It’s incredibly hard to produce data that has predictive value using any polling methodology. Sample sizes are too small, crowds of people are concentrated in cities, too many variables, etc...A handful of models that use variables are the only accurate measurement - and the future can’t really be predicted. One model that predicted Trump’s in in 2016 by something like %90 was applied to past elections and produced the correct outcome except for 2 elections I believe.
I've never understood this. Wouldn't they want to know the truth? If Trump is really ahead, wouldn't they want to sound the alarm bells, and if he's not, wouldn't they want to shout that from the rooftops? Skewing like this would just lead to complacency, wouldn't it? Or is it to sow the seeds of confidence so that when Trump wins they say its not possible and fake election because the polls said otherwise? But even that card has already been played.
It seems to create a narrative so that no one questions the win, no matter how much they cheat. Last election the networks called California with 0% of the polls reporting and no one questioned it. It doesn’t matter that on average turnout is 60% across the country but regularly exceeds 100% in certain California counties. This is the power of the media.
Sounding the alarm publicly would surely result in depressed vote. Dem voters would think "We are losing and have nothing to offer to go back up. Why vote?"
All of this is garbage. The BAN tracks party registrations from 31 states and has published that registrations are as follows 29% Republican, 40% democrat, and 29% independent. So pollsters use this in their surveys. It doesn’t take a genius to see that omitting 19 states can have a profound impact on the numbers.
Also of note, this split is slightly “better” for republicans than it was in 2016. Bottom line is to disregard what polls and the media say... GET OUT AND VOTE!
It’s incredibly hard to produce data that has predictive value using any polling methodology. Sample sizes are too small, crowds of people are concentrated in cities, too many variables, etc...A handful of models that use variables are the only accurate measurement - and the future can’t really be predicted. One model that predicted Trump’s in in 2016 by something like %90 was applied to past elections and produced the correct outcome except for 2 elections I believe.
That Means . Land Slide Fir Trump
So who was the other 34%
Trumpendants
Communists
That would be Democrats
I've never understood this. Wouldn't they want to know the truth? If Trump is really ahead, wouldn't they want to sound the alarm bells, and if he's not, wouldn't they want to shout that from the rooftops? Skewing like this would just lead to complacency, wouldn't it? Or is it to sow the seeds of confidence so that when Trump wins they say its not possible and fake election because the polls said otherwise? But even that card has already been played.
It seems to create a narrative so that no one questions the win, no matter how much they cheat. Last election the networks called California with 0% of the polls reporting and no one questioned it. It doesn’t matter that on average turnout is 60% across the country but regularly exceeds 100% in certain California counties. This is the power of the media.
Sounding the alarm publicly would surely result in depressed vote. Dem voters would think "We are losing and have nothing to offer to go back up. Why vote?"
I will bet they polled adults or registered voters too. Garbage poll.
They did. Registered voters. Typically polls have switched to likely voters by this point. Which is how you know they are losing.
Correct.
All of this is garbage. The BAN tracks party registrations from 31 states and has published that registrations are as follows 29% Republican, 40% democrat, and 29% independent. So pollsters use this in their surveys. It doesn’t take a genius to see that omitting 19 states can have a profound impact on the numbers.
Also of note, this split is slightly “better” for republicans than it was in 2016. Bottom line is to disregard what polls and the media say... GET OUT AND VOTE!
Polls are shit. Look at RCMP and they are all over the place. +4 -20 -17 +2... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html