Yeah it is too early to look at yearly statistics.
But in 5 years we will see the full picture and realize that 2020 was just a blip in the death statistics followed by 3 years of lower death in 21, 22, 23. We will wonder why we freaked out and paused our economy over this and come to find out the economic and social damage was worse than an abnormal number of old folks dying a few years early.
I'm really curious to see what 2020's final numbers are from the CDC in terms of deaths by month. I tried to do some digging, but as of right now we only have Jan-Mar available.
On the top-right of the page, there's a dropdown menu labeled "Display by Year".
For 2020, so far we have the following recorded:
January - 263,000 deaths
February - 243,000 deaths
March - 268,000 deaths
Now, here are the numbers from 2019:
January - 258,000 deaths (5,000 fewer than 2020)
February - 233,000 deaths (10,000 fewer than 2020)
March - 255,000 deaths (13,000 fewer than 2020)
These numbers seem to indicate an increase in deaths, first by 5k, then 10k, then 13k. But what about adjusting for population growth? I wish a true statistician would look at these figures, but here's the best I can do.
Population growth in the United States from 2019 to 2020 is 0.59%, however I'm not entirely sure if it's mathematically sound to multiple the 2019 deaths by 1.0059 to arrive at a 2020-adjusted figure. If it is correct, then those 2020-adjusted numbers are as follows:
January 2019 - 259,522.2 deaths
February 2019 - 234,374.7 deaths
March 2019 - 256,504.5 deaths
What would make these figures meaningful would be including the last 10+ years into the calculation in order to take into account any sort of standard deviation.
Anybody with more experience/knowledge in this area, please feel free to chime in to educate me and everyone else!
This is what I've been waiting for. All cause mortality numbers. Please source, as others have asked. If the numbers were that high they'd be screaming them. Heck, we'd believe them. Are more people actually dying this year than others? Me thinks not.
Ditto!
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Not saying you're wrong but a LOT of deaths happen in winter.
A more accurate stat would be to match the % of overall deaths from winter months, not the average over the entire year.
Yeah it is too early to look at yearly statistics.
But in 5 years we will see the full picture and realize that 2020 was just a blip in the death statistics followed by 3 years of lower death in 21, 22, 23. We will wonder why we freaked out and paused our economy over this and come to find out the economic and social damage was worse than an abnormal number of old folks dying a few years early.
Agree. I don't know where these number are coming from. CDC, last I checked, still hadn't released the 2019 mortality rate numbers, much less 2020.
I'm really curious to see what 2020's final numbers are from the CDC in terms of deaths by month. I tried to do some digging, but as of right now we only have Jan-Mar available.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
On the top-right of the page, there's a dropdown menu labeled "Display by Year".
For 2020, so far we have the following recorded:
Now, here are the numbers from 2019:
These numbers seem to indicate an increase in deaths, first by 5k, then 10k, then 13k. But what about adjusting for population growth? I wish a true statistician would look at these figures, but here's the best I can do.
Population growth in the United States from 2019 to 2020 is 0.59%, however I'm not entirely sure if it's mathematically sound to multiple the 2019 deaths by 1.0059 to arrive at a 2020-adjusted figure. If it is correct, then those 2020-adjusted numbers are as follows:
What would make these figures meaningful would be including the last 10+ years into the calculation in order to take into account any sort of standard deviation.
Anybody with more experience/knowledge in this area, please feel free to chime in to educate me and everyone else!
This is what I've been waiting for. All cause mortality numbers. Please source, as others have asked. If the numbers were that high they'd be screaming them. Heck, we'd believe them. Are more people actually dying this year than others? Me thinks not.
The 2018-19 flu season was bad, worse than Covid it seems