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Banick088 4 points ago +4 / -0

There isn't one, we really have no clue. Here is what the average of the final 5 state polls in 2016 went down.

MN - Weighted heavy for D + 7% more than results showed

WI - D + 7%

PN - D + 6%

Iowa - D + 7%

NC - D + 11%

Maine - D + 4%

MI - D + 7%

We have faaaar more energy and support than we did then. The polls are meaningless.

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No_name_iii 3 points ago +3 / -0

Also, for what it's worth, Trump is beating his 2016 numbers by 0.4% in battleground states (according to realclearpolitics average). If we can expect similar discrepancies, that seems to favor Trump.

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No_name_iii 3 points ago +3 / -0

Its such an unknown. Biden enthusiasm is so low, Trumps is so high. At the same time, every idiot who would not normally vote is being mailed a ballot. Will they bother to return them?

Good comparison to 2016. Are those realclear numbers?

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Banick088 2 points ago +2 / -0

No, I went to the polls directly.

If you check the final 5 polls for each of those states, that is the average.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

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No_name_iii 2 points ago +2 / -0

Ah. Looks a lot like 2016 with the exception of the popular vote.

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deleted 0 points ago +2 / -2
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EpicTrump 2 points ago +2 / -0

The number of American flags or Trump signs in your area. Voter enthusiasm. Look at the Trump rallies, boat parades, car parades. There’s your poll.

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deleted -1 points ago +1 / -2
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MagaHistorian 3 points ago +3 / -0

Your pedo guy is going to lose worse than cankles did. You should really be out canvassing for your pedo guy because its not looking good. You usually don’t wait until October to start. UH OH!

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deleted 1 point ago +1 / -0
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irspow 1 point ago +1 / -0

The best ‘poll’ isn’t a poll at all. Not based on skewed sample biases, the Primary Model uses actual voting data. It has correctly identified the Presidential winner for 25 of 27 elections. (Since 1912 when primary was first used.) The Primary Model in March of 2016 predicted Trump would win with 87% certainty. The 2020 prediction is for Trump to be reelected with 91% certainty. There is no ‘poll’ that has this kind of record.

http://primarymodel.com/

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TheImpossible1 1 point ago +1 / -0

Do any of them factor in the mortally challenged?