Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is very likely off by some degree, because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated. I almost went for only calculating the 16 that said Trump, but even that wouldn't be a perfectly calculated model, and the result was super similar anyway, basically like giving the Biden county 9/9 chance instead of 8/9. I ain't got time to do more studying lol, this was just to show the basic point.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is very likely a little off because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated. I almost went for only calculating the 16 that said Trump, but even that wouldn't be a perfectly calculated model, and the result was super similar anyway, basically like giving the Biden county 9/9 chance instead of 8/9. I ain't got time to do more studying lol, this was just to show the basic point.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is very likely a little off because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated. I almost went for only calculating the 16 that said Trump, but even that wouldn't be a perfectly calculated model, and it was very close to the same result anyway. I ain't got time to do more studying lol, this was just to show the basic point.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is very likely a little off because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated. I almost went for only calculating the 16 that said Trump, but even that wouldn't be a perfectly calculated model. I ain't got time to do more studying lol, this was just to show the basic point.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is a little off because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated. I almost went for only calculating the 16 that said Trump, but even that wouldn't be a perfectly calculated model. I ain't got time to do more studying lol, this was just to show the basic point.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.

Edit: And yes I know my math is a little off because I should be calculating the probability of having a set where one actually was "correct", but honestly statistics aren't my forte, and that's a lot of extra math. I just know that multiple events need to be calculated.

Of course it's "possible", any roll of a set of dice is technically possible. But what you're doing is looking at the overall odds, of them all being right 80-90% of the time, instead of splitting the 17, figuring out their separate, individual chances, and calculating the probability of them as a series of multiple events. It's far more complex than the flat 80% chance that you're trying to say.

What is the statistical chance that all but one of the 17, taken as a group, would suddenly flip like this? Like I said, calculate the odds for each county separately, and then calculate the serial possibility by that. Apparently 12 of the bellwether states have been right 100% of the time from 1984 to 2016, so that's 0/9 times incorrect. But just to be generous to you, we'll say they have a 1/9 chance in being incorrect separately. The remaining five bellwether have been incorrect only one time each, so again, 1/9 chance of being incorrect. And we'll enter the one that DID say "Biden" in as an 8/9 chance. Just for grins. So, 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 1/9 x 8/9 equals....

0.000000000000048%.

Yes, who votes for who is far more complex than pure mathematics. But you're the one trying to argue FOR pure mathematics, and you're not even doing it right.