Cheers! I always look forward to waking up to catch up on the news of the day so far. Hopefully this is a juicy one.

Sorry to keep you waiting folks - complicated business.

Something BIBLICAL.

Mark Thomsen is ree-ing hard on the livestream kek

Shit me too! I just hope they don't close the book before litigation happens.

Tweet is recent but it looks like the data is from Oct 16? Am I reading it correctly?

This is modelled data not actual data, be careful. The screenshots reference the Targetsmart modelling source.

While it looks positive, disregard and vote anyway. The big delta you've identified in PA is due to no IPEV data, there is only mail-in ballot data in the PA model.

Cheers! Just what I needed.

Can you link to the article where this came from? I can't find it.

I'm having the discussion with a mate at the moment and while this infographic is helpful, it could be clearer how this results in the magic "$750" number being parroted.

I agree the graphic makes sense when looking and you already know the context, but to others that need to be lead by the nose I just want a bit more info with it.

This is the content I really like to see on here. I'd be really interested to see some other polling analysis to understand the other tricks they use, that way I can do my own analysis (and convince others).

So how the heck did he get that if it wasn't on the laptop? Does he have another line of evidence? What else has he got icloud access or something??

A couple of small bets on EC totals.

Yeah I dropped $5k over several bets in 2016 and cleared more than $20k return... I guess I'm somewhat partially to blame for the low thresholds this time around.

If you want to watch go to whoa, block out your day essentially.

I'm in Adelaide - I took the day off in 2016 to watch the results come in (and my sportsbet investments pay out!).

The first polls closed around 9.30-10am my time, but you won't have any meaningful results, other than exit polls, until a few hours after. In 2016, the election was called about 12 hours after the first polls closed so late evening over here.

You could safely tune in at lunchtime for the first results, crack a few beers and kick on until bedtime.

I had a mix of fox and rsbn coverage going on my TV back then, I'm hoping with the rise of twitch streaming since 2016 there will be someone aggregating different feeds from across the political spectrum. That way you won't miss out on any real time salt.

Good luck!

Legend. Thanks for your input!

Cheers.

Do you use exit polls or other public polling to track enthusiasm?

You're confusing liberals and conservatives. Nobody wants to kill you or cancel you here.

Conservatives think liberals are people who have bad ideas (disagreement with ideology).

Liberals think conservatives are bad people and don't care about their ideas, because they come from bad people.