I had to split this into 3 parts because it was too long for one post. It's worth the morale boost.

Part 1: (This post)

Part 2: https://thedonald.win/p/HYCCTIyA/vote-vote-vote-trump-is-headed-f/

Part 3: https://thedonald.win/p/HYCCTIyH/vote-vote-vote-trump-is-headed-f/

We are SURROUNDED by polls, doubts, numbers, and the classic "this will surely be the end for Drumpf" bullshit. Some of us have even lost friends in this cycle, and it hurts. What helps morale is the reminder of constants that are reliable, and they are 100% in favor of Trump.

Historically reliable variables suggest Trump has an extremely high probability of winning no matter what gets in the way.

Some of these are well-known but the top one, the most insightful in my opinion, is much more rare and I cannot find who posted it on Reddit a while back, but it's a proven formula and insanely basic. I give credit for whoever came up with it.

1. Fall-In-Love Candidates vs. Fall-In-Line Candidates

Every presidential candidate falls into one of two categories: A fall-in-line candidate or a fall-in-love candidate.

Let's go back to 2008 and 2012 as an example. Ron Paul is bullied out of the RNC and McCain, the party favorite, is given the nomination. Romney was also the party favorite in 2012, as getting a proper "anti-Obama" was difficult among voters. Neither of them could really get to their nomination without their party leadership's prior blessing. And even with the scandals in his first term, Obama still won a second term. How did this happen?

It's all in the natural flow of how candidates get their nominations.

2008 started with Hillary being the party favorite. Don't like her? Then you had to fall-in-line behind her, even if she didn't naturally get supporters to beat Obama. Obama was the charismatic new kid on the block, a talented speaker (given a teleprompter) and a silky voice. And somehow, he beat out Hillary. He was the candidate people fell in love with even if the party leadership said otherwise. Trump took on the RNC in 2016 and also won against all attacks, and beat Hillary out in spite of 95% of all the polls saying he has no chance in hell of winning. Trump, like Obama, falls into the fall-in-love category given their seemingly unstoppable political rise against the wishes of the party's leadership.

The rule is this: given a fall-in-love candidate goes up against a fall-in-line candidate, the fall-in-love candidate ALWAYS wins.

Kennedy was FLove in 1960, and Reagan was FLove in 1980+1984. Bill Clinton was FLove in 1992+1996, Obama was FLove in 2008+2012 (even with a large EC decline in '12), and Trump was FLove in 2016. All of these candidates did not require party leadership blessing: they all got to where they were in spite of elitist meddling. (Even the media was far more pro-Hillary than pro-Obama in the 2008 primaries, as they had already selected their pick).

What about the other elections? The rule is also simple: a fall-in-line candidate versus another fall-in-line candidate is always a toss-up. 2000 and 2004 are great examples. Bush was party elite, and both Gore and Kerry were also Dem party elites (making them all FLine candidates). Both elections were rather close, with <40 EC margin between them.

2016, we all saw what happened on the Democratic side. I was a Berniebro before walking into The_Donald and being handed a coat. Sanders was a fall-in-love candidate for many with obvious enthusiasm - we all saw it. Hillary? The party favorite, propped up and given all the superdelegates before hand. And so, the fall-in-line candidate (Hillary) was picked to go up against the fall-in-love candidate (Trump).

Per this rule, Trump won. Now in 2020 (as someone who watched all the Democratic debates), it's miraculous that Biden did as well as he did, because go onto every anti-Trump place on the internet and he is being propped up as a "bullet-biting solution" to a problem as opposed to a true hope for a better country, like Trump campaigned on. Nobody loves the guy. The party was shilling for him as far back as 2017.

Given this rule, Trump will win on November 3, 2020, despite a pandemic, race riots, PNW rebellions, media scandals, and hateful and vile mass opposition.

But what about FLove vs. FLove? We really don't know. Maybe we'll find out someday, but it won't be in 2020.