I know Trump is going to be because it just feels like he can't be stopped...my parents on the other hand love Trump but are scared by the polls. What are some indications that I can give them to reassure them that things are looking good for Trump on Nov 3rd?
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Attendance to his rally’s were always what I paid attention to. Hillary’s were dismal, and Biden’s are worse than hers.
It’s no difference in determining a successful rock band. Ticket sales 👍🏻
Republican registration in the swing states has outpaced Democrats by a good margin, and Trump voters are much more enthusiastic (according to polls) than Biden voters.
The size of Joe Biden's rallys.
The escalating desperation to take him down, including the latest "arrow in the quiver" by infecting him.
Like everyone else is saying, rally size. However also keep in mind any news about voting. I see problems fixed daily.
I'm also in the camp that thinks 2018 was a honeypot, as in extra fraud was allowed to happen so it could be calmly corrected for 2020.
Norpoth primary model says that Joe lost the presidency when he placed fifth in New Hampshire.
The fact that Trump has nearly 9 times as many followers on Twitter as Joe.
And 10x on facebook
Never count your chickens before they hatch.
Democrats are going to try and steal this election.
Trump said so himself in no uncertain terms.
Because I said so! I am never wrong, just ask my wife.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/new-jersey-results
Some early voting results are coming in, Dems seem to be underperforming (select state at the top)
Enthusiasm is much higher than 2016, and the Left has ramped up their crazy, IMO.
They said Hillary had a 98% chance of winning. They aren’t even giving us fake polls where Biden has nearly that kind of odds.
Pretty much EVERY poll that asks who people THINK will win comes out overwhelmingly Trump.
That indicator has been right more than the actual polls themselves over the years. There’s something very powerful about crowdsourcing people’s estimates because they tend to aggregate quite accurately.
Also there are other tracking indicators involving social media data that trend very heavily Trump.
Here’s what we do know: most of the polls are not being done accurately. We can tell this by the internals whenever they are provided. You can throw them out.
To my eyes we are looking at a 2016 redux with T flipping at least 1 new state. He may still lose the popular but the electoral looks solid. Admittedly, the voter fraud issue is a wildcard, as is the whole mail-in ballot fiasco.
If you want some confidence from a polling standpoint, follow Richard Baris on Twitter @Peoples_Pundit. Professional pollster who was very accurate last time. He does a great job deconstructing why the polls are wrong, and he is particularly bullish on winning Florida and Pennsylvania, among others.
Professor Helmut’s primary prediction he does has Trump winning with 91% certainty. This prediction has only missed twice, 2000 and 1960 both of which were crazy elections. He predicted Trump 87% certainty in 2016
Watch a couple of What are the Odds videos on YouTube. The people’s pundit and Robert Barnes make strong cases that the polls the media play up are way off. For instance the NYTimes polls are assuming 30% of the electorate will be new voters which has never happened in history. Also, they believe new voters will break 2-1 Biden, in 2016 in places like Pennsylvania they broke towards Trump.
Factor in the enthusiasm gap was 5 points towards trump in ‘16 and 30 points in ‘20 and at a minimum you come to the realization it’s going to be a very competitive election if held today.
In my 50 years of voting it’s the number of people who come to hear him speak. He knows he must reach out to as many as possible and he has in every way. It was Hillary’s big mistake. Social media has an impact but there is no substitute for go old fashion campaigning.
I posted evidence of his impending reelection in 3 parts but it went mostly unnoticed (late-night submission). First part is here:
https://thedonald.win/p/HYCCTIu6/vote-vote-vote-trump-is-headed-f/
Another more raw indication is that even the Democrats have admitted that Biden's ground game in Florida is extremely poor due to the campaign's very strict COVID precautions. The campaign was relaxed on allowing their staff to attend protests, but did not instruct them or provide them with any resources to register voters at them.
Trump's ground game in the state has broken a record, surpassing Obama's volunteer numbers in 2008. The COVID regulations by that campaign are more relaxed.
Per Politico, the Democrats were confident with Florida in 2016 because they had a sizable amount of voter registrations over the GOP's own numbers. Trump still won the state. The Dems this year have quietly admitted that the GOP has come much closer in closing that margin this year, meaning the GOP is going into Florida on election day with numbers better than 2016.
With this information and the RNC's newer state-of-the-art internal polling systems, along with claims made from the RNC's staffers, I'm extremely confident that Trump will win Florida, and thus propel him closer past 270.
Democrats suddenly changed strategies, distanced themselves from BLM, distanced themselves from the Green New Deal, started using a font like Trump’s, plagiarized his slogan, said Hire American, nominated/installed a straight white man as the candidate, etc.
Why would they do this if Biden was ahead by so much with all their previous messaging that they actually agree with?
Primary turnout heavily favored Trump and it is a pretty good indicator by historical trends.