CNN was talking about Pima County, which is the most democratic in the state. Crude math, it seems like roughly 450,000 votes have been counted there, which is already 100k more than in 2016. I understand this is a high turnout election, but I do wonder if there's that much more there. Also noteworthy is that Trump is slightly underperforming 2016 in Pima. So if there's a small number of votes left there, might not break that heavily towards Biden.

Nevada

Yes, even if everything plays out the way the Campaign insisted, it's gonna be awfully close.

Fox News

So I think NC and GA are in the bag.

It's not an OR though. With those 2, we still need PA + Arizona.

Now the thing is I think as long as we get NC, GA, and PA, it doesn't have to be AZ. It can be NV.

Now another option is if GA is stolen, can still win if we get AZ AND NV.

But I think PA is a must in any scenario.

WOW, I think the campaign actually said they are expecting a 60/40 for Trump split with the remaining votes. This is going to be really really close...

Uhh... so it seems like this initial dump was mostly Maricopa County and Trump actually gained. Also according to Fox's map the only counties left with votes to count are red leaning counties...

Something really might be up here.

I think the Congressional districts made that an impossibility

I'm cautiously optimistic about AZ. I thought it was really interesting that the campaign came out so hard regarding their internals showing a win in AZ without being so adamant about Nevada.

Seems like they truly are extremely confident about AZ.

You are getting downvoted, but I agree. To some extent this election was also a repudiation of the far left from moderate and conservative voters. Picking up seats in the House and keeping the Senate are fairly big "upsets" in the context of a potential POTUS loss.

Considering midterms usually break hard against the incumbent president's party, yea, 2022 could be huge for the GOP.

Am I right? Seems like Trump made up about 25k in Arizona, and it was all in Maricopa County.

Isn't this exactly what the campaign said? That those late ballots in Maricopa were going to buck the national trend and tilt towards Trump?

Wait, Nevada?! When did this happen?

Don't give up yet my man. At least YOLO it up and go out fighting.

Yea luckily I don't have kids either. Just gonna YOLO it up and ride it out until the end.

Those two states are gone. We have to hope for a miracle from Nevada or Arizona at this point.

MI is done. A lot of Wayne County precincts haven't even reported.

Both states are done, sadly. The County Clerk or whatever is on CNN, a lot of their precincts in Wayne County haven't even reported.

WI and MI are blue.

Still seeing a lead of over 200k?

Milwaukee is 100% in, done. Still waiting on some Red counties to finish up. Even CNN sounds nervous.

Yes, I think we are in this.

Milwaukee County is DONE. 100% in. We might still be in this as the rest of the vote is all red counties according to CNN.

Is it even mathematically possible for Biden to make up a 650,000 vote difference in PA?

Too early in Michigan? Big lead, and it was one of those states people were talking about early on when looking early voting by party registration.

I'm interested in even some of these solid red areas reporting early, to see the margin.

I had this argument with a friend, we'll find out eventually. It seemed pretty well established even among Liberals that Trump was doing well with Latinos in Florida, specifically Cubans and Venezuelans.

But the liberal media (and my friend) are arguing these Latinos are different from, say, Mexicans in Arizona.

While that's true, I doubt Trump is going to outperform 2016 among Latinos in Florida and not have that translate somewhat to the broader Latino population. Especially due to issues like Socialism, law&order, etc.

Trump is not going to win the Latino vote in Arizona, but I am going to bet he does better than in 2016. And this will hold up in every state imo.