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48
mathman 48 points ago +48 / -0

Based on what I've read, Nate Silver developed some eccentric theories that make him feel he possesses a unique knowledge of politics and everything else.

Those theories are great fun until he has to predict something, and then they're like an elephant on his back. It's almost impossible to turn on a dime two weeks before an election.

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GakLivesMatter 22 points ago +24 / -2

I don't know, personally Silver seemed to give Trump a far bigger chance than anyone else who wasn't MAGA on election night. Given most pundits, even ones on our side, his predictions in the 70% chance of Hillary (if memory serves me correct) seem tame in the face of all the 99% from the NYT and stuff. But maybe my memory is wrong.

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mathman 8 points ago +9 / -1

Fair enough, but adherence to his own models limited how much and how quickly he could adapt as events fluctuated so wildly before the election. He had Hillary stuck at 72 percent or so, while the Weiner laptop announcement was driving her chances well below 50 percent.

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wondermonkey75 13 points ago +13 / -0

Whatever happened with the Weiner laptop? That's the one of the few things I've questioned the last couple years.