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posted ago by OsakaRaccoon ago by OsakaRaccoon +25 / -0

I had to split this into 3 parts because it was too long for one post. It's worth the morale boost.

Part 1: https://thedonald.win/p/HYCCTIu6/vote-vote-vote-trump-is-headed-f/c/

Part 2: https://thedonald.win/p/HYCCTIyA/vote-vote-vote-trump-is-headed-f/c/

Part 3: (This post)


3. The Two-Term Guarantee

This is less than fully secure, but even the vast majority of professors, AI models, and prediction equations say this variable is extremely important, and the vast majority of them are predicting a Trump victory.

It's extremely common and since the 1960s almost every president going for a second term has gotten it. So what about 1980 and 1992? See Rule #1.

Carter was a Democratic Party favorite and Reagan was the fall-in-love character, and Carter couldn't beat that. In 1988, Bush Sr. won with a lot of the Reagan clout and was a party favorite, but then was beat by Bill Clinton in 1992 (you could argue they were a fresh charismatic face to a triple-loss party). Bush Sr. was not prepared for a post-Cold War world. Ross Perot running also did not help by any means.

So given you are an FLove candidate (like Trump) and you are running for a second term, it's extremely likely (historically-speaking) that you will win reelection.


I know this was a LOT to type up and for you to read, but among the bombardment of doubt, polls, and hate, just remember where the right side of history REALLY is.

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dataonly 1 point ago +1 / -0

Bush first had a pre Internet boom recession that had actually turned around before his term ended. However, the data showing the turn around was not until the election was over. He was also the Read My Lips, No New Taxes guy. Then he was rolled by congress.

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deleted 0 points ago +1 / -1
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OsakaRaccoon [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

They take into account far, far more than that. The reality is that those movements are limited to youths, social media, and large corporations - all of which are marginal at election determinations.

Young people just don't show up to vote, and as we learned in 2016, people in corporations or unions will not blindly follow higher-up endorsements if they are obviously feeling betrayed. Given Trump's positions, he has been obviously on the side of workers and police, and extremely few people in those professions will vote Biden.

In addition to this, Biden's campaign staff in Florida (per Politico) admitted a contradiction in policy: to socially distance and wear masks, but to also go out and protest with BLM, and those same people admitted the damning detail: at these protests, they made no attempts to register anyone.

They admitted that large groups and events are how they get their youth vote...none of which exist in 2020. Trump's ground-game staffers go door-to-door and engage Americans that are less likely to be online or watching biased news networks. Trump also has more volunteers in his campaign this year than Obama did in 2008 (who previously set the record).