I think the walkaways are what broke the algorithm. They expected all the Rs to vote for Trump and X% of the Independents, which is easily fixed with their weighted voting shift.

But Ds that voted for Trump were unexpected. They probably anticipated a Biden vote or no vote at all.

I think the walkaways are what broke the algorithm. The expected all the Rs to vote for Trump and X% of the Independents, which is easily fixed with their weighted voting shift.

But Ds that voted for Trump were unexpected. They probably anticipated a Biden vote or no vote at all.