** EDIT: OP has addressed my concerns, and seems to be providing all necessary and relevant information to substantiate the claims. This may be worth looking into. **
This is mathematically misleading. We are at the end of the 9th month, which means we have almost completed 9 full months. You would not divide by 9.8, you would divide by 8.8
2,033,736 divided by 9 months = 225,970
Further, how about we pull in some more yearly data. Two numbers don't make a pattern.
You are right; I'm sorry. So with 8.8 instead of 9.8, we get 231,106, which is still lower than 2019 and 2018. I will be happy to add 2017, which is 2,813,503. Still higher on average than 2020's running total.
Year Annual deaths Monthly
2017 2,813,503 divided by 12 months = 234,459
2018 2,839,205 divided by 12 months = 236,600
2019 2,855,000 divided by 12 months = 237,917
2020 (Sep 24) 2,033,736 divided by 8.8 months = 231,106
Also keep in mind the trend line. Increasing deaths (possibly in line with population growth) and then a sudden decrease. So to determine the realistic decrease, you'd have to project the expected 2020 deaths with the trend line first.
Intuitively, it's not realistic to think that the death rate has substantially dropped this year. The question is how much (or how little) it has increased.
Car accident deaths, work place deaths, emergency vehicles that wouldn't be able to make it there and back because of congestion, there's a bunch of that kind of stuff.
I think u/brother_seamus who also replied to me has a better take - reduced traffic deaths, reduced work deaths, less road congestion for ambulances transporting critical patients, etc.
This is pretty inline to what Ethical Skeptic has been saying on twitter. Those deaths from covid in march and april were mostly pull-forward deaths meaning they were people who were going to pass away within a couple months. He breaks down a lot of the covid bs with a lot of data to back it up
It's hard to find a definitive source, and I'm not sure where Sara Huckabee got these numbers, but I've been digging and compiling. I'll update with more info. I just downloaded a massive table from the CDC, and when I groked the data, the total deaths for 2019 turned into twice as many as expected, so I'll have to figure out what's going on there. I should be working now, though.
Covid is a magical cure for strokes, heart disease, and cancer.
Also, there are 250,000 deaths annually due to medical mistakes, so fewer hospital visits likely equals fewer mistakes.
** EDIT: OP has addressed my concerns, and seems to be providing all necessary and relevant information to substantiate the claims. This may be worth looking into. **
This is mathematically misleading. We are at the end of the 9th month, which means we have almost completed 9 full months. You would not divide by 9.8, you would divide by 8.8
2,033,736 divided by 9 months = 225,970
Further, how about we pull in some more yearly data. Two numbers don't make a pattern.
You are right; I'm sorry. So with 8.8 instead of 9.8, we get 231,106, which is still lower than 2019 and 2018. I will be happy to add 2017, which is 2,813,503. Still higher on average than 2020's running total.
Year Annual deaths Monthly
2017 2,813,503 divided by 12 months = 234,459
2018 2,839,205 divided by 12 months = 236,600
2019 2,855,000 divided by 12 months = 237,917
2020 (Sep 24) 2,033,736 divided by 8.8 months = 231,106
Thanks for the reply! It helps your case that you're willing to address concerns.
And you are correct, even a 2% drop in overall deaths would be something to take a close look at.
Also keep in mind the trend line. Increasing deaths (possibly in line with population growth) and then a sudden decrease. So to determine the realistic decrease, you'd have to project the expected 2020 deaths with the trend line first.
I look forward to your future work with this data!
https://thedonald.win/p/HYCAD41p/annual-deaths-visualized-in-term/c/
See
..found in white lettering within the blue title bar for Table 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
It appears data for the month of January was not included to get the 2,033,736 number.
Also, possibly a reporting lag.
Intuitively, it's not realistic to think that the death rate has substantially dropped this year. The question is how much (or how little) it has increased.
But it has to be an apples-to-apples comparison.
Why not? Assuming masks work, we likely prevented many many flu, pneumonia, etc deaths.
Car accident deaths, work place deaths, emergency vehicles that wouldn't be able to make it there and back because of congestion, there's a bunch of that kind of stuff.
Good point. There's probably much more of this than stopping flu with a t shirt.
I'm not necessarily making that assumption. I do generally wear one, but mainly because it's easy. I don't think the solid science is there yet.
I think u/brother_seamus who also replied to me has a better take - reduced traffic deaths, reduced work deaths, less road congestion for ambulances transporting critical patients, etc.
See
..found in white lettering within the blue title bar for Table 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm It appears data for the month of January was not included to get the 2,033,736 number.
2,033,736 for 2020 really needs to be verified.
This is pretty inline to what Ethical Skeptic has been saying on twitter. Those deaths from covid in march and april were mostly pull-forward deaths meaning they were people who were going to pass away within a couple months. He breaks down a lot of the covid bs with a lot of data to back it up
Yep. Life US expectancy = average age of death from COVID.
Good point. It's going to be incredibly difficult to tease all of these effects apart. Maybe impossible. Or at least, maybe not for years.
Can you link a source
It's hard to find a definitive source, and I'm not sure where Sara Huckabee got these numbers, but I've been digging and compiling. I'll update with more info. I just downloaded a massive table from the CDC, and when I groked the data, the total deaths for 2019 turned into twice as many as expected, so I'll have to figure out what's going on there. I should be working now, though.
Here's one place to start: https://vaccineliberationarmy.com/2020/04/24/death-rates-2019-vs-death-rates-2020-per-week/
Here's a source for excessively complex raw data that I'm trying to simplify (export into csv, import into database, query, etc.) https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data
To be fair, a lot less auto deaths due to lockdown.
The data possibly excludes January.
GEOTUS has saved over 30,000 lives!
not me. i haven't been played.