And for all the noise people are making about Trump losing seniors to COVID, I’m calling BS
Seniors aren’t gonna get behind a Marxist critical race theory party, and PPD has shown some solid data to suggest they’re more likely to be “shy Trump voters.”
Florida is the swing state I am most confident about. (I don’t consider OH a swing this year, I consider it lean right)
we're CRUSHING them in Pennsylvania voter registration
newest poll out of FL shows Trump +4 and voter regs in FL are also very encouraging. In 2008, Dems had 800k more registered voters. Today, it's only a 140k difference
Daines just had a +9 poll in Montana and James v. Peters in Michigan is competitive
Doesn't he remember in 2016 where all anyone talked about on the news during October was how the replacement process for the Republicans would work now that Trump had to step down as a candidate?
That's exactly it, older folks watch a lot of TV, especially FOX, and they're not hip to how much FOX has changed. They don't get their news online as much, they're not as savvy as far as where the "good information" is. They are often oblivious to the stories that we all know about by heart.
I've tried to point my parents to online sources, including TD.
I would focus on:
POLLS - Clinton was leading Trump in 2016 by MORE than Biden is leading now in the 6 key swing states. She lost them ALL.
OTHER POLLS - Questions about who people THINK will win - which have always been highly accurate - are showing Trump dwarfing Biden, even if it's a bad poll for Trump. That indicator reveals a LOT.
OTHER DATA - Social media data is overwhelming for Trump. Far more interest, far more people searching for how to "vote Trump" than "vote Biden" - it looks very similar to 2016.
OTHER MODELS - Models like Helmut Norpoth, which has been right 24 out of 26 times, show a Trump electoral blowout.
VOTER REGISTRATION - Voter registration in key swing states like PA and NC shows those critical states becoming more red, not less. The same exists almost across the board in all swing states - and other new states that we could flip, like Minnesota.
There is a LOT to be enthusiastic about. In fact, the ONLY data point that Biden has that looks good for him are the fake polls—which are demonstrably fake, simply by looking at the internals, they're all D+8, D+10 type polls that assume huge turnout. If you were to look at everything else with an objective eye, this looks a lot more like 1984 or 1972 than a loss.
The mail-in ballots and voter fraud are the wildcard - THAT'S what your dad should mainly be concerned about, IMO.
I just found PPD the other day - they’ve made me so much more confident. Rich really knows his shit.
As I watch more I plan on sharing some facts with my fam to keep morale high :)
ESPECIALLY the voter registration numbers are encouraging.
PPD is showing me that the Rust Belt flip, and possibly even Florida last year, weren’t flukey swing state pick ups - they’re part of an electoral realignment.
It’s great because most of the others prognosticators who give Trump a chance either rely on alternative polling (Trafalgar, Democracy Institute, etc) or completely dismiss polling and rely on fundamentals or intangibles
Rich is a pollster himself, but he’s so good at getting into the data BEHIND good polling, and not only polling, but what drives voter decisions and voter turnout.
Yes, I think we should be talking more about Richard Baris' work around here, it is encouraging. He does a good job and sees things clearly. I told someone about him the other day on another thread.
A while ago I had said I expected 68 million votes for Trump to the Democrats 64 or around there. I have to imagine they're not going to get a bunch of new voters but Trump will pick up people who voted Clinton in 2016 and a few of those Clinton voters are gonna stay home this time. I also said I thought the D's were going to ram Kamala down the D's throat but after Tusli ko'd her ass in the primaries they had to push her as the VP we all know will end up being president in the fluke chance they pull off all the voter fraud.
Much of my family moved to Arizona. While you have a lot of California transplants too stupid to realize whey they moved, Arizona will be going for Trump. All of those older voters, you know the people who make sure they actually place a vote, have the knowledge and life experience to know who to vote for.
I don’t mind AZ being called a swing state this time, and I even buy that McSally is in for a tough go of it - but we also have a TON of right-leaning independents, conservative libertarians, and Mormons who probably abstained or voted 3rd party last time, and will probably be coming back to Trump. Couple that with a relatively old population, Trumps increased strength with Latinos, the voter reg data (one of the only swing states Reps actually have an objective advantage in), and it being a historically red state - and I just don’t buy that it’s gonna flip yet.
My very elderly MIL who is a die-hard Democrat was red-pilled on the boat parades. We live on the water in Southern NJ, there was a HUGE boat parade locally that we watched with her. We told her that the media would downplay or not even report on it. She didn't believe. That night, on the evening news, they showed two boats and suggested that was the extent of the parade. Her mouth agape, she said WHAT? She's voting Trump, it took a long time to convert her, but the boat parade was the final straw.
I live on the internet. I read everything from everybody. Your dad just needs to filter. Don't watch tv news, it's a cesspit. I was confident Trump would win in 16 and I'm more confident he will win in 20. MAGA
Keep the faith. This was me 4 years ago. People support the president more now than 4 years ago. The news and polls are disinformation. Trust your eyes.
Trump’s lost almost none of his base - but remember all those never Trumpers? A few still hate him, but many didn’t vote for him because they thought he wouldn’t be a conservative. He’s been extraordinarily conservative.
This is mostly a base and new votes election in my opinion - we are killing voter registrations and Trumps base will only get bigger as right-leaners who didn’t choose him last time come home.
Remember last time? And how much of a landslide was it? Fake news and fake polls have a financial interest in showing it to be close because if they report the real poll data everyone stops paying attention to them, then on election night and the next few days everyone watches to see what a "surprise" it was. It's fake news being fake.
Tell your father this is literally a huge psy op by the media. They did this in ‘16 too. The whole thing is to demoralize and demotivate republican voters.
If the Dems were not so scared he was obviously willing, they would not be willing to cheat so openly. You know that when they lose this time, Papa T is absolutely locking down on mail in ballots and demanding voter ID. They are using every dirty tactic they can knowing that if they lose, hes going to block them from using them again.
Imagine the country in another 4 years if Papa T got the presidency, house and senate... He already owns the supreme court.
Polls are oversampling Dems, were only adjusted to account for uneducated white males, but don’t take into account first-time voters.
New studies have just come out that Trump voters are two times more likely to lie about voting for Trump to pollsters bc they don’t trust their info to remain confidential.
The media is covering up any good press coverage of Trump or his supporters. News coverage is 90-ish% negative.
Take heart! And vote! And bring a friend to vote. The Dems will try to cheat but we can be vigilant poll watchers and we can bring our friends to vote.
My old man still lives on FOX news, but even he recognizes they are going to shit and doesn't believe the polls for one minute so he's been watching alot of OAN
I need to give OANN another try. I've tuned in a couple times but it looked like a less refined version of what I already hate (the anchor, reporter, pundit, commercial, repeat) format.
The only thing that quells my constant anxiety is prayer and working in politics. I mostly volunteer on Trump Talk (https://www.armyfortrump.com/) or for state races. I'm not sure if he has the time for that though, but if so, it really does help.
Listened to Rush the other day and Rush had a great point-
Political hacks are paid to lie. The MSM is nothing but lies. If you were to take all of the paid activists out of your information pool and based the election on what you see/know to be true- who would win?
My area is flooded with Trump lawn signs
My area is flooded with Trump bumper stickers
Trump had a rally nearby and drew thousands.
I don’t see Biden signs
I don’t see Biden bumper stickers
Fairly confident Trumps going to win. I'm concerned if he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, an Wisconsin while not picking up other states but I find that outcome to be less than 10%. Democrats path to victory would require taking like 3-5 toss up states which is statistically rare.
That's why I posted this a couple days ago... the media's job is to demoralize you. IT'S LITERALLY THEIR JOB. Media does NOT exist to inform, it exists to INFLUENCE.
My advice, stop listening to the media, then go find some people and get them to vote for Trump.
Also... another thing, if he's in AZ he should be excited. That's a HUGE state in this election. Even getting one extra Trump voter on board is huge.
Good point! I’m very confident about both Ohio and Florida, which are both historical bellweathers
As Ohio goes so goes the country, at least since since 1960 when JFK won without Ohio. And Biden is no JFK, not by a long shot.
Except JFK cheated in Illinois soooo...
Technically JFK didn't, the mob did due to a request from JFK's father.
I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell Biden takes Florida or Ohio
Same. Ohio might not go for us by 9 again, but it’ll be more than 5.
Increased Latino support and a more energized Trump base tells me Trump will win Florida by more than last time. I’d predict by more than 2% actually.
And for all the noise people are making about Trump losing seniors to COVID, I’m calling BS
Seniors aren’t gonna get behind a Marxist critical race theory party, and PPD has shown some solid data to suggest they’re more likely to be “shy Trump voters.”
Florida is the swing state I am most confident about. (I don’t consider OH a swing this year, I consider it lean right)
Leading by A LOT!!
They used to say that about new Hampshire. I'm not giving up if he loses. Get the war paint
we're CRUSHING them in Pennsylvania voter registration
newest poll out of FL shows Trump +4 and voter regs in FL are also very encouraging. In 2008, Dems had 800k more registered voters. Today, it's only a 140k difference
Daines just had a +9 poll in Montana and James v. Peters in Michigan is competitive
There's so much more. Keep the faith
These are big ones for me!
I just told my parents about the stuff I’ve seen on People’s Pundit Daily about how we’re destroying the Dems on voter registration in swing states
red eagle politics does a good job on youtube explaining everything.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0SMGmU6X9zJBGCGarr7ODQ
Red Eagle is good. He’s like a more layman friendly version of PPD with the stuff he focuses on in his analyses
Are their any favorable polls in the senate race, everything I've seen shows McSally losing big
Because she's a horrible candidate running against a VERY popular candidate. Can't believe we ran her twice...
She was asked point blank repeatedly "Do you support President Trump" and THIS is what she said
RINO who excites exactly nobody
You’d think RINOS would learn they need Trumps base by now, but they haven’t.
AZ Republicans seem to have a real soft spot for RINOS too, frustrating.
McCain, Flake, etc
We should've primaried her ass outa there but whatever. She's 10x better than Kelly but Kelly is immensely popular
They kept McCain in office for 1000 years so they may be Republican but they're the dumb version lol jk to all the AZ pedes
I mean you’re not wrong though 🤣
Barry Goldwater just reached 10,000 rpms.
And RedTruck88, I’m not aware of any favorable numbers for McSally.
If she wins, it will be on Trump’s down-ballot coattails alone.
I will be voting for her, but with about 0.00001% of the enthusiasm I have for my Trump vote
You're right, tell your Dad to hang in there. If we stick together and turn out to vote, good things will happen
Doesn't he remember in 2016 where all anyone talked about on the news during October was how the replacement process for the Republicans would work now that Trump had to step down as a candidate?
He remembers how it was last time - I think somethings just gotten to him so he’s afraid we can’t do it again.
I say it will be even sweeter this time!
LANDSLIDE INCOMING TRUMP 2020 MAGA! 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲
VOTE. AND TAKE A FRIEND OR FIVE.
Maybe we all hear the drums
That's exactly it, older folks watch a lot of TV, especially FOX, and they're not hip to how much FOX has changed. They don't get their news online as much, they're not as savvy as far as where the "good information" is. They are often oblivious to the stories that we all know about by heart.
I've tried to point my parents to online sources, including TD.
I would focus on:
POLLS - Clinton was leading Trump in 2016 by MORE than Biden is leading now in the 6 key swing states. She lost them ALL.
OTHER POLLS - Questions about who people THINK will win - which have always been highly accurate - are showing Trump dwarfing Biden, even if it's a bad poll for Trump. That indicator reveals a LOT.
OTHER DATA - Social media data is overwhelming for Trump. Far more interest, far more people searching for how to "vote Trump" than "vote Biden" - it looks very similar to 2016.
OTHER MODELS - Models like Helmut Norpoth, which has been right 24 out of 26 times, show a Trump electoral blowout.
VOTER REGISTRATION - Voter registration in key swing states like PA and NC shows those critical states becoming more red, not less. The same exists almost across the board in all swing states - and other new states that we could flip, like Minnesota.
There is a LOT to be enthusiastic about. In fact, the ONLY data point that Biden has that looks good for him are the fake polls—which are demonstrably fake, simply by looking at the internals, they're all D+8, D+10 type polls that assume huge turnout. If you were to look at everything else with an objective eye, this looks a lot more like 1984 or 1972 than a loss.
The mail-in ballots and voter fraud are the wildcard - THAT'S what your dad should mainly be concerned about, IMO.
Yuge rundown - thank you :)
You got it!
I think he was referring to his dad. I hope Dad logs into TD!
PRAY that with ACB we can push voter ID through the supreme court on Nov 2 and nullify mail in ballots.
Wheres that "Trump wont be president" montage from 2016 when you need it?
Edit: https://youtu.be/Z6Oczyk6nCw
Hahahaha one of the greatest videos of all time
I forgot about this gem 👌😂
I just found PPD the other day - they’ve made me so much more confident. Rich really knows his shit.
As I watch more I plan on sharing some facts with my fam to keep morale high :)
ESPECIALLY the voter registration numbers are encouraging.
PPD is showing me that the Rust Belt flip, and possibly even Florida last year, weren’t flukey swing state pick ups - they’re part of an electoral realignment.
PPD is legit the most knowledgeable and important person out there
It’s great because most of the others prognosticators who give Trump a chance either rely on alternative polling (Trafalgar, Democracy Institute, etc) or completely dismiss polling and rely on fundamentals or intangibles
Rich is a pollster himself, but he’s so good at getting into the data BEHIND good polling, and not only polling, but what drives voter decisions and voter turnout.
Yes, I think we should be talking more about Richard Baris' work around here, it is encouraging. He does a good job and sees things clearly. I told someone about him the other day on another thread.
A while ago I had said I expected 68 million votes for Trump to the Democrats 64 or around there. I have to imagine they're not going to get a bunch of new voters but Trump will pick up people who voted Clinton in 2016 and a few of those Clinton voters are gonna stay home this time. I also said I thought the D's were going to ram Kamala down the D's throat but after Tusli ko'd her ass in the primaries they had to push her as the VP we all know will end up being president in the fluke chance they pull off all the voter fraud.
If Trump were losing, Pelosi would have never mentioned impeachment less than 30 days from the election.
Yeah this is huge. This is not how a “winning” party behaves.
Biden’s internals have gotta he showing something bad for them
Much of my family moved to Arizona. While you have a lot of California transplants too stupid to realize whey they moved, Arizona will be going for Trump. All of those older voters, you know the people who make sure they actually place a vote, have the knowledge and life experience to know who to vote for.
I’d have to agree.
I don’t mind AZ being called a swing state this time, and I even buy that McSally is in for a tough go of it - but we also have a TON of right-leaning independents, conservative libertarians, and Mormons who probably abstained or voted 3rd party last time, and will probably be coming back to Trump. Couple that with a relatively old population, Trumps increased strength with Latinos, the voter reg data (one of the only swing states Reps actually have an objective advantage in), and it being a historically red state - and I just don’t buy that it’s gonna flip yet.
Remember the polls said Hilldawg by 94%
It’s all lies! I remember their exact tactics from 2016. They are losing worse in 2020... MAGA
Yeah. The Swamps tactics are stronger this time which suggests to me they know they’re in bigger trouble
Without the Democrat oversampled polls they had no way to sell the depressing narrative.
Everytime a Trump spoke is on they ask "Trump is down in this and that poll, what you gonna do about it?"
My very elderly MIL who is a die-hard Democrat was red-pilled on the boat parades. We live on the water in Southern NJ, there was a HUGE boat parade locally that we watched with her. We told her that the media would downplay or not even report on it. She didn't believe. That night, on the evening news, they showed two boats and suggested that was the extent of the parade. Her mouth agape, she said WHAT? She's voting Trump, it took a long time to convert her, but the boat parade was the final straw.
I’ve noticed this is the singular best way to redpill people. I’ve done it to my roommate on a couple occasions.
When something goes down, get the drop on it, show it to someone, and say “Okay now just WATCH how the media covers this.”
Nobody likes the corrupt establishment, they just need proof that they exist and that Trump is their enemy.
Makes me smile seeing all those flags :D
I live on the internet. I read everything from everybody. Your dad just needs to filter. Don't watch tv news, it's a cesspit. I was confident Trump would win in 16 and I'm more confident he will win in 20. MAGA
Hook him up with the oann network it's free on kloudtv for the rest of the year. Get him away from the fake news.
Show him the 2016 young Turks meltdown video compilation by Dame Pesos after showing him the polling for Hilary Clinton.
My brain gets a major dopamine rush whenever I hear Chunk say “Okay, G*d damn it I’m nervous”
Keep the faith. This was me 4 years ago. People support the president more now than 4 years ago. The news and polls are disinformation. Trust your eyes.
I agree. Here’s my biggest “high-level” argument.
Trump’s lost almost none of his base - but remember all those never Trumpers? A few still hate him, but many didn’t vote for him because they thought he wouldn’t be a conservative. He’s been extraordinarily conservative.
This is mostly a base and new votes election in my opinion - we are killing voter registrations and Trumps base will only get bigger as right-leaners who didn’t choose him last time come home.
Exactly. Rest easy.
Yeah, it’s funny how you can KNOW the media is full of shit , but if you continue to digest it, it still gets to you.
I might encourage him to take a break from the news until about a week before Election Day
https://www.pinalcentral.com/politics/trump-rallies-hispanic-supporters-in-arizona/article_18662a66-00f4-5e86-9a28-2c141a41e6e9.html this was in AZ
Tell him to trust his eyes not the suppression polls that oversample Dems.
Trump supporters are everywhere. 50million tuned into Rush. There are Signs, flags, flotillas, parades not to mention Trump rallies.
Republican registration dramatically is up in key states like Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Very true!
Go out and vote, God will let us prevail and GEOTUS is the man for the job!!
His will not mine be done, but I gotta believe He will let the good guys win :)
Remember last time? And how much of a landslide was it? Fake news and fake polls have a financial interest in showing it to be close because if they report the real poll data everyone stops paying attention to them, then on election night and the next few days everyone watches to see what a "surprise" it was. It's fake news being fake.
Get him on here!
That Twitter thread is a gold mine for sure
Tell your father this is literally a huge psy op by the media. They did this in ‘16 too. The whole thing is to demoralize and demotivate republican voters.
He is not alone.
I agree, we gotta stand strong!
I think a nice fast from news media would help all of us during October
Hopefully, we'll all get to take turn throwing commies out of helicopters. This keeps me going.
50 mil listeners on rush
Ask him to remember what he was thinking a few days before the 2016 election. Same shit... different year.
Tell him that if the situation was hopeless their propaganda would be unnecessary.
If the Dems were not so scared he was obviously willing, they would not be willing to cheat so openly. You know that when they lose this time, Papa T is absolutely locking down on mail in ballots and demanding voter ID. They are using every dirty tactic they can knowing that if they lose, hes going to block them from using them again.
Imagine the country in another 4 years if Papa T got the presidency, house and senate... He already owns the supreme court.
Polls are oversampling Dems, were only adjusted to account for uneducated white males, but don’t take into account first-time voters.
New studies have just come out that Trump voters are two times more likely to lie about voting for Trump to pollsters bc they don’t trust their info to remain confidential.
The media is covering up any good press coverage of Trump or his supporters. News coverage is 90-ish% negative.
Take heart! And vote! And bring a friend to vote. The Dems will try to cheat but we can be vigilant poll watchers and we can bring our friends to vote.
My old man still lives on FOX news, but even he recognizes they are going to shit and doesn't believe the polls for one minute so he's been watching alot of OAN
OAN is what Fox should be
I need to give OANN another try. I've tuned in a couple times but it looked like a less refined version of what I already hate (the anchor, reporter, pundit, commercial, repeat) format.
Newsmax is the new hotness.
Polls are fake news the people are energized to vote for Trump which you don't see for sleepy Joe. Have faith brother we'll get through this!
The only thing that quells my constant anxiety is prayer and working in politics. I mostly volunteer on Trump Talk (https://www.armyfortrump.com/) or for state races. I'm not sure if he has the time for that though, but if so, it really does help.
Listened to Rush the other day and Rush had a great point-
Political hacks are paid to lie. The MSM is nothing but lies. If you were to take all of the paid activists out of your information pool and based the election on what you see/know to be true- who would win?
My area is flooded with Trump lawn signs My area is flooded with Trump bumper stickers Trump had a rally nearby and drew thousands.
I don’t see Biden signs I don’t see Biden bumper stickers
Look at what our great President has accomplished with all the crap that's been going on. God bless our great President and God bless America!
Underrated answer! Trumps record speaks for itself!
Fairly confident Trumps going to win. I'm concerned if he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, an Wisconsin while not picking up other states but I find that outcome to be less than 10%. Democrats path to victory would require taking like 3-5 toss up states which is statistically rare.
62 million people voted for Trump in 2016. 50 million people listened to him on Rush Limbaugh on Friday.
That's why I posted this a couple days ago... the media's job is to demoralize you. IT'S LITERALLY THEIR JOB. Media does NOT exist to inform, it exists to INFLUENCE.
My advice, stop listening to the media, then go find some people and get them to vote for Trump.
Also... another thing, if he's in AZ he should be excited. That's a HUGE state in this election. Even getting one extra Trump voter on board is huge.
Just wanted to say my dad is the same way. He keeps saying “it’s over!”
I don’t see no fat ladies singing yet!
Well, only Rosie O’Donell
make sure he gets out and votes as well as gets all his friens out too! I personally just moved to AZ in order to vote red for your pops!
All three of us are voting Trump, as are at least 3 of my roommates! Think I really helped convince 2 of them, working on the last one lol
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWubnBV028_4rVoDPt7FpNQ
PPD is awesome
It is! Dude knows his shit. Needs shilled more.
Swing states is what it comes down to.
Biden is polling worse than Hillary did in 2016.
Many mail in votes are invalid. Most are democrat.
We will win, but it will take conservatives getting off their asses and actually voting.
What you mean the polls that say trump is leading in every swing state?
Just show him the 2016 polls.
We have all the energy!!!