At a minimum, add Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine to your 309 Republican case. That's 329 Trump.
There will be at least one more blue state swinging red besides them.
The difference in those 3 is too high to count on a hidden Trump supporter. And with Mail In Voting more Democrats and normies who follow mainstream narrative will vote.
1st pick is 50% chance
2nd 10% chance
3d and the one I am hoping for is 30%
4th is 10% very unlikely.
Right now, Penn is the real and only battlefield. If that doesn't work we need Wisconsin and NH together. NH is not looking good. So yea the one where Trump wins Penn is the most likely if he wins.
So... civil war?
There's gotta be a scenario where MN goes for the President, no?
At a minimum, add Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine to your 309 Republican case. That's 329 Trump. There will be at least one more blue state swinging red besides them.
The difference in those 3 is too high to count on a hidden Trump supporter. And with Mail In Voting more Democrats and normies who follow mainstream narrative will vote.
I live in Minnesota. Most of the suburbs are scared. And the Iron Range is now cherry red.
I HOPE YOU'RE RIGHT
So, there's only four states in play and Biden must win all four to win.
all 4 lean Democrat
1st pick is 50% chance 2nd 10% chance 3d and the one I am hoping for is 30% 4th is 10% very unlikely.
Right now, Penn is the real and only battlefield. If that doesn't work we need Wisconsin and NH together. NH is not looking good. So yea the one where Trump wins Penn is the most likely if he wins.