Sooooo, would be better off holding off on the actual vote until after the election? I know I was motivated AF to vote R after Kav. I think we are going to need some help to win this thing. We are trailing in the polls and it does us no good to stick our heads in the sand.
A. Polls are garbage. Watch them magically tighten as we get close to the election so they can take their last minute numbers and claim that is what they were saying the whole time. Polls don't tell you the lay of the land any more, they are merely tools used trying to influence the narrative.
B. Waiting is a terrible idea. This goes the other way. If it isn't filled, it super motivates dems to turn out. "One last chance! The fight of our lifetime!" If it is filled, it enrages them, but a non-zero number will abandon hope and not vote because they will feel dejected and depressed. "What's the point? It's too late. 30 years of conservative supreme court rule. We won't be able to do anything."
Nominees have passed in as little as 12 days before. I say go nuts, get someone in the position by the end of the month and let the left chew on it a for month.
Really let the hopelessness of their cause marinate.
Yeah I tend to agree but if Mitch sees some value in letting vulnerable Rs avoid this vote until after the election I'm OK with that.
I am in favor of any tactic that Mitch comes up with at this point, we need this seat badly.
Election is a coin toss at this point, don't see how anyone looking at it rationally cannot come to that conclusion. Clearly need to have a Trump appointee fill this seat at any cost.
Don't be a jackass. I asked a legit question. There are a lot of factors in play here. Obviously I didn't mean wait until after the election to nominate. There can still be a vote between Election Day and when the new Congress is seated. There might be some value in not forcing a vote for vulnerable Rs in purple states prior to the election. I'll rely on the Turtle to read the tea leaves on that.
Polls are not garbage, the popular vote prediction last time was nearly right on the money. They are not the be all end all but to ignore them is just stupid.
I agree they will tighten but the betting odds which are a pretty good indicator are almost 50/50. This one is going to be tight and if you deny that you are a fool.
And on the issue in your post, we must ram this nomination through before November. To do otherwise would be to act like RINOs and play not to lose. If Trump were to lose we would lose this pick and probably Thomas's replacement. We must take the bird in the hand.
There is another possibility - hold the final Senate vote after the election but before the new Senators are seated. I agree that obviously Trump's nominee has to get the seat at any cost.
Alright, a legitimate answer: polls are only as good as their structure. Trump's polls in 2016 told him exactly what he needed to do to win. We were not privy to such internal polling. The polls we were fed on a daily basis in 2016 told us Trump had no chance. Democrat internal polls in 2016 obviously told them that they were in trouble. Why else would Hillary have cancelled her fireworks display with 2 weeks to go and why would Obama and company have instituted crossfire hurricaine and other disruptive events?
My conclusion? Public polls are garbage. Campaign internal polls are accurate. And..... popular vote means nothing.
No - polls still have some predictive value. Anyone rationally reading the public polls knew Trump had a puncher's chance in 2016.
But once the popular vote gets to a certain margin it is nearly impossible to make it up in the Electoral College. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7-8 % he will lose, that is a simple fact.
Now I agree that there are a lot of garbage push polls out there. If I had to bet right now I would think Biden leads by 3-5 % in the popular vote, a little ahead of where Hilldawg was in November 2016. But I think Biden will fall off a bit after the debates and I think we are pretty close to a coin toss by November.
Sooooo, would be better off holding off on the actual vote until after the election? I know I was motivated AF to vote R after Kav. I think we are going to need some help to win this thing. We are trailing in the polls and it does us no good to stick our heads in the sand.
A. Polls are garbage. Watch them magically tighten as we get close to the election so they can take their last minute numbers and claim that is what they were saying the whole time. Polls don't tell you the lay of the land any more, they are merely tools used trying to influence the narrative.
B. Waiting is a terrible idea. This goes the other way. If it isn't filled, it super motivates dems to turn out. "One last chance! The fight of our lifetime!" If it is filled, it enrages them, but a non-zero number will abandon hope and not vote because they will feel dejected and depressed. "What's the point? It's too late. 30 years of conservative supreme court rule. We won't be able to do anything."
Nominees have passed in as little as 12 days before. I say go nuts, get someone in the position by the end of the month and let the left chew on it a for month.
Really let the hopelessness of their cause marinate.
Honestly Democrats don’t turn out for the Supreme Court anyway. They don’t care enough.
Were you born in 2017? Haven't you seen this shit show already? And you're falling for it again? SMH
https://youtu.be/eKgPY1adc0A
Yeah I tend to agree but if Mitch sees some value in letting vulnerable Rs avoid this vote until after the election I'm OK with that.
I am in favor of any tactic that Mitch comes up with at this point, we need this seat badly.
Election is a coin toss at this point, don't see how anyone looking at it rationally cannot come to that conclusion. Clearly need to have a Trump appointee fill this seat at any cost.
What? Do you not remember four years ago?
How motivated do you think Dems will be to vote after we already have a 6-3 court?
Go back to reddit.
Don't be a jackass. I asked a legit question. There are a lot of factors in play here. Obviously I didn't mean wait until after the election to nominate. There can still be a vote between Election Day and when the new Congress is seated. There might be some value in not forcing a vote for vulnerable Rs in purple states prior to the election. I'll rely on the Turtle to read the tea leaves on that.
Polls are not garbage, the popular vote prediction last time was nearly right on the money. They are not the be all end all but to ignore them is just stupid.
I agree they will tighten but the betting odds which are a pretty good indicator are almost 50/50. This one is going to be tight and if you deny that you are a fool.
And on the issue in your post, we must ram this nomination through before November. To do otherwise would be to act like RINOs and play not to lose. If Trump were to lose we would lose this pick and probably Thomas's replacement. We must take the bird in the hand.
There is another possibility - hold the final Senate vote after the election but before the new Senators are seated. I agree that obviously Trump's nominee has to get the seat at any cost.
Alright, a legitimate answer: polls are only as good as their structure. Trump's polls in 2016 told him exactly what he needed to do to win. We were not privy to such internal polling. The polls we were fed on a daily basis in 2016 told us Trump had no chance. Democrat internal polls in 2016 obviously told them that they were in trouble. Why else would Hillary have cancelled her fireworks display with 2 weeks to go and why would Obama and company have instituted crossfire hurricaine and other disruptive events?
My conclusion? Public polls are garbage. Campaign internal polls are accurate. And..... popular vote means nothing.
No - polls still have some predictive value. Anyone rationally reading the public polls knew Trump had a puncher's chance in 2016.
But once the popular vote gets to a certain margin it is nearly impossible to make it up in the Electoral College. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7-8 % he will lose, that is a simple fact.
Now I agree that there are a lot of garbage push polls out there. If I had to bet right now I would think Biden leads by 3-5 % in the popular vote, a little ahead of where Hilldawg was in November 2016. But I think Biden will fall off a bit after the debates and I think we are pretty close to a coin toss by November.