This site is called PredictIt. The short version of how it works is that a market is opened for an event, say, who wins the election, with "shares" in that outcome sold for 50 cents each, and then the prices begin to vary based on what people think the likelihood of the event happening or not happening is. A low price means people think that outcome is unlikely, a high price means they think it's very likely.
The "winning" event in each market is paid out at $1.00 a share, while the losers get nothing. You can, of course, sell your shares before they are paid out by the site and take whatever winnings you have.
The site makes money by taking a small fee (usually pennies) when trades are made, and a 5% fee when you withdraw your money.
The image I linked is all the markets I am involved in. I stand to win about $1000 on $350 wagered if all of the following happen:
Trump wins
Biden does not win ("no" shares are a thing and sometimes have more favorable prices than the "yes" prices - you can play multiple sides of the same market to hedge or take advantage. I'm about half in Trump to win and half Biden to not win. If Biden croaks or drops out, I still get paid even if Trump somehow loses. If Trump wins, both sides pay out!)
The electoral college has a GOP lead of 100-200
Biden drops out before 11/1
Trump takes Minnesota (I have you guys to thank for that idea)
Trump carries all the states he carried in 2016
Hunter Biden faces charges before the end of the year (bit of a long shot, but I can dream)
Trump takes California (A hell of a long shot, but meh, I'd only be out $5 and change)
In 2016 I made about $400 doing this. I wagered on Trump when he was still going for single digits. This time, thanks to the economy going and getting a kickass new job, I've got some more disposable income. Salty leftists paid for some nice audio equipment for me in 2016, and this time around I'm hoping they will pay for some home remodeling.
Oddly enough, about $200 of this money came from another win - I bought a bunch of Bernie, dem nomination, NO back when the market thought it was 80% likely to happen. A bunch of shares for 20 cents each paid out at $1.00.. that was a fun day.
The $350 is all of my positions across all of the markets.
I'm only $6.50 into Biden dropping out before November 1st. If he does not, I lose my $6.50. If he does, I win $50.11 (55 "yes" shares bought at around 11 cents each, and the "winning" event gets paid out at $1.00 each).
Basically it's like a stock market of sorts. People buy more shares of the event in a market (Presidential election winner, Trump, YES), which causes the prices of those shares to rise closer and closer to $1.00 (the prices that the site will pay each share out if that event comes true).
Conversely, the price goes closer and closer to 0 the less likely people think the event is to win. Right now, (Presidential election winner, Kamala Harris, YES) is going for 6 cents.
Could be people hedging on a longshot, the same way I am with California being carried by Trump. You can read that one being at 6 cents as the market thinking it has a 6% chance of happening.
This site is called PredictIt. The short version of how it works is that a market is opened for an event, say, who wins the election, with "shares" in that outcome sold for 50 cents each, and then the prices begin to vary based on what people think the likelihood of the event happening or not happening is. A low price means people think that outcome is unlikely, a high price means they think it's very likely.
The "winning" event in each market is paid out at $1.00 a share, while the losers get nothing. You can, of course, sell your shares before they are paid out by the site and take whatever winnings you have.
The site makes money by taking a small fee (usually pennies) when trades are made, and a 5% fee when you withdraw your money.
The image I linked is all the markets I am involved in. I stand to win about $1000 on $350 wagered if all of the following happen:
In 2016 I made about $400 doing this. I wagered on Trump when he was still going for single digits. This time, thanks to the economy going and getting a kickass new job, I've got some more disposable income. Salty leftists paid for some nice audio equipment for me in 2016, and this time around I'm hoping they will pay for some home remodeling.
Oddly enough, about $200 of this money came from another win - I bought a bunch of Bernie, dem nomination, NO back when the market thought it was 80% likely to happen. A bunch of shares for 20 cents each paid out at $1.00.. that was a fun day.
Highly recommended!
So you will lose $350 if Biden does not drop out on November 1st?
or $6.05?
I'm sorry. I've just never seen anything like this before.
The $350 is all of my positions across all of the markets.
I'm only $6.50 into Biden dropping out before November 1st. If he does not, I lose my $6.50. If he does, I win $50.11 (55 "yes" shares bought at around 11 cents each, and the "winning" event gets paid out at $1.00 each).
Basically it's like a stock market of sorts. People buy more shares of the event in a market (Presidential election winner, Trump, YES), which causes the prices of those shares to rise closer and closer to $1.00 (the prices that the site will pay each share out if that event comes true).
Conversely, the price goes closer and closer to 0 the less likely people think the event is to win. Right now, (Presidential election winner, Kamala Harris, YES) is going for 6 cents.
So, they truly believe that Commala Harris will be president and not Joe-"pedo basement" Biden? What does that mean?
Could be people hedging on a longshot, the same way I am with California being carried by Trump. You can read that one being at 6 cents as the market thinking it has a 6% chance of happening.