5212
Comments (227)
sorted by:
You're viewing a single comment thread. View all comments, or full comment thread.
1
oldskoolwargamer 1 point ago +1 / -0

No - polls still have some predictive value. Anyone rationally reading the public polls knew Trump had a puncher's chance in 2016.

But once the popular vote gets to a certain margin it is nearly impossible to make it up in the Electoral College. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7-8 % he will lose, that is a simple fact.

Now I agree that there are a lot of garbage push polls out there. If I had to bet right now I would think Biden leads by 3-5 % in the popular vote, a little ahead of where Hilldawg was in November 2016. But I think Biden will fall off a bit after the debates and I think we are pretty close to a coin toss by November.