Here’s how the statistical logic of the CDC Covid Co-morbidity Report DEVASTATES THE MEDIA’S HYSTERIA — AND ITS ATTEMPTED RESPONSE
CDC Report: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Typical Media Response: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/01/fact-check-cdcs-data-covid-19-deaths-used-misleading-claims/5681686002/
TLDR: Don’t get hung up on the 6% without other conditions. The real damage of this report is that it proves that the Chinese virus ISN’T likely to be the biggest factor in causing most of the other cases, either!
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc. But the reverse is also true.
We’ve all heard stories about how anyone with a single symptom could be classified as a ‘Covid death’, and saw the change to ‘with Covid’. The listed co-morbidities can’t directly answer whether or not Covid caused a heart attack or a person WITH Covid HAD a heart attack. But reported in aggregate, they can be analyzed statistically to show what’s highly probable. And that’s why this report is such a big deal.
The likelihood of Covid causing any given heart attack decreases with the number of other co-morbidities. If I claimed that a car accident caused my heart attack, but then you found out I was also diabetic and had blood clots, you’d correctly suspect that the heart attack was more likely to be related to one or both those conditions.
For any individual case, you still might not be able to tell, even with two or three other conditions. Maybe the doctor was writing down all the possibilities or something. But if almost all (94%) of the cases have between 2-3 other conditions? It tells you that the likelihood of the other co-morbidities being caused as a direct result of Covid are extremely low.
Taken all together, this is a complete, hard-to-fake set of data with a strong correlation to observable reality, reported by doctors contemporaneously at the time of death, that doesn’t rely on ‘interpretation’ or any single gatekeeper’s subjectivity, that shows that not only is death from Covid alone rare, but that Covid is unlikely to be the greatest single factor of most of the other deaths to which it contributed.
This is why they fear this report. It’s what they’ve been hiding to keep letting them count ‘with-Covid’ deaths as ‘Covid’ deaths
Related: (by anon on the Chans)
“There are 4 key pieces of information to help Americans understand the significance of what the CDC admitted on August 26, 2020.
“For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”
For 17 Years, Medical Examiners, Coroners, and Physicians have been using nationwide guidelines for reporting fatalities with comorbidities. The guidelines were published by the CDC in 2003 and have been so effective that they haven’t needed to update them. These guidelines are known as Medical Examiners’ and Coroners’ Handbook on Death Registration and Fetal Death Reporting & the Physicians’ Handbook on Medical Certification of Death.
On March 9th, the CDC admittedly knew that the highest risk and greatest number of fatalities would come from Americans over 60 WITH comorbidities, yet inexplicably did not make the data collection on this a point of emphasis nationwide. As a result, and as we have been reporting on weekly since April 5th, 2020, only 7 states are currently publishing data on comorbidities in a way that can be analyzed statistically. These states are NY, MA, PA, OK, IA, UT, GA.
If the CDC knew, then why wouldn’t they make the collection of this data a point of emphasis nationwide?
For context, the CDC’s 2003 Handbooks are very clear that comorbidities should be listed in part 1 of the death certificate for accurate statistical counting and any initiating/contributing factors such as an infection like the H1N1 Flu virus or the SARS-CoV-2 virus would be listed at the bottom of part 1 or more correctly in part 2.
Why such an abrupt reversal exclusively for COVID-19? And why move to a new reporting system that is unproven and was never peer-reviewed? Why do this during a crisis?
This is a crucial distinction and explains exactly why our fatality counts are so dramatically higher than all other countries in the world. As Dr. Birx said, “Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death.”
That means it doesn't matter if the American was over 80, had 2.6 comorbidities on average, or even died due to injuries or poisoning, as 5,133 Americans did according to the CDC. They are still going to get counted as caused by COVID-19.
And even with such unproven methods of reporting, we know that Americans under 70 have a collective 99.05% recovery rate and 5,382,345 Americans have recovered as of August 30th.
All other countries used their standard method of cause of death reporting similar to what the CDC published in their 2003 Handbooks…while the CDC dramatically changed how cause of death is reported exclusively for COVID-19.
Here’s a key excerpt from the CDC’s 2003 Medical Examiners’ and Coroners’ Handbook on Death Registration and Fetal Death Reporting.
“Because statistical data derived from death certificates can be no more accurate than the information provided on the certificate, it is very important that all persons concerned with the registration of deaths strive not only for complete registration, but also for accuracy and promptness in reporting these events.”
“The principal responsibility of the medical examiner or coroner in death registration is to complete the medical part of the death certificate.”
“The cause-of-death section consists of two parts. Part I is for reporting a chain of events leading directly to death, with the immediate cause of death (the final disease, injury, or complication directly causing death) online (a) and the underlying cause of death (the disease or injury that initiated the chain of events [SARS-CoV-2 in this case] that led directly and inevitably to death) on the lowest used line. Part II is for reporting all other significant diseases, conditions, or injuries that contributed to death but which did not result in the underlying cause of death given in Part I.”
In the presence of comorbidity, Part 2 is where H1N1 or any infective disease would likely be listed and therefore the initiating factor would not be statistically counted as a CAUSE of death, but rather something that CONTRIBUTED to death.
Compare this with key excerpts from the CDC published March 24th, 2020 COVID-19 Alert No.2 that had many medical examiners, coroner, and physicians like Senator Scott Jensen so upset in March and April.
“Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause? The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.”
“Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.”
Compare this with key excerpts from the CDC published March 24th, 2020 COVID-19 Alert No.2 that had many medical examiners, coroner, and physicians like Senator Scott Jensen so upset in March and April.
“Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause? The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.”
“Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)”
www.cdc.gov/…/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-…
How unscientific and illogical can the CDC be during a crisis? Telling medical examiners, coroners, and physicians that ‘COVID-19 will be the underlying cause more often than not’ AND ‘If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.’
The CDC is directly saying COVID-19 will be the CAUSE of death even if it is only presumed to be present and that comorbidities will be the CONTRIBUTING FACTOR of death even though this is in DIRECT CONFLICT with their 2003 published handbooks.
This is exhibit A for how to inflate data, control the data, and in doing so control the narrative that has created so much collateral damage in our country…
I wonder how we would all feel about this if the CDC had simply used the proven system for reporting cause of death…I wonder how many jobs, small businesses, and most importantly LIVES could have been saved had they not inflated the data using unproven guidelines exclusively for COVID-19.”
The elephant in the room is that most Americans have some sort of condition that would register as a co-morbidity.
No shit that only 6% of people died from “COVID alone.” This means that if you are very healthy, your chance of dying is very low.
The problem is not that Covid doesn’t kill perfectly healthy people.
The problem is that most Americans are NOT perfectly healthy. There is a huge incidence of prediabetes, diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension in America.
Unless you live in the fucking Olympic Village, the news that this virus isn’t too dangerous to people without medical conditions is not very helpful, given that most Americans do have medical conditions.
Yes, although the strong correlation with advanced old age AND multiple co-morbidities (most of them fairly serious ones, at that) tells us that there is a certain threshold far above (or below, as it were) “perfectly healthy” and into severe or life-threatening in its own right for a large percentage of people.
I have heard rumors that medical doctors were cowed by fear of being accused of ’fat-shaming’.
Also, this knowledge implies that outdoor exercise is among the top mitigation activitiespossible
The conditions that are hit harder by Covid are not going to be easily reversed by a few months of running, but outdoor exercise was never prohibited. Even in the hard lockdowns in NYC, people still went for runs. This is still healthy in general.
It’s frustrating that people on both sides miss the issue so blindly. The left thinks it’s the indiscriminate Black Death. The right thinks it’s a common cold.
There’s room for a reasonable middle ground, and this is the reasonable policy that should be implemented. It sort of is what’s already being implemented. Both sides sort of argue themselves to where they should actually be.
Around the world outdoor exercise was banned, and many outdoor activities in the U.S. were prevented by virtue of every available area being ‘closed’ (You May remember the famous video of the paddleboarder out alone in the ocean being chased down by multiple police boats).
You can do a lot to improve your health in the space of a few months — for example, a pre-diabetic slightly obese person can totally reverse that (potentially deadly ‘top-5’ risk factor) condition with daily exercise, or fall into a morbidly obese full diabetic condition in the same 2-3 month period.
People even started calling the widespread common weight gain experienced while locked up the ‘Pandemic-15’!
Reasonable policy is not being implemented. Each and every policy save a few (those few mostly directly attributable to Trump, incidentally) has directly led to outcomes measurably worse than the supposed health risk it was presented (usually with no evidence-based support) to mitigate. The shutdown was disasterous solely from a public health standpoint. The mask mandates clearly increase the risk of infection for all parties— Governor’s nursing home orders alone are directly responsible for approximately 1/3rd of the deaths (preventable deaths, as proven by Florida). I could go on and on... *solely about health, before considering the social, economic, infrastructure, cultural, and humanity costs.
When you compare and contrast different things, it helps to have a standard by which to measure. By most objective measures, the health risk of Covid is directly equivalent to an average flu, and in no way equivalent to the Black Death.
To assume that a reasonable estimate of the truth is reached by making a ‘compromise’ between two positions, especially when only one of those positions has any connection to reality, is to surrender your reason — and your health outcomes, your financial stability, and your freedom (and ultimately your vote) to the most shameless purveyors of extremist & dogmatic antiscientific claims.
Do you know what tye average age of the people who were part of the 6% without comorbidities?
Looking over the numbers it looks that about 1/2 of them were over 75, with more than half of those (1/4 of total) over 85. The next quarter of the casesis over 55, with 2/3rds of that quarter over 65.
So of Covid (with or without pneumonia) 75% are over 55, 65% are over 65, 50% are over 75, and 25% are over 85.
So that average age is gonna be somewhere right around 80 yrs.
I think 57% of the deaths were age 75+, 78% were 65+, and 93% were 50+ so of course 94% have a minimum of 2-3 chronic diseases. Under 50 begins getting fairly rare and younger than 40 becomes super rare and exceptions with chronic diseases, severely overweight, severe asthma, AIDS, recovering from cancer, etc...not to mention the mis-attributed deaths that were gun shots, car accidents, or anything else even if it was months later and they recovered.
As the age at death of any given patient increases, the likelihood of Covid being primary among those other deadly conditions also logically declines, meaning that even among the elderly patient population (where Covid is obviously a more serious threat, in the same way that falling down is a more serious risk), the direct effect from becoming infected is likely overstated.
Thanks for noticing that, I forgot to include it.
If the evidence proved that there was a substantial amount of "pure" Covid deaths we would know about it.
This was all bullshit.
I will never forget how many morons there are in this world.
The CDC report proves that logically, irregardless of anybody’s opinion, guidelines, or mandates. They focus on the “pure Covid” part to distract away from the real impactful importance of this data — and the implications of its suppression until now.
One big question is do comorbidities only brought about by covid-19 count as a comorbidity on this? For example if they died of asphyxia or kidney failure caused by covid. If so then that would change the whole equation.
There is a different answer to this that is simpler and more truthful. The comorbidities at the top are all what happens as the disease progresses. They're about half. It's entirely possible for ALL of these to occur in a severe case that results in death.
Now, what makes this less simple: It is possible for these to occur and not be from CCPvirus. It is also possible for at least most of these to occur from Influenza A or B, which the tests can not distinguish from CCPvirus. Drs may be able to tell wuflu from flu, or they may not take the time to try, or the death certificate may get filled out in a way they know is wrong. We have no way of knowing how many of any of this actually happened.
The comorbidities in the lower section: diabetes, morbid obesity, hypertension etc, none of those can be caused by CCPvirus. About half. So rather than 6%, it's about half. The big tell is lung x-rays that are unusual and readily identify a wuflu patient. People that die with that almost certainly died from wuflu and would not have died this year without it; those are legitimate wuflu deaths. We just have no way of knowing how many are in this category either.
It's almost as simple as every number they've given us is complete bs, but not quite. 95 - 97.4% of those people did not have to die and would not have had they been given Trump pills when first diagnosed.
1- Yes, they would be listed on the form (see the ‘chan comment’ for a little more detail about this)
2- The data indicate that the ‘caused by’ scenario is unlikely for a majority of the cases, because the odds of Covid causing (or triggering) multiple co-morbidities, already pretty low, decreases further as the age at time of death increases, and that figure is skewed towards the upper bounds. (Basically, since it’s not realistic to say ‘a cold’ was responsible for an 85-yr olds’ weak heart and their pneumonia, when those conditions are already prevelant in that patient population).
They're just normal elderly deaths that they say have covid. Anyone who has a heart attack must have had covid. Also, since no other deaths are being counted, we have nothing to compare it to.
That’s an overstatement of what the reported numbers prove. It’s pretty clear that Covid caused a spike in deaths over what would be the expected normal death rate, although a large portion of these came as a direct consequence of Democrat governors using their ‘emergency powers’ to ‘inject’ infected patients directly into nursing homes filled with the most vulnerable populations.
The average death rate, when did 2020 exceed that? Some time back we were well below the average death rate from all causes. I guess I stopped paying attention to any of these numbers before that switch took place.
...as measured by Weekly number of expected deaths from all causes, so you might still be right about the overall average.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Saved. Thank you for this.