Just like in 2016, we are seeing the same tired polls being thrown around at the national level where +5 to +13 Democrat sampling is being used. This is how you see polls where Biden is leading by +9 to +14.
Here are some examples of why Trump will win:
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In the last 100 years an incumbent has lost re-election 5 times. In each of those times there were pretty damn good reasons for it happening. Twice there were popular third party candidates to split votes, a couple times they lost due to a bad economy and then there was the Watergate scandal where Ford had no chance.
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The Primary Model is hands down the most accurate predicter for Presidential Elections. Since 1912 it has only missed on two elections, 1960 and 2000, the two closest elections in our history. Candidates that do very well in their primaries have a high probability of winning the election. Trump garnered 94% of all GOP primary votes and set records in many states for incumbent votes. No incumbent has ever lost after receiving 75% or more of the vote.
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A President with a good economy always wins. It's the single most important factor for a President. The economy is already booming again after the lockdowns. "It's the economy stupid."
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In a recent Democracy Institute Sunday Express Poll, a poll that didn't oversample Democrats, Trump is beating Biden 46% to 45% and winning almost all battleground states by a healthy margin (4%).
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A new Gallup poll reports 56% of Americans say they are better off now under Trump than they were four years ago under then-President Obama and then-VP Joe Biden. 56% is the highest number in the history of Gallup polling. Why would Americans vote for Biden if they are better off under Trump?
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In that same Gallup poll from 1984, Ronald Reagan got 44% and won the election in a landslide.
This is mounting up to be a major landslide, even with election fraud it will probably be too much for Democrats to overtake.
Just remember, don't be complacent, get out and VOTE!
Good points here. Thanks for explaning this.