Autist checking in here.
Quick take on the above.
I would provide a little more context for the argument, specifically in comparisons to previous years, and presenting the p-value clearly reading up on Roukema's analysis of the 2009 Iranian elections would be a good start.
I would be unconvinced by an argument on these grounds however from a purely mathematical perspective - we wouldn’t expect the model to really be true with actual votes, in the words of Monty Python "it's only a model", I suggest this for further reading which is a direct response to the above
I'm not saying the analysis is without value however, those who did the work deserve credit. But you have much stronger arguments elsewhere.
Autist checking in here.
Quick take on the above.
I would provide a little more context for the argument, specifically in comparisons to previous years, and presenting the p-value clearly reading up on Roukema's analysis of the 2009 Iranian elections would be a good start.
I would be unconvinced by an argument on these grounds however from a purely mathematical perspective - we wouldn’t expect the model to really be true with actual votes, in the words of Monty Python "it's only a model", or as this paper - a direct response to the above
, tests such as tests of the distribution of the digits in the counts against the distribution expected according to Benford’s Law are not particularly diagnostic: the large aggregates mix together such a heterogeneity of local events that conformity with Benford’s Law is to be expected even if locally there are many problems
I'm not saying the analysis is without value however, those who did the work deserve credit. But you have much stronger arguments elsewhere.
Autist checking in here.
Quick take on the above.
I would provide a little more context for the argument, specifically in comparisons to previous years, and presenting the p-value clearly reading up on Roukema's analysis of the 2009 Iranian elections will show the level of detail that we need to go to.
I would be unconvinced by an argument on these grounds however from a purely mathematical perspective - we wouldn’t expect the model to really be true with actual votes, in the words of Monty Python "it's only a model", or as this paper - a direct response to the above
, tests such as tests of the distribution of the digits in the counts against the distribution expected according to Benford’s Law are not particularly diagnostic: the large aggregates mix together such a heterogeneity of local events that conformity with Benford’s Law is to be expected even if locally there are many problems
I'm not saying the analysis is without value however, those who did the work deserve credit.