Id argue ny is more in play than nj

It'd like to hear those arguments.

Trump got 41.35% in NJ in 2016. Central NJ has a rapidly growing Orthodox Jewish community (over 95% pro-Trump), and lots of Italians angry about Columbus. It reelected Chris Christie for governor in a landslide in 2013.

Trump got 36.52% in NY state in 2016. NY has a more Dem-slanted PVI, and a higher percentage of population growth comes from immigrants and ethnic groups less likely to support Trump. A lot of immigrants move to NY first, and are more likely to move out if they're not total commies. Not counting Never-Trumper Pataki, NY didn't have a Republican governor since the 70s (and they probably would have been Never-Trumpers too).

Id argue ny is more in play than nj

It'd like to hear those arguments.

Trump got 41.35% in NJ in 2016. NJ has a rapidly growing Orthodox Jewish community (over 95% pro-Trump) and Italians angry about Columbus. It reelected Chris Christie for governor in a landslide in 2013.

Trump got 36.52% in NY state in 2016. NY has less of the pro-Trump ethnic groups as percentage of its population, so more population growth comes from immigrants and ethnic groups less likely to support Trump. A lot of immigrants move to NY first, and are more likely to move out if they're not total commies. Not counting Never-Trumper Pataki, NY didn't have a Republican governor since the 70s (and they probably would have been Never-Trumpers too).