I don't get why Nate Silver is held up as a standard by the left anyway. He predicted 2004, 2008 and 2012. He received accolades for his 2008 projections. Anyone with an ounce of integrity knew Obama was going to beat McCain by comfortable margins.

The polls never corrected for Trump's 3% marginal boost and now it's worse because Trump supporters are 2.5x more likely to not answer polls. There's also far more dissatisfied Tim Pool types out there. That means the Independents and Republicans they are getting probably qualify as more moderate than his core base.

I don't get why Nate Silver is held up as a standard by the left anyway. He predicted 2004, 2008 and 2012. He received accolades for his 2008 projections. Anyone with an ounce of integrity knew Obama was going to beat McCain by comfortable margins.

The polls never corrected for Trump's 3% margin and now it's worse because Trump supporters are 2.5x more likely to not answer polls. That means the Independents and Republicans they are getting probably qualify as more moderate than his core base.