Don't be a jackass. I asked a legit question. There are a lot of factors in play here. Obviously I didn't mean wait until after the election to nominate. There can still be a vote between Election Day and when the new Congress is seated. There might be some value in not forcing a vote for vulnerable Rs in purple states prior to the election. I'll rely on the Turtle to read the tea leaves on that.
Polls are not garbage, the popular vote prediction last time was nearly right on the money. They are not the be all end all but to ignore them is just stupid.
I agree they will tighten but the betting odds which are a pretty good indicator are almost 50/50. This one is going to be tight and if you deny that you are a fool.
Alright, a legitimate answer: polls are only as good as their structure. Trump's polls in 2016 told him exactly what he needed to do to win. We were not privy to such internal polling. The polls we were fed on a daily basis in 2016 told us Trump had no chance. Democrat internal polls in 2016 obviously told them that they were in trouble. Why else would Hillary have cancelled her fireworks display with 2 weeks to go and why would Obama and company have instituted crossfire hurricaine and other disruptive events?
My conclusion? Public polls are garbage. Campaign internal polls are accurate. And..... popular vote means nothing.
No - polls still have some predictive value. Anyone rationally reading the public polls knew Trump had a puncher's chance in 2016.
But once the popular vote gets to a certain margin it is nearly impossible to make it up in the Electoral College. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7-8 % he will lose, that is a simple fact.
Now I agree that there are a lot of garbage push polls out there. If I had to bet right now I would think Biden leads by 3-5 % in the popular vote, a little ahead of where Hilldawg was in November 2016. But I think Biden will fall off a bit after the debates and I think we are pretty close to a coin toss by November.
Go back to reddit.
Don't be a jackass. I asked a legit question. There are a lot of factors in play here. Obviously I didn't mean wait until after the election to nominate. There can still be a vote between Election Day and when the new Congress is seated. There might be some value in not forcing a vote for vulnerable Rs in purple states prior to the election. I'll rely on the Turtle to read the tea leaves on that.
Polls are not garbage, the popular vote prediction last time was nearly right on the money. They are not the be all end all but to ignore them is just stupid.
I agree they will tighten but the betting odds which are a pretty good indicator are almost 50/50. This one is going to be tight and if you deny that you are a fool.
Alright, a legitimate answer: polls are only as good as their structure. Trump's polls in 2016 told him exactly what he needed to do to win. We were not privy to such internal polling. The polls we were fed on a daily basis in 2016 told us Trump had no chance. Democrat internal polls in 2016 obviously told them that they were in trouble. Why else would Hillary have cancelled her fireworks display with 2 weeks to go and why would Obama and company have instituted crossfire hurricaine and other disruptive events?
My conclusion? Public polls are garbage. Campaign internal polls are accurate. And..... popular vote means nothing.
No - polls still have some predictive value. Anyone rationally reading the public polls knew Trump had a puncher's chance in 2016.
But once the popular vote gets to a certain margin it is nearly impossible to make it up in the Electoral College. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7-8 % he will lose, that is a simple fact.
Now I agree that there are a lot of garbage push polls out there. If I had to bet right now I would think Biden leads by 3-5 % in the popular vote, a little ahead of where Hilldawg was in November 2016. But I think Biden will fall off a bit after the debates and I think we are pretty close to a coin toss by November.