Here’s how the statistical logic of the CDC Covid Co-morbidity Report DEVASTATES THE MEDIA’S HYSTERIA — AND ITS ATTEMPTED RESPONSE
CDC Report: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Typical Media Response: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/01/fact-check-cdcs-data-covid-19-deaths-used-misleading-claims/5681686002/
TLDR: Don’t get hung up on the 6% without other conditions. The real damage of this report is that it proves that the Chinese virus ISN’T likely to be the biggest factor in causing most of the other cases, either!
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc. But the reverse is also true.
We’ve all heard stories about how anyone with a single symptom could be classified as a ‘Covid death’, and saw the change to ‘with Covid’. The listed co-morbidities can’t directly answer whether or not Covid caused a heart attack or a person WITH Covid HAD a heart attack. But reported in aggregate, they can be analyzed statistically to show what’s highly probable. And that’s why this report is such a big deal.
The likelihood of Covid causing any given heart attack decreases with the number of other co-morbidities. If I claimed that a car accident caused my heart attack, but then you found out I was also diabetic and had blood clots, you’d correctly suspect that the heart attack was more likely to be related to one or both those conditions.
For any individual case, you still might not be able to tell, even with two or three other conditions. Maybe the doctor was writing down all the possibilities or something. But if almost all (94%) of the cases have between 2-3 other conditions? It tells you that the likelihood of the other co-morbidities being caused as a direct result of Covid are extremely low.
Taken all together, this is a complete, hard-to-fake set of data with a strong correlation to observable reality, reported by doctors contemporaneously at the time of death, that doesn’t rely on ‘interpretation’ or any single gatekeeper’s subjectivity, that shows that not only is death from Covid alone rare, but that Covid is unlikely to be the greatest single factor of most of the other deaths to which it contributed.
This is why they fear this report. It’s what they’ve been hiding to keep letting them count ‘with-Covid’ deaths as ‘Covid’ deaths
Here’s how the logic of this Report DEVASTATES THE MEDIA HYSTERIA:
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is *a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc. But the reverse is also true.
We’ve all heard stories about how anyone with a single symptom could be classified as a ‘Covid death’, and saw the change to ‘with Covid’. The listed co-morbidities can’t directly answer whether or not Covid caused a heart attack or a person WITH Covid HAD a heart attack. But reported in aggregate, they can be analyzed statistically to show what’s highly probable. And that’s why this report is such a big deal.
The likelihood of Covid causing any given heart attack decreases with the number of other co-morbidities. If I claimed that a car accident caused my heart attack, but then you found out I was also diabetic and had blood clots, you’d correctly suspect that the heart attack was more likely to be related to one or both those conditions.
For any individual case, you still might not be able to tell, even with two or three other conditions. Maybe the doctor was writing down all the possibilities or something. But if almost all (94%) of the cases have between 2-3 other conditions? It tells you that the likelihood of the other co-morbidities being caused as a direct result of Covid are extremely low.
Taken all together, this is a complete, hard-to-fake set of data with a strong correlation to observable reality, reported by doctors contemporaneously at the time of death, that doesn’t rely on ‘interpretation’ or any single gatekeeper’s subjectivity, that shows that not only is death from Covid alone rare, but that Covid is unlikely to be the greatest single factor of most of the other deaths to which it contributed.
This is why they fear this report. It’s what they’ve been hiding to keep letting them count ‘with-Covid’ deaths as ‘Covid’ deaths
Here’s the ACTUAL LOGIC:
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is *a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc. But the reverse is also true.
We’ve all heard stories about how anyone with a single symptom could be classified as a ‘Covid death’, and saw the change to ‘with Covid’. The listed co-morbidities can’t directly answer whether or not Covid caused a heart attack or a person WITH Covid HAD a heart attack. But reported in aggregate, they can be analyzed statistically to show what’s highly probable. And that’s why this report is such a big deal.
The likelihood of Covid causing any given heart attack decreases with the number of other co-morbidities. If I claimed that a car accident caused my heart attack, but then you found out I was also diabetic and had blood clots, you’d correctly suspect that the heart attack was more likely to be related to one or both those conditions.
For any individual case, you still might not be able to tell, even with two or three other conditions. Maybe the doctor was writing down all the possibilities or something. But if almost all (94%) of the cases have between 2-3 other conditions? It tells you that the likelihood of the other co-morbidities being caused as a direct result of Covid are extremely low.
Taken all together, this is a complete, hard-to-fake set of data with a strong correlation to observable reality, reported by doctors contemporaneously at the time of death, that doesn’t rely on ‘interpretation’ or any single gatekeeper’s subjectivity, that shows that not only is death from Covid alone rare, but that Covid is unlikely to be the greatest single factor of most of the other deaths to which it contributed.
This is why they fear this report. It’s what they’ve been hiding to keep letting them count ‘with-Covid’ deaths as ‘Covid’ deaths
Here’s the ACTUAL LOGIC:
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is *a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc. But the reverse is also true.
We’ve all heard stories about how anyone with a single symptom could be classified as a ‘Covid death’, and saw the change to ‘with Covid’. The listed co-morbidities can’t directly answer whether or not Covid caused a heart attack or a person WITH Covid HAD a heart attack. But reported in aggregate, they can be analyzed statistically to show what’s highly probable. And that’s why this report is such a big deal.
The likelihood of Covid causing any given heart attack decreases with the number of other co-morbidities. If I claimed that a car accident caused my heart attack, but then you found out I was also diabetic and had blood clots, you’d correctly suspect that the heart attack was more likely to be related to one or both those conditions.
For any individual case, you still might not be able to tell, even with two or three other conditions. Maybe the doctor was writing down all the possibilities or something. But if almost all (94%) of the cases have between 2-3 other conditions? It tells you that the likelihood of the other co-morbidities being caused as a direct result of Covid are extremely low.
Taken all together, this is a complete, hard-to-fake set of data with a strong correlation to observable reality, reported by doctors contemporaneously at the time of death, that doesn’t rely on ‘interpretation’ or any single gatekeeper’s subjectivity, that shows that not only is death from Covid alone rare, but that Covid is unlikely to be the greatest single factor of most of the other deaths to which it contributed.
This is why they fear this report. It’s what they’ve been hiding to keep letting them count ‘with-Covid’ deaths as ‘Covid’ deaths
Here’s the ACTUAL LOGIC: DRAFT
Most people will look at these co-morbidities and focus on muh 6% from Covid! without grasping the full picture which is a bit more complex but also makes a stronger argument.
Firstly, this is not a study, it’s a report. So there’s no sample sizes or margin of error; the only error is introduced by misreporting or miscategorizing deaths.
Using Deaths as a sample population to lock reported numbers to measurable reality as an indication of Covid trends is good, because unlike numbers of cases or hospitalizations, it’s difficult to artificially inflate raw number of deaths unless you’re willing to actually kill real people (such as vulnerable populations in nursing homes, for instance). It’s also hard to deflate deaths, because you have to get rid of all the bodies and cover-up that a a whole bunch of people are disappearing. That means data that is harder to fake
And these cause of deaths reports were recorded by doctors at the time of death. That means any incentive to create phony entries was present at the time when the classification was recorded in the hospital or morgue, and the financial (more reimbursement), political (health agency classification guidance or directives) and medical (err on the side of caution, false positive tests, broad inclusion of symptoms) incentives at the time were all in favor of overclassification as Covid-positive. That means it doesn’t matter that a Trump appointee is releasing the information — it’s not the appointee making the classifications or ‘interpreting’ them
A co-morbidity is a condition present at the time of death that may have contributed to the death. So you can break your leg with a compound fracture that could have killed you, but die of a heart attack instead, and the fracture might be listed as a co-morbidity. More often, the co-morbidity is *a related underlying condition that aggravates or contributes to the cause of death, like diabetes as a co-morbidity to heart disease.
And sometimes, a co-morbidity can lead to the cause of death, like a bee allergy leading to a swollen airway and asphyxiation. Novel Coronavirus does have effects like this. It can cause a chain reaction that leads to swelling of tissue in the lungs and heart, which causes conditions which could be classified independently as heart attack, Severe Respiratory Distress, Pulminary Disease, etc.
DRAFTING