can make people aware of the corruption and try to get them to demand their states do things rationally, but at the end of the day he can't make the states do anything.
I hear you. It's unfortunate in this specific instance, but I think in general not letting the federal government control presidential elections is probably a good thing.
DOJ then - conspiracy to commit federal election fraud seems like it should be something they could devote resources into investigating - Mueller and his gang of old law school buddies spared no expense for the cause of protecting the integrity of elections, so there shouldn't be any fuss about it now. But it needs to be preemptive, not reactive after a Biden 'win' is proclaimed.
I think it is a smart plan. If he jumps the gun like the democrats always do he will look like he is actively trying to mess with the vote. I think their internal numbers are telling them it is a landslide so he is just resting on his laurels. However if their numbers say landslide and it is way off with Biden "winning" due to voter fraud then he can come out guns a blazing. I think they have several contingency plans and Trump is always several steps ahead.
The RNC has already filed a lawsuit in New Jersey, claiming they are ill equipped to handle mass mail in voting, and also have a long history of voter fraud in that state.
I think they have also filed suit in NV.
They filed suit in FL and won.
The reality is that states handle elections, so there isn't much Trump can do. Granted, those elections are supposed to be fair and free from fraud. Courts have said as much.
But in the end, Trump can't do much. It's going to be a state by state thing, with the RNC leading the charge (they have the money and lawyers to do it).
Trump is going to have local and federal forces watch vote counting. He already talked about it.
Furthermore they have already been cracking down. No one else notice that we have now Caught more election counting fraud in the last year then the last 10 years.
Do we think that is coincidence?
The Us government has been ramping it up since Trump was elected.
If they’re catching them in primaries now, what is going to happen in an election that really matters.
The left doesn’t know Trump has already setup the counter narrative. That many mail in votes will have to be checked and many will be thrown out.
If Trump wins and we also win the house and the senate Trump will be able to appoint new supreme court justices sometime in the next two years when some of them finally die.
I remember reading in the past that if a Republican gained between 13 to 15% of the black vote then it is almost impossible for a Democrat to win the White House.
Ha Ha Drumpfelstilstskin! Joe Biden has already guaranteed he will get 100% of the black vote by declaring that anyone who doesn't vote for him is not black! Check - Mate! This logic also fits in with his plan to reduce the proportion of crimes committed by blacks, which is to defund the police, so there's no cops to arrest blacks when they commit crimes!
Its not 36% of the 52% are blacks. He has a 52% overall approval rating, and a 36% approval rating with blacks. Since black people make up about 13% of the country it means about 4% of the 52% total is from black people.
As for why more white people don't support him - well filthy communists is why. The people boosting the riots in Portland and across the country are almost all white. They hate themselves more than anyone else.
Obviously, but my point is that if 36% of blacks are supporting him, the white rate (and probably other ethnic groups) must be much, much higher. Either this is yet another shitty poll, or perhaps it's just intimidation that people aren't talking to pollsters. Don't think the white rioters are representative of half the population. They're paid agitators, nothing more.
Either way, it goes to show that polls aren't reliable, but that rate among black people is stunning. If that's what they admit to, that real rate must be amazing.
In 2016 he got 8% of the Black vote. His approval rating around this same time in 2016 was 20%. Approval rating does not equal votes. Still, that's a 16 point increase in approval from 4 years ago. There is no to way to calculate what these numbers mean for 2020 but if you directly base it off the 2016 numbers it means an increase of over 4 million votes.
No matter what though, we all NEED to vote. No matter what. Even if you're in a safely red state. We absolutely all need to vote. The more support our president has the harder it becomes for the democrats to steal the election. And lets not forget that every major source of news out there has spent the last 4 years vilifying the president. A large portion of the public has been brainwashed into believing Trump is evil incarnate. We need to fight hard for this election no matter what any poll says.
^ the difference between moving from 1100 to 1000 is waaaaaay harder than moving from 20000 to 10000. Top 1000 you’re starting to play with some of the bigger boys. Not the big boys, but bigger.
It’s the vpn’s. That’s why 4~% of our traffic comes from the netherlands, they have good cyber privacy laws. The dutch aren’t actually super based, we’re just showing up there a lot.
I saw an election a few days ago that was decided by 14 votes. If 15 people had got off their ass and voted there would have been one less dem in an office.
Polls are based on likely voters (like Rasmussen, which is why it's more accurate), but most of the MSM polls aren't, which is why Trump seems lower than he actually is.
The problem with Rasmussen is they use primarily landlines, they just started using the internet and for very few things. While I one hundred percent agree they get more likely voters it becomes completely inaccurate if a small demographic actually does vote (like in 08/12). It’s also important to note we’ve had more boomers die in the last 4 years then ever before and 2020 is the first time millennials have become the most populous generation alive and of eligible voters.
Conclusion - don’t get complacent, this election is going to be closer then anyone actually thinks.
Enthusiasm wins elections. Period. Biden's highest profile supporters encourage each other to "settle" for Joe. Trump's supporters would crawl across broken glass to make sure he wins (again).
As long we all go vote, and as long as the fix isn't in (and it might be), Trump is going to win. He has the enthusiasm.
I'm working on a PAC -- I call it: Operation Full-Swing
This is where Pedes who live in hopelessly blue states move to swing states to turn them red. Remember, it doesn't matter if the Dems win California by 1% of 100%, the electoral votes are all or nothing.
I suppose this could also apply to hosers like you, fren.
(I used to live in Ottawa, btw. How're things up north?)
Ottawa is growing like you wouldn't believe and the housing market is through the roof. We'll be at Toronto/New York prices soon (until BLM/Antifa riots start here - they already tried to start one but the PM and Mayor showed up in solidarity and every one of the activists went home confused)..
I tried to get elected in the Oct 2019 election but will have to wait until Trudeau finally gets taken down by the Conservative cuckparty. either a snap election when Trudeau thinks he has enough support, or a no-confidence vote in parliament forcing an election.. either way, Canada is fucked politically - especially since the PPC did so dismally.
I fully expect Alberta to separate followed quickly by Quebec. The Maritimes will side w/ Quebec and join her, while Sask and Manitoba will side w/ Alberta. Ontario and BC (the two most cucked provinces) will be left with nothing but cucks. Every patriot in the armed forces will default to Alberta or Quebec depending on their preferred language.
I'll be heading to Quebec, because [Ottawa] and because the french women are sexy. I'll ride it out till America annexes us.
Don't discount fear, either. Trump was such a question mark last time, I think a lot of what drove people to vote for him was a general loathing, hatred, and fear of a Hillary presidency.
This time, he's got the incumbent effect working for him, and BLM driving conservatives and fence sitters to show up. And his record. He's generating energy, being positive, confident, and showing leadership. He's grown into the job, and people are seeing it.
If the media were actually honest, it would note a clear “Trump Effect.”
Trump isn’t Democrat or Republican. He’s Trump. Voters are very aware of this - which is why his base isn’t traditionally Republican.
He has brought in the working man - which Republicans never really had. He is making blue collar workers, regardless of race, realize that Democrats abandoned them.
My biggest shock about Trump is that tried and true union guys are supporting him. That is a total shift in voting dynamics.
But none of this is ever noted, because “Orange Man Bad.”
This is especially true - the lack of interest from the media. I ran into this a lot when I was on that old gay site Deddit. The lefties would always assume we were like George Bush Republicans. They are absolutely clueless. They'd try to shock me by saying Fox News is biased. Yeah, no shit. I'd always tell em I dislike most Republicans more than Democrats. They are still clueless to this day.
Somebody told me that Tim Poole talked about a study done where they tried to see which side could explain the other side's political opinions. Republicans performed way better, unsurprisingly.
Approval is not the same as “voting for” but I expect Trump will get historic support from the black community as compared to recent Republican candidates. The question is whether the extra support he gets from minorities will offset any losses among white women. White ladies for whatever reason are most open to voting for Biden to make rioters feel better. You can see it in the BLM protests where young white women are really the dominant force.
It's not shocking, if true, Biden's team has been grossly incompetent when it comes to rallying their black voter base, and his statements like "monolithic culture" and "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" did not go down well among blacks.
They've been even more incompetent for other minorities, they heel turned into pandering to the black vote so hard during their convention (possibly from really bad internal polling - which could bolster what Zogby is claiming to see), they practically ignored everyone else.
But the whole thing is "I'm voting for anyone who isn't Orange Man Bad", not "I believe in Joe Biden" - and i suspect the black community don't like being told how to define themselves as black by an old white man.
It's going to be very interesting for sure. Hillary's campaign was a good candidate for a "how not to run for President" textbook, but Joe's blew past her in that regard weeks ago.
My firm belief is that without the MSM's propping him up, Joe's real polling would be under 20%, possibly single digit. There is no energy, no discussion of him, it's Trump 24/7 and that's free rent that helped get him elected last time.
I agree with everything youre saying. But youre assuming Dems have ever been good at courting the black vote- they havent. They dangle carrots and for whatever reason, it works
When a group votes 90% democrat, and when there's a black candidate on the Dem ticket even higher than that, despite all evidence that group is pure evil, then yes it is shocking.
I've never seen a poll broken down by Asian men vs women like they do for basically all other races.
My suspicion is a majority of Asian men support Trump while probably a huge majority of women don't.
I say this as an Asian. For various reasons (probably cultural) Asian women are easily influenced by media. That's probably the main reason they are against Trump.
I’ve never been so amped to vote in my entire fucking life. There’s literally nothing that can stand in my way of getting to the voting booth. I would die for this president
Don Lemon referenced some other poll when he said they should stop the rioting because its showing up in the polls. Wtf there are other internal polls the media has they dont show us.
The polls that they show us are to suppress us. It should be illegal what they are doing.
There are two sets of polls. There are the propaganda polls that act as "hype marketing" where the questions are designed specifically to project what they want to project then there are the scientific "accurate" internal polls.
CNN or the NYT had Hillary Clinton at 98% chance to win at the beginning of election day while at the same time the DNC was cancelling the fireworks display.
Dude, all of the networks, campaigns, and parties do internal polling that isn't released to the public, that's been going on for decades and decades. And yes, the public polls are generally propaganda.
Illegal? Not sure I agree. Asking questions shouldn't be illegal. The polls I have an issue with are exit polls, our ballots are secret, voters shouldn't have to face intrusive demands for their votes as they walk out of the voting booth. Just so TV networks have something to babble about before the actual returns start coming in, and they can make ad money doing it.
Because, sadly, the GOP does the same damn thing. It's not a party issue, they all do it.
Over-reliance on polls, and using polls as propaganda has been going on so long now, it's standard practice. That's why I don't pay much attention to them. The only poll that matters is a ballot.
yeah well it would be nice to see some right leaning propaganda polls make it to the msm even though you ignore it, which i do too, or look at the sampling like Bill Mitchell did, some do not know any better.
I'm from Hawaii. I highly doubt Hawaii is in play. It would warm my heart if it was but it's liberal at its core. Was one of the first gay marriage states. Caucasian is a minority there (and treated as such) and is functionally a "Hippy" paradise.
98% joggerinas want the gibs from democrats to keep flowing. They fuck thugs raw, raise their bastards in single motherhood homes, marry the state and keep taking criminal dick. No wonder black men don't want anything to do with these whores
Not going to shock me, but I don't take any polls seriously.
I've never been polled. Nor has anyone I know ever been. As far as I can tell, most polls are meaningless internet polls, or random phone calls, that are probably only answered by certain demographics who still answer phones for an unrecognized number.
I want to believe these statistics because confirmation bias, but the ONLY way we will ever see if this is true if this “38%” minority approval rating shows up to vote in person so we can all MAGA. This isn’t black vs white, that’s the media narrative. This is patriots of all races vs communists who want to divide and kill us. I’m not religious, but I hope to god our black and brown neighbors and friends see the impending doom and gloom outcome of a Biden victory.
Black, white, and all shades in between - Get out and vote for Trump like your lives depend on it.
I still don’t trust the polls, even if they had Trump at 75% approval. They missed so badly in 2016.
That being said if these numbers are true then Trump will obliterate Biden by 150+ EVs. The entire rust belt from Minn through Penn would go Trump as well as the majority of other swing states
They didn't miss "so badly". The national polling was pretty accurate. They did less well in the battle ground states but most were within the margin of error. Trump worked very hard in the last weeks in those exact states that were close and pulled off a few amazing wins in the right combination of states. What they WERE wrong with ( Bigly!) was the overall CHANCES Hillary would win - some said 100%, some 93% and I think 538 had it at 73%.
They missed very badly. The odds you are talking about were based on polls.
There were several national polls throughout the summer saying Hillary was up double digits. You had a poll showing her +11 in Florida just a few weeks before the election. For months she was way out ahead, and then she lost.
Polls always tighten up at the end because the pollsters know that historically people just look at the last few polls to judge how any given poll or pollster performed. Before that they can do whatever they want. Which is what they did - they made people think Trump had no chance.
If the polls had been accurate, no one would have been surprised on Election Night.
The polling way before the election- yes they were what they were and we don't KNOW if they were accurate or not for that point in time . The only polling that you can actually test for accuracy are the ones right before election day, and those were pretty close and most within the margin of error which is around 3%. They still gave Hillary a 75-100% chance of winning based on them.
Yes. Within the margin of error. That's why no one was surprised when Trump won, right?
The polling failures in 2016 were massive. You can't just discount all the other polling prior to just before the election. That's what sets the narrative and produces the Hillary has a 97% chance to win stories that everyone absorbed. So much potential Trump support just didn't bother because that narrative was set in stone early in 2016. Look at all the vids of the talking heads repeating it over and over.
Polling analysis is cumulative. People look at poll averages over time. Sure, you could argue that she really was 14 points ahead nationally in August, but that ignores the swing states. But it was those insane polls in the spring and summer that set the "Trump has no chance" conventional wisdom. That is a polling fail any way you slice it.
I still disagree. The FEELING the media gave everyone is THE reason the surprise was so big. 538 gave Trump a 27% chance of winning- based on the polling - which isn't a small chance at all.
Friend- we are on the same side.
Trump 2020 and may the polls be wrong again :)
But 538 adjusted their Trump chances UP to 27% a the end. And in fact Silver took a lot of flak for it. Everyone else was in the 97-3 category.
Edit: this is also interesting. The strategy this cycle may be to simply not release polling favorable to Trump. I think some of that happened in 2016 too. There were long stretches of no MSM polling that didn't make sense otherwise.
I don't believe in polls, I believe in voting.
Same. But this is encouraging. Honestly, no matter what the polls say, I truly believe our people will show up to vote in historical numbers. Enthusiasm is higher than ever!
Vote like your life depends on it, because it does.
I'm an anglo white male in Quebec, Canadastan. Sick, yet again. I had a fever for a few days, and sinus issues. Today, I feel like it's moving into my lungs. After 9 years of experience with the medical system here, I - firmly - believe that my best chances for survival are in not being tested.
drink tons of water and orange juice, keep clearing it out as you can, take hot showers, massage your sinus via your cheeks to help loosen and get rid of it, eat steak and veggies and watch funny movies.
Let's leave our favorite funny things to watch. Ill start with the Red Dinner roast
https://youtu.be/NnRVAzFa6Og
Trump and Hillary Christmas ad
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fNkniZU4VsA
Christmas ad is my favorite!
Omg I’ve never seen that Christmas one!! Haha! Love Trump!
A Fish Called Wanda and any Monty Python, Get Shorty, The Inlaws...
I've never heard that massaging your cheeks thing, I'm going to try that next time it happens to me!
you'd be amazed at what you learn from Italian Grandmothers!
I think I caught the wuflu in late December, knocked me on my ass for a good week and a half and felt distinctly different from the flu, came on really fast and during the tail end symptoms would mostly go away and then come back just as hard.
I was almost compulsively taking hot showers during it, was one of the only things that made me feel better.
I went to a cybersecurity conference in Detroit at the beginning of February and when I got back that weekend I woke up and was just decimated. Couldn't breath, heavy dry cough, vomiting, body ache like Andre the Giant just delivered a top rope frog splash. Was out of action for about 5 days. I have never been sick like that before. I actually rarely get sick. Maybe a cold in the winter or spring, but that - that was something else.
Yup, me too, same time-frame...not quite knocked out but challenging for sure. There were lots of Asian tourists around where I was (NorCal resort town). I never take antibiotics and never get sick. The only vaccine I’ve had was Hydroxychloroquin (so??) required for a Visa to India, interesting...
Get some Quercetin, zinc, vitamin c. Fluids. Sleep on your stomach as much as possible so your lungs don't have to work as hard.
Just a personal tip to a felllow pede. I had severe sinus problems for years due to a deviated septum. Whenever I would get a cold, it would lead to a sinus headache which would then lead to an infection. It would take me weeks to get rid of it, and usually require antibiotics.
I tried a lot fo sinus medicine, some helped, but nothing really worked that well. Then I found some stuff called Alleve D it is a 12 hour caplet, I don't know why, but the stuff works. I take it at the first sign of a Sinus headache, and drink a lot of fluid, and it usually clears up within an hour.
I know this isn't web MD, and I don't mean to sound like a commercial,(there are generics with the combination of Naproxin and Pseudophedrine that work just as well). But I went from being out of commission and in pain 20-30 days a year taking antibiotics for sinus infections at least 5 times a year, to not missing a day of work or being on antibiotics for the last 5 years.
I told a few people in my neighborhood who also had sinus problems about this, and my only regret is that the local drug store is always out of stock now. Just trying to help a fellow pede
This is funny, because commercials actually spend time and money trying to make themselves sound like real people giving good advice. Then real people don't know how to sound real anymore, when they're actually trying to give good advice. I'll look for it, thanks :D.
I have the same problems with colds: they turn into sinus infections or bronchitis.
I now take Mucinex D at the first sign of a cold. It's available in generic over-the-counter: look for guafacin (expectorant to prevent bronchitis) and pseudoephidrine (a decongestant to open up your sinuses).
Pharmacists keep it behind the counter, so you have to ask for it.
If we get to the point where the polls are 100% Trump 0% Biden, I'm still going to vote to offset all the dead voters that aren't getting polled.
I try to say fuck you to the democrats at least once a day here on The Donald
Edit spelling
A young man in Wisconsin last night showed us another way.
its hilarious when leftists say this same thing. Im like wtf? What do you fuckers have to be afraid of? Are you terrified that you wont be able to force communism on the population for another four years? Like why do they feel so threatened lol?
Leftists are the dumbest fucking sheep Ive ever observed.
Guys. Please do not forget that we need to vote for real republicans in the house and the senate. When getting friends or family to vote for Trump make sure they vote accordingly for congress. If Trump wins but we lose the house and the senate we are screwed anyways.
Vote straight Republican no matter what. Primaries are over, it's too late to get new MAGA people in, but we have to keep the Dems OUT
That's done in the primaries.
Lindsay Graham won 75%. I voted against him.
Don't remind me. I thought he had finally grown a pair after Kavanaugh. My parents probably still voted for him.
That's exactly it. Most people don't pay too much attention to politics. So they see "Lindsey Graham is based now" being spread everywhere, and that becomes their new permanent perception of him.
It is the same thing with lot of RINOs.
traitors don't just 'grow a pair'. i knew exactly what he was doing with that kavanaugh act and i knew it would sucker many. he says just what he needs to say and just when he needs to say it. he's a complete sham.
So did I. Sigh.
I went Buckner. My third choice also won the district, Nancy Mace, ugh. I voted for the leader or Bikers For Trump.
There are other ways but let's call those plan B for now.
I keep saying we need to remove these people ... but not with ballets.
there's gonna be 100%+ turnouts in more areas than just commiefornia unlike 2016 cuz of all the voter fraud.
Don't be discouraged. It's simply too difficult to commit enough fraud across enough states to overcome a landslide of support for Trump.
Sure there will be fraud, and we may not win as many congressional seats or senate seats as we should have (see 2018). But Trump has MORE support today than in 2016. There are MORE states in play for him now. Fraud will need to be distributed across MORE states and need to be in such a high volume that would be impractical to do without risking a serious discovery of high volume fraud (which will ensure we finally reform the elections and dramatically reduce the opportunity for fraud via Voter ID and other reforms).
michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania, those 3 states got trump the victory, and each one by a thin margin. the fraud absolutely can easily overcome us.
This. I one hundred perfect DONT give a fuck. Only the most brainwashed Hispanics would vote for a party that is actively making the country into the shitholes we collectively left. I think the key is one to make sure that people know the protestors are rioters and that those rioters are democrats
I feel like there are a lot of illegal immigrants that like trump too
Enthusiasm absolutely is higher. Compare the DNC to GOP. One preached misery, how bad the country is, and how sorry they feel for everyone. The other gave a positive outlook, highlighted our accomplishments, and gave people a sense of hope.
And the ratings prove that.
I say Trump stays in office 4 more years regardless of what happens Nov 3rd.
Well said!!! High energy!!! Let’s goooooo
I think Melania's speech last night gave the polls a huge boost. People everywhere LOVED that speech.
Best First Lady EVER.
Polls were from before the RNC started, after the DNC.
Oh no! Hahahahaha! Holy shit, that's great. Imagine what they are now.
The traditional DNC bump was a Trump bump based on the polling and electoral odds per RealClear.
Imagine if the media was fair, she'd be on every magazine cover and talk show. Because she's absolutely gorgeous.
Compare her to Big Mike, whose shoulders belong on the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it's just clown world.
As problematic as George Jr. was, Laura Bush was a great first lady. So was Barbara. Both were a breath of fresh air after Nancy Reagan.
Their husbands? That's another thread.
Even Barbara took a shot at Yeb!
Agreed, but I want to be a snowflake in this avalanche.
Boulder in a rockslide sounds nicer.
Water molecule in a hailstorm.
A pube in the bush
Yep, 36% black is end of
daysdems shit bt I hope for the best.18% would crush them
Exactly.
It doesn't matter if you like the guy, what matters is if you want the guy.
Dems: lets try it again in Kenosha...it will surely work this time
How long until they try something like this Fort Worth? I’m sure BLM will be able to throw one or two bricks before they are all mowed down by Americans.
Strange how they only go to places where it’s likely people won’t defend themselves and police will leave them alone somewhat.
They are only destroying their own.
If they try this in Michigan, they really are that dumb. The Michigan militia is no joke.
Well, BLM did "try something" in 2016, but it was technically Dallas. Close enough?
Also Dems: let's try socialism in America... It will surely work this time
I thought for sure Lebron James would sway millions of hard working American voters /s
Dey was jus' uneducated
You be dumb.
We wuz kangz
Naw, he is trying to bribe poll workers now.
Right on the front page of r/politics. I regret going there, but now I know of his scam.
I'll link it if someone wants.
They may find it surprising don't I don't care if they destroy their own cities. Just stay out of mine.
Hahaha you have Don Lemon pleading with them to stop. Always remember, politics is about contrast. None of this crap is happening in red towns and cities in that magnitude.
It's going to be the 1968 Nixon reelection all over again. Only this time, the deep state shot their wad and failed to remove him in the first term.
1968 was Nixon's first successful presidential election. He got reelected in 1972.
landslide
I can't wait to make liberals cry again!
*make them cry harder
Cry Hard: With a Vengeance
Live Free or Cry Hard
Just want to make it abundantly clear -- if 15% of Blacks vote Republican it becomes literally impossible for a Democrat to win. Too many light-blue states flip red.
36% is...unheard of.
Protip : you can win a LOT of money betting on Trump to win the popular vote on PredictIt.
You can win a bunch of money just voting on the same margin of victory that Hitlery had.
I don't think will do an individual poll like this or I could be wrong idk
Americans of all demographics are awakening and seeing strings being pulled. They are aware of the illusion.
It's beautiful, but we are under constant attack.
The Dems entire game plan is “talk about how stupid Trump is, keep Joe in the basement and let people assume he’s the better choice.”
It only works on those who are emotionally invested in supporting Democrats, like a good friend of mine. His entire Church supports Trump, his parents support Trump, and at least one of his best friends (Me) support Trump. And he thinks we're ALL brainwashed and a "cult of personality".
I think he's a lost cause for flipping, but it makes me feel good that pretty much his entire orbit (note: these are in bright blue bay area, california) are trump supporters, and he's trying to organize phone banks for Biden LOL
Newsflash: most women DESPISE Kemala. I've yet to see a single liberal woman I know say something positive about her.
Particularly black women..who all hate each other. Women like Kamala with her light skin and straight hair are the bane of their existence.
She's not black lmao. She's an Indian
She's "culturally black." That is how she's promoted herself and how she has always been known in California legal circles going waaaay back. She's Indian or "bi-racial " depending on the circumstances and when it's advantageous. And you notice she wasn't whoring herself to the Bobby Jindals of the world. She worked the black angle for Willie's favors.
Moms also don’t like “virtual” school. They did it March-June and it sucked. Total waste of time.
They know the mandatory masks and nationwide lockdown just pushes any chance of actual learning down the road further.
Don't get cocky, alpha. Just meme up those spicy redpills, and vote.
no worries, im filling redpill Rx's daily fellow pede
It's going to have to be to offset the massive mailer fraud cheating.
I don't fucking get it. I love the man and I would sacrifice my life for him and this country in a split second, because thats exactly what he is doing for us. With that said, I am going to say it-he is the man in charge, do something about it! Tweeting about potential mail in voter fraud will do nothing.
Action matters and he knows it, so whats the damn hold up? He will lose this election and we will lose this country if they have their way with mail in voting.
I understand it is up to the states, but at least an Executive Order with some sort of substance to combat the cheating that will occur
Hillary would not have exposed herself in such a nasty light if Jeb! won. We would be living in complete communism within the next 4 years under her leadership. And people would like it.
It's a federal election - why can't he cite the fraud that was proven last time around as grounds for stationing federal election monitors in known problem areas, like Philly, Detroit, etc.? Announce that, and dissuade the wannabe fraudsters from pulling their shit? It would be terrible if the initial bogus announced result was a loss, and it was left to fighting about it afterwards to overturn that.
Because constitutionally, the presidential election is handled by then states. It's up to each individual state how they want to do things. In this, his hands are tied. He can make people aware of the corruption and try to get them to demand their states do things rationally, but at the end of the day he can't make the states do anything.
Sad. As much as I want him to full 88 on these commies, I respect the constitution
I hear you. It's unfortunate in this specific instance, but I think in general not letting the federal government control presidential elections is probably a good thing.
DOJ then - conspiracy to commit federal election fraud seems like it should be something they could devote resources into investigating - Mueller and his gang of old law school buddies spared no expense for the cause of protecting the integrity of elections, so there shouldn't be any fuss about it now. But it needs to be preemptive, not reactive after a Biden 'win' is proclaimed.
I think it is a smart plan. If he jumps the gun like the democrats always do he will look like he is actively trying to mess with the vote. I think their internal numbers are telling them it is a landslide so he is just resting on his laurels. However if their numbers say landslide and it is way off with Biden "winning" due to voter fraud then he can come out guns a blazing. I think they have several contingency plans and Trump is always several steps ahead.
The RNC has already filed a lawsuit in New Jersey, claiming they are ill equipped to handle mass mail in voting, and also have a long history of voter fraud in that state.
I think they have also filed suit in NV.
They filed suit in FL and won.
The reality is that states handle elections, so there isn't much Trump can do. Granted, those elections are supposed to be fair and free from fraud. Courts have said as much.
But in the end, Trump can't do much. It's going to be a state by state thing, with the RNC leading the charge (they have the money and lawyers to do it).
Hope that helps.
Trump is going to have local and federal forces watch vote counting. He already talked about it.
Furthermore they have already been cracking down. No one else notice that we have now Caught more election counting fraud in the last year then the last 10 years.
Do we think that is coincidence?
The Us government has been ramping it up since Trump was elected.
If they’re catching them in primaries now, what is going to happen in an election that really matters.
The left doesn’t know Trump has already setup the counter narrative. That many mail in votes will have to be checked and many will be thrown out.
Dems want him to do a major action that they can claim is him creating a fascist state.
Right now Dems are in the middle of nonstop mistakes. Do not interrupt them and avoid making a mistake ourselves.
Maybe he is doing something to prevent voter fraud from behind the scene?
If Trump wins and we also win the house and the senate Trump will be able to appoint new supreme court justices sometime in the next two years when some of them finally die.
I remember reading in the past that if a Republican gained between 13 to 15% of the black vote then it is almost impossible for a Democrat to win the White House.
Ha Ha Drumpfelstilstskin! Joe Biden has already guaranteed he will get 100% of the black vote by declaring that anyone who doesn't vote for him is not black! Check - Mate! This logic also fits in with his plan to reduce the proportion of crimes committed by blacks, which is to defund the police, so there's no cops to arrest blacks when they commit crimes!
I don't see how it can be 36% blacks, but only 52% overall. That make zero sense.
Its not 36% of the 52% are blacks. He has a 52% overall approval rating, and a 36% approval rating with blacks. Since black people make up about 13% of the country it means about 4% of the 52% total is from black people.
As for why more white people don't support him - well filthy communists is why. The people boosting the riots in Portland and across the country are almost all white. They hate themselves more than anyone else.
Obviously, but my point is that if 36% of blacks are supporting him, the white rate (and probably other ethnic groups) must be much, much higher. Either this is yet another shitty poll, or perhaps it's just intimidation that people aren't talking to pollsters. Don't think the white rioters are representative of half the population. They're paid agitators, nothing more.
Either way, it goes to show that polls aren't reliable, but that rate among black people is stunning. If that's what they admit to, that real rate must be amazing.
Lol they are leftists roasties that must've taken 100 of cocks in college.
Then you gotta get control of media, hollywood, social media, etc.
What's strange about it?
Approval <> polling... but yeah... promising.
In 2016 he got 8% of the Black vote. His approval rating around this same time in 2016 was 20%. Approval rating does not equal votes. Still, that's a 16 point increase in approval from 4 years ago. There is no to way to calculate what these numbers mean for 2020 but if you directly base it off the 2016 numbers it means an increase of over 4 million votes.
No matter what though, we all NEED to vote. No matter what. Even if you're in a safely red state. We absolutely all need to vote. The more support our president has the harder it becomes for the democrats to steal the election. And lets not forget that every major source of news out there has spent the last 4 years vilifying the president. A large portion of the public has been brainwashed into believing Trump is evil incarnate. We need to fight hard for this election no matter what any poll says.
And TD is ranked 1,081 in US traffic and 5,963 worldwide!!!
I don't believe the US rank. It has hardly changed since we were 7500 or so worldwide.
It gets exponentially harder to move up as your ranking increases.
^ the difference between moving from 1100 to 1000 is waaaaaay harder than moving from 20000 to 10000. Top 1000 you’re starting to play with some of the bigger boys. Not the big boys, but bigger.
Lots of people use VPNs.
I think the worldwide rank is the one you should look at, because it accounts for all VPNs.
No, it's likely correct. As you get higher it gets much harder to go ever higher.
It’s the vpn’s. That’s why 4~% of our traffic comes from the netherlands, they have good cyber privacy laws. The dutch aren’t actually super based, we’re just showing up there a lot.
Polls are great and all but go the fuck out and vote.
VOTE NO MATTER WHAT. EVERYONE.
I saw an election a few days ago that was decided by 14 votes. If 15 people had got off their ass and voted there would have been one less dem in an office.
Or if 15 less people had died. Or if 1 less car trunk had been opened.
In person, too. No mail in bullshit.
Everybody here will vote. What we need to do now is get people not on T_D to vote.
Polls are based on likely voters (like Rasmussen, which is why it's more accurate), but most of the MSM polls aren't, which is why Trump seems lower than he actually is.
The problem with Rasmussen is they use primarily landlines, they just started using the internet and for very few things. While I one hundred percent agree they get more likely voters it becomes completely inaccurate if a small demographic actually does vote (like in 08/12). It’s also important to note we’ve had more boomers die in the last 4 years then ever before and 2020 is the first time millennials have become the most populous generation alive and of eligible voters.
Conclusion - don’t get complacent, this election is going to be closer then anyone actually thinks.
Enthusiasm wins elections. Period. Biden's highest profile supporters encourage each other to "settle" for Joe. Trump's supporters would crawl across broken glass to make sure he wins (again).
As long we all go vote, and as long as the fix isn't in (and it might be), Trump is going to win. He has the enthusiasm.
I would illegally vote for Trump, from Canada, but it's un-necessary.
That being said, if anyone wants to adopt me, I'll happily move to the USA to vote Trump 2024 legally.
I'm working on a PAC -- I call it: Operation Full-Swing
This is where Pedes who live in hopelessly blue states move to swing states to turn them red. Remember, it doesn't matter if the Dems win California by 1% of 100%, the electoral votes are all or nothing.
I suppose this could also apply to hosers like you, fren.
(I used to live in Ottawa, btw. How're things up north?)
Ottawa is growing like you wouldn't believe and the housing market is through the roof. We'll be at Toronto/New York prices soon (until BLM/Antifa riots start here - they already tried to start one but the PM and Mayor showed up in solidarity and every one of the activists went home confused)..
I tried to get elected in the Oct 2019 election but will have to wait until Trudeau finally gets taken down by the Conservative cuckparty. either a snap election when Trudeau thinks he has enough support, or a no-confidence vote in parliament forcing an election.. either way, Canada is fucked politically - especially since the PPC did so dismally.
I fully expect Alberta to separate followed quickly by Quebec. The Maritimes will side w/ Quebec and join her, while Sask and Manitoba will side w/ Alberta. Ontario and BC (the two most cucked provinces) will be left with nothing but cucks. Every patriot in the armed forces will default to Alberta or Quebec depending on their preferred language.
I'll be heading to Quebec, because [Ottawa] and because the french women are sexy. I'll ride it out till America annexes us.
Don't discount fear, either. Trump was such a question mark last time, I think a lot of what drove people to vote for him was a general loathing, hatred, and fear of a Hillary presidency.
This time, he's got the incumbent effect working for him, and BLM driving conservatives and fence sitters to show up. And his record. He's generating energy, being positive, confident, and showing leadership. He's grown into the job, and people are seeing it.
Nah it absolutely is shocking. Blacks vote for democrats 90%. Republicans usually get like 8% of the black vote in recent times
Was only 4% and 6% for McCain and Romney, respectively.
36% is insane.
If the media were actually honest, it would note a clear “Trump Effect.”
Trump isn’t Democrat or Republican. He’s Trump. Voters are very aware of this - which is why his base isn’t traditionally Republican.
He has brought in the working man - which Republicans never really had. He is making blue collar workers, regardless of race, realize that Democrats abandoned them.
My biggest shock about Trump is that tried and true union guys are supporting him. That is a total shift in voting dynamics.
But none of this is ever noted, because “Orange Man Bad.”
This is especially true - the lack of interest from the media. I ran into this a lot when I was on that old gay site Deddit. The lefties would always assume we were like George Bush Republicans. They are absolutely clueless. They'd try to shock me by saying Fox News is biased. Yeah, no shit. I'd always tell em I dislike most Republicans more than Democrats. They are still clueless to this day.
Somebody told me that Tim Poole talked about a study done where they tried to see which side could explain the other side's political opinions. Republicans performed way better, unsurprisingly.
We are being held back and held hostage by dumb.
Approval is not the same as “voting for” but I expect Trump will get historic support from the black community as compared to recent Republican candidates. The question is whether the extra support he gets from minorities will offset any losses among white women. White ladies for whatever reason are most open to voting for Biden to make rioters feel better. You can see it in the BLM protests where young white women are really the dominant force.
It's not shocking, if true, Biden's team has been grossly incompetent when it comes to rallying their black voter base, and his statements like "monolithic culture" and "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" did not go down well among blacks.
They've been even more incompetent for other minorities, they heel turned into pandering to the black vote so hard during their convention (possibly from really bad internal polling - which could bolster what Zogby is claiming to see), they practically ignored everyone else.
But the whole thing is "I'm voting for anyone who isn't Orange Man Bad", not "I believe in Joe Biden" - and i suspect the black community don't like being told how to define themselves as black by an old white man.
It's going to be very interesting for sure. Hillary's campaign was a good candidate for a "how not to run for President" textbook, but Joe's blew past her in that regard weeks ago.
My firm belief is that without the MSM's propping him up, Joe's real polling would be under 20%, possibly single digit. There is no energy, no discussion of him, it's Trump 24/7 and that's free rent that helped get him elected last time.
I agree with everything youre saying. But youre assuming Dems have ever been good at courting the black vote- they havent. They dangle carrots and for whatever reason, it works
36% aren't scared of "not being black" if they vote Trump
if 1/3 of black people support trump it secretly means 2/3+ support him. You think 100% of black people are ever polled?
This is them reporting 1/3 of their democrat roster of people who answer the phone said they are voting Trump. That's why they're shocked.
99% of Trump supporters never get polled
When a group votes 90% democrat, and when there's a black candidate on the Dem ticket even higher than that, despite all evidence that group is pure evil, then yes it is shocking.
Yeah why is that?
IKR. Their wages are higher than they've ever been! Brainwashed.
I've never seen a poll broken down by Asian men vs women like they do for basically all other races.
My suspicion is a majority of Asian men support Trump while probably a huge majority of women don't.
I say this as an Asian. For various reasons (probably cultural) Asian women are easily influenced by media. That's probably the main reason they are against Trump.
a lot of Asian-Americans use WeChat, their disapproval is due to Trump's ban
Will only get better
But Jumbo Mike said last week that things can always get a lot worse - and will (that’s a promise!)- if we don’t elect Joe Biden.
I’ve never been so amped to vote in my entire fucking life. There’s literally nothing that can stand in my way of getting to the voting booth. I would die for this president
Make sure you tug your MAGA hat down onto your head as you come out of the voting booth, for dramatic effect!
Don Lemon referenced some other poll when he said they should stop the rioting because its showing up in the polls. Wtf there are other internal polls the media has they dont show us.
The polls that they show us are to suppress us. It should be illegal what they are doing.
Don Lenin*
There are two sets of polls. There are the propaganda polls that act as "hype marketing" where the questions are designed specifically to project what they want to project then there are the scientific "accurate" internal polls.
CNN or the NYT had Hillary Clinton at 98% chance to win at the beginning of election day while at the same time the DNC was cancelling the fireworks display.
They've opened pandoras box and I don't think they can put the Bernie Bros (Antifa/BLM) back in the box.
Dude, all of the networks, campaigns, and parties do internal polling that isn't released to the public, that's been going on for decades and decades. And yes, the public polls are generally propaganda.
Illegal? Not sure I agree. Asking questions shouldn't be illegal. The polls I have an issue with are exit polls, our ballots are secret, voters shouldn't have to face intrusive demands for their votes as they walk out of the voting booth. Just so TV networks have something to babble about before the actual returns start coming in, and they can make ad money doing it.
Why wouldnt they just use the same methods as their internal polls for the public polls.
Why isnt the GOP making this an issue. I think its a big deal psychologically.
Because, sadly, the GOP does the same damn thing. It's not a party issue, they all do it.
Over-reliance on polls, and using polls as propaganda has been going on so long now, it's standard practice. That's why I don't pay much attention to them. The only poll that matters is a ballot.
yeah well it would be nice to see some right leaning propaganda polls make it to the msm even though you ignore it, which i do too, or look at the sampling like Bill Mitchell did, some do not know any better.
Stop the rioting because it's bad for the polls... stop the rioting because its bad for the country!
And Trump doesn't even carry hot sauce in his pocketbook.
Dems treat black people like pets. They throw them a bone every so often to watch their tail wag. It’s disgusting.
The Dems pandering to blacks is so fucking cringe it's like Al Johnson singing Mammy in blackface.
I can't run for president because I'm an ultrahot sauce fiend and usually have hot sauce lol
Then again maybe people would be like "yo did that dude seriously just pull a bottle of Mad Dog out?"
NY CALI IN PLAY HAWAII IN PLAY
AMERICA IS IN PLAY
MAGANOMICS PEOPLE
I'm from Hawaii. I highly doubt Hawaii is in play. It would warm my heart if it was but it's liberal at its core. Was one of the first gay marriage states. Caucasian is a minority there (and treated as such) and is functionally a "Hippy" paradise.
I'd expect NY to flip before Hawaii honestly.
"We're going to lose, aren't we?"
-Gay Black Vampires
NO COMPLACENCY! VOTE & ARM YOURSELVES!
We don't need to win, we need a landslide. Which means vote in person, get your friends to vote in person and treat this like we're losing BADLY.
Well, McCain got 4%. So Trump would be 2-3x better than him in black voters. That’s more than the Democrats can stomach.
The Trump Effect May also keep black turnout down. Why? Because they aren’t enthusiastic about Biden.
98% joggerinas want the gibs from democrats to keep flowing. They fuck thugs raw, raise their bastards in single motherhood homes, marry the state and keep taking criminal dick. No wonder black men don't want anything to do with these whores
Corn pop was a bad dude.
The Dems need to start destroying more cities fast or they're gonna lose all their supporters.
Not going to shock me, but I don't take any polls seriously.
I've never been polled. Nor has anyone I know ever been. As far as I can tell, most polls are meaningless internet polls, or random phone calls, that are probably only answered by certain demographics who still answer phones for an unrecognized number.
I want to believe these statistics because confirmation bias, but the ONLY way we will ever see if this is true if this “38%” minority approval rating shows up to vote in person so we can all MAGA. This isn’t black vs white, that’s the media narrative. This is patriots of all races vs communists who want to divide and kill us. I’m not religious, but I hope to god our black and brown neighbors and friends see the impending doom and gloom outcome of a Biden victory.
Black, white, and all shades in between - Get out and vote for Trump like your lives depend on it.
I'm the 37%!
At what odds?
It was the latest to show that Trump’s approval went up during the Democratic National Convention.
GOETUS IS GETTING A BUMP FROM...
BOTH CONVENTIONS!!!
Polls are shit. Vote.
Because most are influenced by California culture and don't own a computer. So they get all their news from he classroom.
Vote like your life depends on it. Because it does.
Vote like American liberty is at stake. Because it is.
Vote even if you have to crawl butt-naked over broken glass to get there.
Let's make it a '72 style landslide.
but don't forget your mask or they won't let you in to vote /s not /s
I have never heard of Zogby but I learned my lesson from 2015-2016 and polls are not reliable even if our guy has positive numbers.
Probably closer to 60%
That's how fucked the Dems are. Fraud is all they have left.
Me neither, but usually the candidate does get a bounce even if the convention sucks.
I can't wait to cast my vote in this landslide beatdown!
Bette midler is one ugly, fat fucking pig!!
We come here for news. This isn’t news!! 🤣
Yep, not believing polls. We'll show up and defend our nation on November 3rd. MAGA
Gonna be huge especially for the Southeastern U.S.
If he got even 10% of the Black vote.... I think it would be the end of the Democrats.
I still don’t trust the polls, even if they had Trump at 75% approval. They missed so badly in 2016.
That being said if these numbers are true then Trump will obliterate Biden by 150+ EVs. The entire rust belt from Minn through Penn would go Trump as well as the majority of other swing states
They didn't miss "so badly". The national polling was pretty accurate. They did less well in the battle ground states but most were within the margin of error. Trump worked very hard in the last weeks in those exact states that were close and pulled off a few amazing wins in the right combination of states. What they WERE wrong with ( Bigly!) was the overall CHANCES Hillary would win - some said 100%, some 93% and I think 538 had it at 73%.
They missed very badly. The odds you are talking about were based on polls.
There were several national polls throughout the summer saying Hillary was up double digits. You had a poll showing her +11 in Florida just a few weeks before the election. For months she was way out ahead, and then she lost.
Polls always tighten up at the end because the pollsters know that historically people just look at the last few polls to judge how any given poll or pollster performed. Before that they can do whatever they want. Which is what they did - they made people think Trump had no chance.
If the polls had been accurate, no one would have been surprised on Election Night.
The polling way before the election- yes they were what they were and we don't KNOW if they were accurate or not for that point in time . The only polling that you can actually test for accuracy are the ones right before election day, and those were pretty close and most within the margin of error which is around 3%. They still gave Hillary a 75-100% chance of winning based on them.
Yes. Within the margin of error. That's why no one was surprised when Trump won, right?
The polling failures in 2016 were massive. You can't just discount all the other polling prior to just before the election. That's what sets the narrative and produces the Hillary has a 97% chance to win stories that everyone absorbed. So much potential Trump support just didn't bother because that narrative was set in stone early in 2016. Look at all the vids of the talking heads repeating it over and over.
Polling analysis is cumulative. People look at poll averages over time. Sure, you could argue that she really was 14 points ahead nationally in August, but that ignores the swing states. But it was those insane polls in the spring and summer that set the "Trump has no chance" conventional wisdom. That is a polling fail any way you slice it.
I still disagree. The FEELING the media gave everyone is THE reason the surprise was so big. 538 gave Trump a 27% chance of winning- based on the polling - which isn't a small chance at all.
Friend- we are on the same side. Trump 2020 and may the polls be wrong again :)
Yes, we are on the same side. :)
But 538 adjusted their Trump chances UP to 27% a the end. And in fact Silver took a lot of flak for it. Everyone else was in the 97-3 category.
Edit: this is also interesting. The strategy this cycle may be to simply not release polling favorable to Trump. I think some of that happened in 2016 too. There were long stretches of no MSM polling that didn't make sense otherwise.
Don't care, still voting Trump 2020.
Between a shitty convention devoid of a platform and all the Burn Loot Murdering going on, they are realizing they are toast.
If those numbers hold, it's GEOTUS in a landslide! Provided the commies aren't successful in their attempts to cheat.
It's not just Emerson now bitches!
They're trying to tell us he'll win anyway so no need to make the extra effort and vote...
Wait until we really hit normies with footage of rapin' Joe Biden molesting children.
The memes will destroy this hapless cuck.
Reddit is finally realizing that trump will win. Lol