The poll can be found here

Near the bottom of the article.

So far, 40% of Biden voters say they've already voted, vs. 14% of Trump voters. Only 33% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Election Day, but 66% of Trump backers plan to do so.

40% of Biden voters have already voted, and only 14% of Trump voters have.

Apply these percentages to the actual early voting data from TargetSmart. This data includes a breakdown of all early voting so far by party where available, and modeled by party where it's not available.

National numbers so far:

Democrat votes: 13,310,078 (51.3%) Republican votes: 9,972,351 (38.4%) Unaffiliated votes: 2,678,478 (10.3%)

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Now, split the unaffiliated voters 50/50 and you get.

Democrat: 14,649,317 Republican: 11,311,590

Assume Biden is getting all of the Democrat votes and Trump is getting all Republican votes.

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So based on the data from the IDB/TIPP poll, Biden's 14,649,317 votes represent 40% of his ultimate total.

14,649,317 * (1 / .40) = 36,623,293 total votes

Trump's 11,311,590 votes represent 14% of his ultimate total.

9,086,318 * (1 / .14) = 80,797,071 total votes

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Let's assume the poll is off and actually 35% of Biden's voters have voted already, and 20% of Trump's voters have voted.

14,649,317 * (1 / .35) = 41,855,191 total votes

9,086,318 * (1 / .20) = 56,557,950 total votes

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Based on this, Trump will have a massive lead, even accounting for errors in the numbers.