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Reason: None provided.

The battleground states they polled (and the electoral votes):

  • Arizona, 11
  • Colorado, 9
  • Florida, 29
  • Georgia, 16
  • Maine, 4
  • Michigan, 16
  • Minnesota, 10
  • Nevada, 6
  • New Hampshire, 4
  • New Mexico, 5
  • North Carolina, 15
  • Ohio, 18
  • Pennsylvania, 20
  • Virginia, 13
  • Wisconsin, 10

I'd really like to see the cross-tabs for the states. But, they didn't publish them. I'm not sure it would have made a difference, because the number of people polled was small: a total of 1,112 adults, including 583 adults in the battleground states.

Margin of error: +/- 3.7% for the full sample, +/- 5.3% for the battleground states. This means that the difference between Trump and Biden is within the MoE, in both samples.

Party identification: Among the entire sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party. This is close to what Pew Research reported in 2017: 33% D, 26% R, 37% I.

Getting all that out of the way, these states in the above list voted for Hillary in 2016:

  • Colorado
  • Maine
  • Minnesota
  • New Hampshire
  • New Mexico
  • Virginia
1 year ago
1 score
Reason: Original

The battleground states they polled (and the electoral votes):

  • Arizona, 11
  • Colorado, 9
  • Florida, 29
  • Georgia, 16
  • Maine, 4
  • Michigan, 16
  • Minnesota, 10
  • Nevada, 6
  • New Hampshire, 4
  • New Mexico, 5
  • North Carolina, 15
  • Ohio, 18
  • Pennsylvania, 20
  • Virginia, 13
  • Wisconsin, 10

I'd really like to see the cross-tabs for the states. But, they didn't publish them. I'm not sure it would have made a difference, because the number of people polled was small: a total of 1,112 adults, including an oversample of 302 adults living in 15 battleground states.

Party identification: Among the entire sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party. This is close to what Pew Research reported in 2017: 33% D, 26% R, 37% I.

Getting all that out of the way, these states in the above list voted for Hillary in 2016:

  • Colorado
  • Maine
  • Minnesota
  • New Hampshire
  • New Mexico
  • Virginia

November is looking pretty good for Trump.

1 year ago
1 score