Calculating someone’s odds of dying from something isn’t bound by their population... It sounds like they multiplied several probabilities together, I wouldn’t mind seeing how it was arrived at
I think they have a point, they are just making it poorly.
If only 1 in 19 million die of COVID, that means there would only be 2 COVID deaths for that age group in all of California. The number is clearly higher than that, so this statistic is bullshit
So your odds of dying from covid are orders of magnitude LOWER than dying from the flu? Look, I believe the response to covid has been entirely irrational and downright malicious, but the numbers you guys are spreading here are obviously nonsense. I don't think you understood the point of the person you replied to.
That's not how stats work. Stats just give odds of something happening. They don't literally tell you how many people it will happen to.
Simply put, say the odds of dying were 1 in 4. That means your chances of dying are 25%. That does not mean that one person will always die out of every 4 people. It could be none die, or they all could die, or anything in between.
No, but it means in a large enough sample size the actual data will in fact approach that number.
1 in 4 dying doesn't mean 1 person will die out of a group of 4.
It does mean that out of 20 million people, the number of dead will be near 5 million.
The sample size they are dealing with is large enough to provide accurate statistics.
You also have to factor in time frames. There is a 100% death rate for every living creature on this planet. But not today.
I suspect they used time frames to extend those numbers because it's easily provably false any other way. As he said, even one person dying in that age range gives the lie to that stat, and a lot more than 1 have died from it.
It's more likely to be something like "On any given day, people 50-64 in California have a 1 in 19 million chance of dying from covid."
What do you mean? Women have a 1 in 7 chance of getting breast cancer
That means 1 in every 7 women, statistically, will end up diagnosed with it
So that's why the Cali stat makes no sense. There are 2.5 million people in that age range, so even if only 100 people died, that's already a 1 in 25,000 chance (still very good odds to be fair)
That statistic doesn't make any sense. There are only 2.5 million total people in California in that age range.
If even 1 person died, that would make it 1 in 2.5 million - so 1 in 19 million is impossible.
Calculating someone’s odds of dying from something isn’t bound by their population... It sounds like they multiplied several probabilities together, I wouldn’t mind seeing how it was arrived at
What do you mean? Women have a 1 in 7 chance of getting breast cancer
That means 1 in every 7 women, statistically, will end up diagnosed with it
I'm just going to say it, you're dumb as shit.
That also means 2 in 14,
It also means 20 billion in 140 billion, or 10 billion in 70 billion even though there aren't that many people.....
Did you just sleep through math?
I think they have a point, they are just making it poorly.
If only 1 in 19 million die of COVID, that means there would only be 2 COVID deaths for that age group in all of California. The number is clearly higher than that, so this statistic is bullshit
So your odds of dying from covid are orders of magnitude LOWER than dying from the flu? Look, I believe the response to covid has been entirely irrational and downright malicious, but the numbers you guys are spreading here are obviously nonsense. I don't think you understood the point of the person you replied to.
If you don't know how to simplify fractions, I can't help you.
That's not how stats work. Stats just give odds of something happening. They don't literally tell you how many people it will happen to.
Simply put, say the odds of dying were 1 in 4. That means your chances of dying are 25%. That does not mean that one person will always die out of every 4 people. It could be none die, or they all could die, or anything in between.
No, but it means in a large enough sample size the actual data will in fact approach that number.
1 in 4 dying doesn't mean 1 person will die out of a group of 4.
It does mean that out of 20 million people, the number of dead will be near 5 million.
The sample size they are dealing with is large enough to provide accurate statistics.
You also have to factor in time frames. There is a 100% death rate for every living creature on this planet. But not today.
I suspect they used time frames to extend those numbers because it's easily provably false any other way. As he said, even one person dying in that age range gives the lie to that stat, and a lot more than 1 have died from it.
It's more likely to be something like "On any given day, people 50-64 in California have a 1 in 19 million chance of dying from covid."
What do you mean? Women have a 1 in 7 chance of getting breast cancer
That means 1 in every 7 women, statistically, will end up diagnosed with it
So that's why the Cali stat makes no sense. There are 2.5 million people in that age range, so even if only 100 people died, that's already a 1 in 25,000 chance (still very good odds to be fair)
What do YOU mean? You aren't making any sense.
I've explained myself thoroughly.
If there were only 2.5 million people in California ages 50-64, the states total population would only be like 10 or 12 million.
Wrong. https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-statistics
I don't know why you are being downvoted. The people responding to you have no idea what they are talking about.
Nothing new unfortunately.
Actually you're wrong. There are not 2.5 million ages 50-64. Not sure where you got that, it's not anywhere near that low.
No, you're wrong. https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-statistics
You clearly have never taken a Statistics 101 course.
Provide something of value to the discussion or remain silent.