And honestly I think it looks very good. It pretty much confirms a lot of my hunches so far.
What really jumped out is that rural voters and white no-college voters are a smaller percentage of absentee/early voters than in 2016. These are without a doubt Trump's strongest supporters (even Dems won't argue with that). They are definitely waiting to vote in person on Election Day. Meaning turnout for Trump supporters on actual Election Day should be stronger than even in 2016.
African American early voting is noticeably higher than in 2016 as is urban voting, which probably goes hand in hand. African Americans and urbanites are mostly Dem. As many predicted, due to COVID, we are probably getting a ton of Dems voting early and it's juicing the numbers for them right now.
Another data point that is interesting is that people that are highly likely to vote are voting early at higher rates than in 2016. These are probably your hardcore partisans on BOTH sides. Bases seem energized (as predicted) on both sides and they are voting early.
But younger and first-time voters are a smaller percentage so far than in 2016. I think Bernie bro types are staying home again.
You add up everything I just mentioned here and keep in mind that the GOP has had an amazing ground game registering new Republican voters and getting more white non-college people registered. These are probably people that are probably waiting until Election Day.
I've been playing around with the data here:
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
And honestly I think it looks very good. It pretty much confirms a lot of my hunches so far.
What really jumped out is that rural voters and white no-college voters are a smaller percentage of absentee/early voters than in 2016. These are without a doubt Trump's strongest supporters (even Dems won't argue with that). They are definitely waiting to vote in person on Election Day. Meaning turnout for Trump supporters on actual Election Day should be stronger than even in 2016.
African American early voting is noticeably higher than in 2016 as is urban voting, which probably goes hand in hand. African Americans and urbanites are mostly Dem. As many predicted, due to COVID, we are probably getting a ton of Dems voting early and it's juicing the numbers for them right now.
Another data point that is interesting is that people that are highly likely to vote are voting early at higher rates than in 2016. These are probably your hardcore partisans on BOTH sides. Bases seem energized (as predicted) on both sides and they are voting early.
But younger and first-time voters are a smaller percentage so far than in 2016. I think Bernie bro types are staying home again.
You add up everything I just mentioned here and keep in mind that the GOP has had an amazing ground game registering new Republican voters and getting more white non-college people registered. These are probably people that are probably waiting until Election Day.