This is the OP from the google cache of this page:
Reposting as I didn't realise I'd posted 3am US time
Below are some things I have picked up from around the internet and various reading. While these alone don't mean Trump will definitely win, they do show an interesting picture hidden behind the media's polls.
Most of the info is sourced, but if you have any questions let me know
Enjoy
1.Trump got more primary votes than any incumbent in history - by a lot. In fact he almost received the most primary votes of anyone in history, incumbent or not.
Trump got about 18.1million primary votes, during a pandemic, with some GOP primaries being completely cancelled. This was more than the amount of primary votes he got in 2016, I’m not sure if anybody has ever done this before.
The previous record was Clinton in 1996, with 9.7million votes.
In 2012 Obama got 6.1m primary votes as the incumbent, and went on to easily win the election.
The Primary Model Poll, which has correctly predicted 25 of 27 presidential races based on primary results, shows an easy Trump win.
2.Pennsylvania GOP voter registration. Despite Biden running away with PA in the polls, voter registration shows an interesting story.
GOP new voter registration is outstripping the Dems in almost every county. Since June 2020, Dems have been more successful than the GOP in only 6 of the 67 counties.
3.Ground campaigns. The Biden campaign suspended all ground campaigns during the pandemic, relying solely on online campaigns, while the Trump campaign continued door to door canvassing, still considered the most effective way of signing up voters.
Local Dems in Michigan recently expressed their alarm that the Dems did not have a single physical campaign office in the state, against an extremely active GOP campaign.
The Trump campaign also recently claimed they have knocked on 100million doors nationwide, against Biden’s 0, an average of 1 million doors a week
The Trump campaign also took the title for the largest grassroots support in history, with over 2.2million volunteers, beating Obama’s 2012 record
4.Biden’s last minute switch to ground campaigns. Following on from above, the Biden campaign made a last minute decision to restart physical ground campaigning, despite calling the GOP’s campaigning dangerous and irresponsible.
In some states they started these operations just days before the states registration cut off dates, even though polls show them easily winning the states.
5.Hispanic support in Florida and nationally for Trump. Many polls show Trump’s support among Hispanics growing, with an early September poll showing his national support going from 28% to 35%
In Florida, Clinton won the Latino vote by 27% and still lost the states. Polls show Trump now beating Biden in overall Latino support. Among Cuban-American Florida voters in particular, Trump has at times led by 40%
6.Running a reactive campaign. Despite being ahead in polls, Biden’s campaign seems to be largely reactive to Trump’s.
After Trump visited Kenosha, Wisconsin after rioting, Biden denounced the visit, but two days later backtracked and visited himself.
After Trump visited Florida that same week, Biden immediately followed with a visit. Biden has also been campaigning in states Clinton won in 2016 that should be an easy win, such as Nevada, while not visiting key swing states.
7.Enthusiasm gap. It’s no secret Biden hasn’t had many supporters at his events, or rallies, or general displays of support. Some of that can be blamed on COVID. What cannot be blamed on the pandemic is the fact that many, if not most Biden voters are voting AGAINST Trump, and who the Democratic candidate is would make no difference.
A YouGov polls from 5th August showed: 62% of Biden voters stated they are voting AGAINST Trump, rather than for Biden, while 79% of Trump voters stated they are voting FOR Trump, rather than against Biden.
This number has remained largely consistent
Another very interesting stat is the question ‘Who do you think will win the election’ or phrased another way, ‘Who do you think your neighbour is voting for?’
This can be used as a way to gauge ‘shy’ voters, who won’t state who they’re voting for but will speculate who their (possibly imaginary) neighbour is voting for.
In the YouGov poll, despite Biden having a +9pt lead, when asked who they think will win, registered voters have the candidates in a dead heat, at 39% each, with 21% saying Not Sure.
This is in line with the last several YouGov polls that have Trump almost always winning the election in this question.
There are many of these polls and I haven’t personally seen each one, but in the ones I have seen, Trump has never lost the ‘Who do you think will win the election’ question
8.The effect of the riots. Although these have largely died down (there was violent rioting in Wisconsin this week) the effect could be long lasting, and Trump is still seen as the law and order candidate.
A Rasmussen poll dated September 15th 2020, shows that:
42% of likely voters experienced protests in their communities 48% if these say the protests turned violent 76% of these voters say the protests and riots are important to their vote, and almost a super majority approve of the job Trump is doing
9.The VP pick. This might be a case of picking the ‘do no damage’ candidate, but it does seem that the pick of Kamala Harris as VP for Biden will do very little to earn him more votes.
It’s a confusing pick since Kamala is offers little to the ticket to balance out Biden. A VP pick would often be from an important swing state, or state where there is a chance to pick up more voters.
However Biden is from deep blue Delaware (unless you believe he’s from PA) and Harris is from even deeper blue California. They aren’t picking up any votes there they already weren’t going to.
Even though she is from CA, she doesn’t seem very popular there. She ended her Presidential campaign bid on December 3rd, 2019, long before any primaries.
Despite rising in the polls after the first Democratic debates in June 2019, she ended her campaign with only 3% support from Democratic voters nationally
Perhaps even worse, among CA democrats, she had only 7% support in the state she is senator for.
Nice writeup
I hope you are right. I maxxed out my bet on PredictIt and have $850 riding on the election.
I normally never bet on anything, ever. This one felt right so I put up the money.
Holy novel Batman
This is a really good post. I really hope this is all true because the Democrats are doing a good job and making me panic right now.
This is the OP from the google cache of this page:
Reposting as I didn't realise I'd posted 3am US time
Below are some things I have picked up from around the internet and various reading. While these alone don't mean Trump will definitely win, they do show an interesting picture hidden behind the media's polls.
Most of the info is sourced, but if you have any questions let me know
Enjoy
1.Trump got more primary votes than any incumbent in history - by a lot. In fact he almost received the most primary votes of anyone in history, incumbent or not.
Trump got about 18.1million primary votes, during a pandemic, with some GOP primaries being completely cancelled. This was more than the amount of primary votes he got in 2016, I’m not sure if anybody has ever done this before.
The previous record was Clinton in 1996, with 9.7million votes.
In 2012 Obama got 6.1m primary votes as the incumbent, and went on to easily win the election.
The Primary Model Poll, which has correctly predicted 25 of 27 presidential races based on primary results, shows an easy Trump win.
2.Pennsylvania GOP voter registration. Despite Biden running away with PA in the polls, voter registration shows an interesting story.
GOP new voter registration is outstripping the Dems in almost every county. Since June 2020, Dems have been more successful than the GOP in only 6 of the 67 counties.
Since the PA Primary on June 2, 2020, the GOP have added new 135,619 voters, and the Dems 57,985 https://patch.com/pennsylvania/lansdale/crucial-pa-trump-registers-far-more-new-voters-biden.
3.Ground campaigns. The Biden campaign suspended all ground campaigns during the pandemic, relying solely on online campaigns, while the Trump campaign continued door to door canvassing, still considered the most effective way of signing up voters.
Local Dems in Michigan recently expressed their alarm that the Dems did not have a single physical campaign office in the state, against an extremely active GOP campaign.
The Trump campaign also recently claimed they have knocked on 100million doors nationwide, against Biden’s 0, an average of 1 million doors a week
The Trump campaign also took the title for the largest grassroots support in history, with over 2.2million volunteers, beating Obama’s 2012 record
https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/09/18/bidens-campaign-doesnt-even-have-a-michigan-office-according-to-report https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/trump-campaign-reaches-100m-voters-in-campaign-milestone/ https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2070574169253/trump-campaign-claims-over-22-million-volunteers-largest-grassroots-movement-in-presidential-history
4.Biden’s last minute switch to ground campaigns. Following on from above, the Biden campaign made a last minute decision to restart physical ground campaigning, despite calling the GOP’s campaigning dangerous and irresponsible.
In some states they started these operations just days before the states registration cut off dates, even though polls show them easily winning the states.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-1e4e392fff3fed0a7925ef9cd9ca33e1
5.Hispanic support in Florida and nationally for Trump. Many polls show Trump’s support among Hispanics growing, with an early September poll showing his national support going from 28% to 35%
In Florida, Clinton won the Latino vote by 27% and still lost the states. Polls show Trump now beating Biden in overall Latino support. Among Cuban-American Florida voters in particular, Trump has at times led by 40%
https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/09/why-president-trumps-hispanic-support-is-growing/ https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/08/new-polls-show-tie-in-florida-biden-struggling-with-latino-voters/
6.Running a reactive campaign. Despite being ahead in polls, Biden’s campaign seems to be largely reactive to Trump’s.
After Trump visited Kenosha, Wisconsin after rioting, Biden denounced the visit, but two days later backtracked and visited himself.
After Trump visited Florida that same week, Biden immediately followed with a visit. Biden has also been campaigning in states Clinton won in 2016 that should be an easy win, such as Nevada, while not visiting key swing states.
https://www.voanews.com/usa/race-america/biden-visits-kenosha-two-days-after-trump#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%2D%20Democratic%20presidential%20candidate%20Joe,a%20Black%20man%20by%20police. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-to-return-to-nevada-on-friday-for-first-visit-since-the-caucus
7.Enthusiasm gap. It’s no secret Biden hasn’t had many supporters at his events, or rallies, or general displays of support. Some of that can be blamed on COVID. What cannot be blamed on the pandemic is the fact that many, if not most Biden voters are voting AGAINST Trump, and who the Democratic candidate is would make no difference.
A YouGov polls from 5th August showed: 62% of Biden voters stated they are voting AGAINST Trump, rather than for Biden, while 79% of Trump voters stated they are voting FOR Trump, rather than against Biden.
This number has remained largely consistent
Another very interesting stat is the question ‘Who do you think will win the election’ or phrased another way, ‘Who do you think your neighbour is voting for?’
This can be used as a way to gauge ‘shy’ voters, who won’t state who they’re voting for but will speculate who their (possibly imaginary) neighbour is voting for.
In the YouGov poll, despite Biden having a +9pt lead, when asked who they think will win, registered voters have the candidates in a dead heat, at 39% each, with 21% saying Not Sure.
This is in line with the last several YouGov polls that have Trump almost always winning the election in this question.
There are many of these polls and I haven’t personally seen each one, but in the ones I have seen, Trump has never lost the ‘Who do you think will win the election’ question
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0qsgk3wcg/econTabReport.pdf
Another demonstration of the enthusiasm gap is when Biden visited Michigan and Wisconsin on separate occasion, not only was he not greeted by supporters, he was met by large groups of Trump supporters protesting him instead https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/joe-biden-arrives-michigan-greeted-crowd-trump-supporters-chanting-4-years-video/
8.The effect of the riots. Although these have largely died down (there was violent rioting in Wisconsin this week) the effect could be long lasting, and Trump is still seen as the law and order candidate.
Pennsylvania ‘law and order’ voters prefer Trump 74-16 https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Toplines-PAStatewide-FallOmnibus-Sept2020.pdf
A Rasmussen poll dated September 15th 2020, shows that:
42% of likely voters experienced protests in their communities 48% if these say the protests turned violent 76% of these voters say the protests and riots are important to their vote, and almost a super majority approve of the job Trump is doing
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/september_2020/trump_s_the_choice_for_voters_who_ve_experienced_violent_protests
9.The VP pick. This might be a case of picking the ‘do no damage’ candidate, but it does seem that the pick of Kamala Harris as VP for Biden will do very little to earn him more votes.
It’s a confusing pick since Kamala is offers little to the ticket to balance out Biden. A VP pick would often be from an important swing state, or state where there is a chance to pick up more voters.
However Biden is from deep blue Delaware (unless you believe he’s from PA) and Harris is from even deeper blue California. They aren’t picking up any votes there they already weren’t going to.
Even though she is from CA, she doesn’t seem very popular there. She ended her Presidential campaign bid on December 3rd, 2019, long before any primaries.
Despite rising in the polls after the first Democratic debates in June 2019, she ended her campaign with only 3% support from Democratic voters nationally
Perhaps even worse, among CA democrats, she had only 7% support in the state she is senator for.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-03/california-voters-wanted-kamala-harris-to-drop-out-of-presidential-race-poll-found
Outside of CA, her pick as VP seems to have done very little to improve the Biden campaigns numbers in key swing states.
A YouGov poll in Florida found that 32% of voters are enthusiastic about Kamala as VP pick, vs 46% dissatisfied or angry
Overall, 29% of Dems somewhat or very dissatisfied with their candidate choices vs 8% of Republicans
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12KO6RXYt9519HgwvDB9SRlS5tqZ9OG8S/view