Some interesting points, and possibly valid.

u/rooftoptendie posted this analysis last night

I used to think that that was where it was gonna get messy... if it was somehow leos vs patriots.

But now after this past few weeks... I think the civil war they want is totally off the table for good. If they want to go hot, all it will ever be is an insurrection. For there to be a civil war, you have to have two ideological sides that people naturally are split over.

But play it out in your mind... and what you get is this:

Moderate dems, upper class libs, disaffected progs ---> will absolutely NOT lift a finger for Joe and the Ho. So there is a slice off the top of their numbers.

Out of who is left who would fight, you have dayplayers of the DSA, pantyfa, and useful anarchist prog variety.... and then you have your imported trained color rev terrorists, ms 13 mercenaries and released felons, your junkies and wasteoids, and your mentally retarded. So as soon as hotness breaks out, all the dayplayers will get one taste of war and they'll be outta that pool faster than a wojack with aids.

Then you have the support for "la resistance" which is coming mainly from CCP. CCP will have to decide how far it will go to back its play. And as soon as people on their side realize they are fighting side by side with, or recieving shipments straight from CCP... well that's gonna put a big fat dent in morale, and be terrible for optics.

Basically as soon as it gets hot, the optics change drastically into something no amount of media can control. And they will look like the baddies and won't be able to hide it. Chinese money and an army of imported criminal thugs. Not a good look.

So they'd be leaking - nay, hemorrhaging - support from the time they busted out. That is not a good first foot forward. So normally a civil war has two huge and distinct sides. This one has only a faction of the population's support, nowhere near half. So what we have here, is a failure to civilwar. Therefore, it can only ever be an insurrection. They'll never get their civil war now no matter what they do. That option is off the table now.

So the LEO's would end up with each individual leo picking their side almost immediately and staying there. I don't even think it would be a big factor in the whole deal.

How do you see that in comparison to the situation you described?

Some interesting points, and possibly valid.

u/rooftoptendie posted this analysis last night

I used to think that that was where it was gonna get messy... if it was somehow leos vs patriots.

But now after this past few weeks... I think the civil war they want is totally off the table for good. If they want to go hot, all it will ever be is an insurrection. For there to be a civil war, you have to have two ideological sides that people naturally are split over.

But play it out in your mind... and what you get is this:

Moderate dems, upper class libs, disaffected progs ---> will absolutely NOT lift a finger for Joe and the Ho. So there is a slice off the top of their numbers.

.Out of who is left who would fight, you have dayplayers of the DSA, pantyfa, and useful anarchist prog variety.... and then you have your imported trained color rev terrorists, ms 13 mercenaries and released felons, your junkies and wasteoids, and your mentally retarded. So as soon as hotness breaks out, all the dayplayers will get one taste of war and they'll be outta that pool faster than a wojack with aids.

Then you have the support for "la resistance" which is coming mainly from CCP. CCP will have to decide how far it will go to back its play. And as soon as people on their side realize they are fighting side by side with, or recieving shipments straight from CCP... well that's gonna put a big fat dent in morale, and be terrible for optics.

Basically as soon as it gets hot, the optics change drastically into something no amount of media can control. And they will look like the baddies and won't be able to hide it. Chinese money and an army of imported criminal thugs. Not a good look.

So they'd be leaking - nay, hemorrhaging - support from the time they busted out. That is not a good first foot forward. So normally a civil war has two huge and distinct sides. This one has only a faction of the population's support, nowhere near half. So what we have here, is a failure to civilwar. Therefore, it can only ever be an insurrection. They'll never get their civil war now no matter what they do. That option is off the table now.

So the LEO's would end up with each individual leo picking their side almost immediately and staying there. I don't even think it would be a big factor in the whole deal.

How do you see that in comparison to the situation you described?

Some interesting points, and possibly valid.

u/rooftoptendie posted this analysis last night

I used to think that that was where it was gonna get messy... if it was somehow leos vs patriots.

But now after this past few weeks... I think the civil war they want is totally off the table for good. If they want to go hot, all it will ever be is an insurrection. For there to be a civil war, you have to have two ideological sides that people naturally are split over.

But play it out in your mind... and what you get is this:

Moderate dems, upper class libs, disaffected progs ---> will absolutely NOT lift a finger for Joe and the Ho. So there is a slice off the top of their numbers.

.Out of who is left who would fight, you have dayplayers of the DSA, pantyfa, and useful anarchist prog variety.... and then you have your imported trained color rev terrorists, ms 13 mercenaries and released felons, your junkies and wasteoids, and your mentally retarded. So as soon as hotness breaks out, all the dayplayers will get one taste of war and they'll be outta that pool faster than a wojack with aids.

Then you have the support for "la resistance" which is coming mainly from CCP. CCP will have to decide how far it will go to back its play. And as soon as people on their side realize they are fighting side by side with, or recieving shipments straight from CCP... well that's gonna put a big fat dent in morale, and be terrible for optics.

Basically as soon as it gets hot, the optics change drastically into something no amount of media can control. And they will look like the baddies and won't be able to hide it. Chinese money and an army of imported criminal thugs. Not a good look.

So they'd be leaking - nay, hemorrhaging - support from the time they busted out. That is not a good first foot forward. So normally a civil war has two huge and distinct sides. This one has only a faction of the population's support, nowhere near half. So what we have here, is a failure to civilwar. Therefore, it can only ever be an insurrection. They'll never get their civil war now no matter what they do. That option is off the table now.

So the LEO's would end up with each individual leo picking their side almost immediately and staying there. I don't even think it would be a big factor in the whole deal.

How do you see that in comparison to the situation you described?

Some interesting points, and possibly valid.

u/rooftoptendies posted this analysis last night

I used to think that that was where it was gonna get messy... if it was somehow leos vs patriots.

But now after this past few weeks... I think the civil war they want is totally off the table for good. If they want to go hot, all it will ever be is an insurrection. For there to be a civil war, you have to have two ideological sides that people naturally are split over.

But play it out in your mind... and what you get is this:

Moderate dems, upper class libs, disaffected progs ---> will absolutely NOT lift a finger for Joe and the Ho. So there is a slice off the top of their numbers.

.Out of who is left who would fight, you have dayplayers of the DSA, pantyfa, and useful anarchist prog variety.... and then you have your imported trained color rev terrorists, ms 13 mercenaries and released felons, your junkies and wasteoids, and your mentally retarded. So as soon as hotness breaks out, all the dayplayers will get one taste of war and they'll be outta that pool faster than a wojack with aids.

Then you have the support for "la resistance" which is coming mainly from CCP. CCP will have to decide how far it will go to back its play. And as soon as people on their side realize they are fighting side by side with, or recieving shipments straight from CCP... well that's gonna put a big fat dent in morale, and be terrible for optics.

Basically as soon as it gets hot, the optics change drastically into something no amount of media can control. And they will look like the baddies and won't be able to hide it. Chinese money and an army of imported criminal thugs. Not a good look.

So they'd be leaking - nay, hemorrhaging - support from the time they busted out. That is not a good first foot forward. So normally a civil war has two huge and distinct sides. This one has only a faction of the population's support, nowhere near half. So what we have here, is a failure to civilwar. Therefore, it can only ever be an insurrection. They'll never get their civil war now no matter what they do. That option is off the table now.

So the LEO's would end up with each individual leo picking their side almost immediately and staying there. I don't even think it would be a big factor in the whole deal.

How do you see that in comparison to the situation you described?