Election night turnout in 2016 was 35% Democrat, 33% Republican and 32% Independent.

Assuming the turnout is identical in November then they are under sampling Independents by 8 points and oversampling Democrats by 5 points. This is the equivalent of a 3-4 point increase for Trump.

Therefore the actual poll result is +2-3 Biden which is identical to 2016 with Hilary. The electoral college will do the rest.

Election night turnout in 2016 was 35% Democrat, 33% Republican and 32% Independent.

Assuming the turnout is identical in November then they are under sampling Independents by 8 points (+3 points to Trump) and oversampling Democrats by 5 points (-5 points to Biden).

Therefore the actual poll result is +2 Trump.