How Trump Wins Florida
HIGH ENERGY
Warning, Florida Data Dump:
In 2016 there were 4,575,277 registered Republicans and 4,905,705 registered Democrats for a blue lead of 330,428.
Trump won by 112,911. This shows a hidden 443,339 Republican jump.
In 2020, they're 5,020,199 registered Republicans and 5,203,795 registered Democrats. The blue lead shrunk by 146,832 down to 183,596.
If the hidden jump stays the same, Trump wins by 259,743 this time. If we add the new voters, Trump wins by 406,575.
You might think thats nuts, but Dubbya won it by 380,000 in 2004.
I think Trump is going to win even bigger in florida. Going to pick up huge numbers in Dade. Great post!
Big GOP registration gains in PA and NC as well, with AZ slightly more Republican on a percentage basis.
According to Robert Barnes, it’s never happened where a candidates party makes gains in registration (proportionately) in a state and the candidate does worse in that state.
If that trend holds, we can count on FL, NC, PA, AZ.
Unfortunately the rust belt states don’t do party ID registration so we don’t have data for those.
Unfortunately also Dems seemed to have made registration gains in NV, CO, and New Hampshire although I had trouble finding data for them.
Still though, electoral map looking pretty encouraging going by voter ID trends.